On Friday, March 17, the UN Security Council approved the resolution for the establishment of NO FLY ZONE over Libya. The main objective of the military action was protecting of the civilians from the threat of the Gaddafi's army and the militia. The wording of the resolution included "...by all means necessary..." which opens the possibilities of targeting not only anti-aircraft weapons, but also any heavy armor, and the artillery of all sorts. The only restriction included prohibiting the "occupying forces". This line alone could be interpreted as allowing for the 'special forces' actions, or temporary military reinforcements of the opposition forces by the coalition troops (although this interpretation was initially dismissed by the Coalition).
It's been four days of heavy bombardment of the Libya's military installations located in the West of the country, including the capital city - Tripoli. To the general surprise, the first news on Saturday provided information of the unilateral French Air-force action, during which 24 of the French fighter-jets obliterated Gaddafi's forces trying to repossess Benghazi. The smoldering remains of the armored vehicles and personnel transporters as well as heavy artillery stood a somber witness of the Coalition punishing hand.
After the four nights, and more than 160 Cruise missiles delivered with the surgical precision to the designated military targets, the Gaddafi's army has been deprived from any own air-force and generally blinded in respect to the Coalition air power enforcing the No-Fly Zone over Libya. However, no military campaign is safe, even when the technological superiority is as overwhelming as in the case of the Libyan conflict. Even after destroying Gaddafi's air-defenses no allied plane is completely secure, can be hit 'accidentally' by a shoulder-to-air missile or even a small arms fire... or suffer the technical difficulties as in the case of one of American F15 fighter-jets which crashed in a vicinity of Benghazi. Fortunately, both crewmen who ejected when the problem occurred, have been recovered (one by the Marines Recovery Team, and the other by the rebel forces).
In the five days since the UN No-Fly Zone Resolution, Colonel Gaddafi confirmed again and again his untrustworthy status, offering already twice a cease-fire, while his forces were in the process of attacking the rebel-controlled cities. It seems that the concept of TRUTH is completely foreign to all of the Mid-Eastern Dictators (already fallen or in the process of being toppled, from Ali, Mubarak, Gaddafi, to Saleh). After a few days absence from the spot light, Colonel Gaddafi spoke to a small group of his supporters tonight. As always defiant, and melodramatic, he shouted repeatably that "he was not afraid of the imperialistic intervention and he would be victorious at the end".
While Gaddafi indulged the Libyan State TV viewers with the usual clownish performance, CNN aired the interview with Secretary Clinton who hinted that there were already some 'behind the scenes' communications with the Gaddafi's regime in regard of "the options" which would be still open for the deposed Dictator.
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Let's have a closer look at the Coalition role in imposing the UN Resolution, and all it's implications.
Although the UN Mandate covers only "humanitarian" action, directed in crippling the Government forces and their abilities to harm the civilians, all the involved powers state that at the end Gaddafi would have to GO. Even considering the UN Mandate very precisely, leaving Gaddafi in power (like Hussein in Iraq after the 1st Gulf War) would have the dire consequences to the population of Libya. Gaddafi "promised" already several times, that he "would go door to door" and punish all the opposition members. In this aspect, I wouldn't dismiss it like all the lies he utters on other occasions. His track record proves it. There is no doubt - in order to prevent a genocide in Libya, Gaddafi must be removed from power. At the same time Colonel Gaddafi has not been designated as a target. According to the letter of the Resolution and the general understanding of the Coalition intentions, the Dictator has to be removed from power by the Libyans themselves.
So far, after 4 days of the "Operation Odyssey Dawn", the USA leads the action delivering the most of the missile strikes, as well as technical "know-how", jamming, logistics, air-tankers for the Coalition planes. The initial military involvement of the US forces was supposed to be eventually substituted by the NATO armies enhanced by participation of the Arab countries (as we already know - very limited Arab countries participation - 4 fighter jets from Qatar). It has been known from the very beginning of the operation that the US wouldn't want to lead yet another assault on another Arab Country. However, there is a split of opinions between the members of the NATO, on a subject "who would lead the operation", as well as any particular responsibilities of the Coalition members.
It seems, that the NATO members, being the sovereign countries themselves, may decide on their own if they would like to pursue any additional objectives, not included in the general operational goal by the Command of the Operation. It opens the option of active actions against the Dictator and his family personally by any Coalition member on it's own.
Gaddafi's propaganda machine already accused Denmark of being on a Crusade against him, after the Danish Cruise missiles hit one of the buildings in his compound.
Coalition missiles and planes have been very successful in destroying Gaddafi's air defenses, air-force, as well some of the heavy armor and artillery in the vicinity of the rebel stronghold, Benghazi. Any military convoy in this desert country is a fair game for the Coalition fighter-jets. However, it becomes obvious, that Gaddafi's forces adapted to the imposed conditions already, operating their tanks and the artillery pieces in the rebel controlled territories, hiding within the civilian settlements. One can not forget about the government 'sleeper cells', consisting of well armed ground troops, but including also some tanks and mortars, which (as reported from Benghazi) can operate against the opposition forces within the cities.
It has been anticipated that while the Western forces pound the Gaddafi's defenses, some members of the close to the Dictator circles might actively help in removing the Tyrant. Although some of the army units and the high rank officers defected to the opposition, the awaited coup hasn't happened. Maybe it's due to the fear of failure, and swift punishment, or the fear to be persecuted and punished by the opposition, for already committed atrocities.
It becomes more and more likely, that if Gaddafi doesn't surrender and doesn't leave, the conflict (including the Coalition involvement) might be prolonged indefinitely, or might require the dreaded ground operation. In the latter case the political consequences of such action may be very difficult to deal with, starting from the protests form Arab League and all already opposed countries like Russia, China..., but also the public opinion shift in the Arab countries which would be devastating. Not even considering the popular opposition within the participating countries...
So, what is the plan? Do we have the plan B if Colonel Gaddafi is more stubborn and defiant than anticipated?
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The opposition within the participating countries has already started, at least in the USA.
Although almost 44% of the population supports the decision of joining the fight against Gaddafi, the same amount of the population opposes it. This by itself is not that harmful. However the split in the American Congress is much more significant and dangerous.
When Pres. Obama was debating if at all join the UN effort in creating the No-Fly Zone, some republican Senators (like Sen. John McCain, from Arizona) were criticizing the President for the indecision, playing the high note of the Principles of Democracy and the moral obligation of such countries like America...
Now, on both sides of the isle the Senators and Representatives raise their contemptuous voices. To everybody's surprise Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D. from Ohio) accused the president of the unconstitutional decision, when he "failed" to ask the Congress of the USA if to "go to war against Libya".
Unfortunately, looking at the political conditions in the US, one may conclude that no matter what would the President chose, the Washington politicians would criticize it and oppose it only because it was decided by the President who, for one reason or another, they hate. Outside of Washington, the Obama's popular approval is much better (Gallup weekly approval rating is 48% - 3% higher than Clinton's in a similar period of his presidency)
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It brings us to the last question, initiated in the title of this article: Should we be there (Libya) at all?
I quoted already the popular approval of 44% for the American involvement in the imposing of the UN Resolution 1973. What makes the Libyan situation worthy the commitment of American resources and putting the troops in a harm's way? What makes the other international situations in which the genocide occurs NOT worthy our involvement?
All the presidents sang the "Democracy" song very loud. It helped the Eastern Block countries to overturn the communist regimes and enter the new, democratic era in their history.
The American and NATO involvement in the Balkans helped preventing unimaginable atrocities (although it escalated from the "no-fly zone"). We tried to maintain the peace in Somalia, but it backfired to the point of the shameful withdrawal, leaving the country in chaos - which developed into the fully fledged civil war.
And then, in 1994 came another African conflict - Rwanda, where within 100 days, the ethnic cleansing caused 800,000 dead and countless amount of wounded. No one reacted on time.
Few years later, in 2003 almost 400,000 people died and almost 2.5 million have been displaced as a result of of atrocities by the Sudanese government-sponsored Janjaweed militia. No one reacted on time.
There were conflicts in Kongo, Chad, Ivory Coast (current), Algeria (both decades ago, and current), and many others. What is the decisive factor making them actionable, or not?
Many critics of the policies of the Western countries would list THE OIL as this decisive factor. Oil definitely changes the perception of the country who owns a lot of it in the eye of the World. It was probably the only reason for the "liberation" of the Iraqis from the brutal Dictator - Saddam Husein.
However, I believe that it's much more complicated in other cases.
After failures to provide the assistance and stop the atrocities in Rwanda, or Darfur the possibility of genocide in Libya is the sufficient reason to do anything what is physically possible to prevent it (and I hope that the fact that Libya produces 2% of the World's oil is not the most important factor in this equation).
SLOGAN
- a tribute to the Social Media
A RIGHT WORD IS WORTH A THOUSAND PICTURES...
PAGES
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Libya - I am baffled and bewildered...
I am baffled and bewildered by an impasse in the UN Libyan talks, caused by a few undecided countries in the UN Security Council. While 3 weeks ago Gaddafi was pounding the opposition using his air force - all we heard from our media was: "unconfirmed reports suggest the use of the aircrafts against the civilian population...". We heard from our Leaders, that the "violence against civilians must stop...", and "all guilty of the war crimes will be brought to justice...". We heard: "we would impose the no-fly zone over Libya if only Arab League accepted it, and the atrocities were unquestionably high...".
On Saturday (03.12) the Arab League, after days of deliberation came with the unprecedented call - asking the Western World to impose the no-fly zone over Libya. There is no question if Gaddafi's forces use an aerial bombardments against the Opposition. There is no question if the Gaddafi's forces get the upper hand because of their military superiority AND the Western Indecision...
And now we hear that the no-fly zone wouldn't fix anything, it wouldn't prevent the massacre, because in this war Gaddafi is not relying solely on the aerial attacks, but uses the ground forces and the artillery. Of course, no one can deny that the Regime uses all the weapons in their arsenal including the tanks, heavy artillery, special forces... not only the air force. It is out of the question, but if deprived from the air superiority, with his air force being smashed to smithereens, and without any anti-air batteries, Gaddafi wouldn't be so cocky and defiant.
We were already talking about arming the rebels' army and providing them with any necessary supply and support. They have already proved that given a chance they can fight like the regular army. It has been surprising, to say the least, that they could stand against the Regime so strongly.
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Our coalition Armies attacked Iraq twice. First time to slap Saddam's hands for being a naughty boy and invading our ally - Kuwait. The second time on a quest for WMD - which the CIA couldn't find, no matter how meticulously they looked for them.
And then the deposing of the Dictator wasn't a bad idea, even though all experts knew that the power vacuum in this split ethnically country would have completely unpredictable consequences. And we did it nevertheless - with a clear vision of the spoils (an access to the Iraq's oil and plenty of lucrative contracts for Halliburton and the like...). Now, 10 years later we leave the damaged goods behind us.
Libya is a different story. We already learned (or we simply can't learn), that this Spring of Nations in Arab countries of the Middle East works on the different ground then the "specter of the Muslim radicalism" with which we have been threatened constantly, for decades. Although some Republicans in our country do not believe in it - the EVOLUTION is what creates changes in the world. This Evolution applies not only to the DNA of the particular species, but also, and maybe, above all, to the social DNA of the developing socially nations.
And so, the unruly, socially undeveloped, and for 42 years deprived from any real political life, Libya creates the National Council in the first 10 days of the uprising. For some reason, the Opposition is wise enough to use the people with the experience (they gained it in the Gaddafi's regime, yes, but they chose the opposition), who could fill the post-Gaddafi vacuum.
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I have been writing about this particular aspect of the Revolutions sweeping the Middle East from the very beginning. Nothing is as previously predicted. Nothing is the way it has been happening for decades. No single Anti-American demonstration, no flag burning. Quite a contrary, the reverence for the democratic principles for which the USA stands, and hope for help.
I couldn't believe how long it took to make a stand which allowed the Egyptian Army to end this Mubarak farce. Fortunately for the US, the events happened so fast, that even our indecision didn't ruin it. And now we can count on the fruitful cooperation with the democratic Egypt - probably the same way as previously on the ties with the Dictator. The same with Tunisia.
However in the case of Libya the story gets a bit more complicated. Gaddafi has never been a democratic Leader. In the beginning he lead the popular revolution, but soon enough he used the "Green Book" to muzzle any democratic forces in the country and successfully rid Libya of any subversive element...
Apparently not all of them have been lost, beaten, tortured, imprisoned, killed. Sweeping the Middle East (and not only), the wind of the modern, democratic ideas, found a fertile ground even under the repressive hand of the flamboyant buffoon - Dictator Colonel Gaddafi.
Unfortunately Gaddafi knows very well that before the Europe, UN, or even America can organize themselves to act against him, the rebellion will be OVER. He is very well aware of the powers he has, and how destructive can be the blows of his war machine. He has had enough time in his 34 years of defiance (before 2003 when he denounced terrorism for the benefit of the Western World) to know how long time is needed to debate on any important issues within the UN. Even knowing about his, not destroyed yet, 9 metric tons of the Mustard Gas doesn't speed up the process. And I thought that WMD is a term which always galvanizes the World's Leaders...
We all have to keep in mind that as fast as this revolution was ignited, that fast Gaddafi can defeat the Opposition forces ad bring back "the law and order", if he is left with a sufficient time to do so, and not stopped immediately.
When we lose time on pointless arguments, and despite the urgent calls of the Rebels and the Arab League, sit on our hands - we deliver the message to the World and in particular to the People of the Arab countries. And this is not the message we would like to send... In the meantime Gaddafi uses his air force as much as he can, decimating the rebels, systematically and on schedule. Schedule which he already knows by heart - The UN schedule.
A brilliant correspondent in Libya, Hoda Abdel-Hamid in her tweet on Wednesday afternoon asked: "The world needs to protect Benghazi if it really wants stability... or is it too uncomfortable to let go of #Libya's oil?".
Why do we have to ask this question. We, in Western World value greatly the principles of democracy. We have fought and have died for them...
And of course it helps when the object of our help and support provides us with a strong incentives to do so. But even in this context do not dismiss Libya all along. When/if the Opposition forces win and the New Libya (the one with 3 colored flag) revises their commercial obligations - I am pretty sure, that those who help them now wouldn't have to worry for the outcome of these revisions...
On Saturday (03.12) the Arab League, after days of deliberation came with the unprecedented call - asking the Western World to impose the no-fly zone over Libya. There is no question if Gaddafi's forces use an aerial bombardments against the Opposition. There is no question if the Gaddafi's forces get the upper hand because of their military superiority AND the Western Indecision...
And now we hear that the no-fly zone wouldn't fix anything, it wouldn't prevent the massacre, because in this war Gaddafi is not relying solely on the aerial attacks, but uses the ground forces and the artillery. Of course, no one can deny that the Regime uses all the weapons in their arsenal including the tanks, heavy artillery, special forces... not only the air force. It is out of the question, but if deprived from the air superiority, with his air force being smashed to smithereens, and without any anti-air batteries, Gaddafi wouldn't be so cocky and defiant.
We were already talking about arming the rebels' army and providing them with any necessary supply and support. They have already proved that given a chance they can fight like the regular army. It has been surprising, to say the least, that they could stand against the Regime so strongly.
-------------
Our coalition Armies attacked Iraq twice. First time to slap Saddam's hands for being a naughty boy and invading our ally - Kuwait. The second time on a quest for WMD - which the CIA couldn't find, no matter how meticulously they looked for them.
And then the deposing of the Dictator wasn't a bad idea, even though all experts knew that the power vacuum in this split ethnically country would have completely unpredictable consequences. And we did it nevertheless - with a clear vision of the spoils (an access to the Iraq's oil and plenty of lucrative contracts for Halliburton and the like...). Now, 10 years later we leave the damaged goods behind us.
Libya is a different story. We already learned (or we simply can't learn), that this Spring of Nations in Arab countries of the Middle East works on the different ground then the "specter of the Muslim radicalism" with which we have been threatened constantly, for decades. Although some Republicans in our country do not believe in it - the EVOLUTION is what creates changes in the world. This Evolution applies not only to the DNA of the particular species, but also, and maybe, above all, to the social DNA of the developing socially nations.
And so, the unruly, socially undeveloped, and for 42 years deprived from any real political life, Libya creates the National Council in the first 10 days of the uprising. For some reason, the Opposition is wise enough to use the people with the experience (they gained it in the Gaddafi's regime, yes, but they chose the opposition), who could fill the post-Gaddafi vacuum.
-------------
I have been writing about this particular aspect of the Revolutions sweeping the Middle East from the very beginning. Nothing is as previously predicted. Nothing is the way it has been happening for decades. No single Anti-American demonstration, no flag burning. Quite a contrary, the reverence for the democratic principles for which the USA stands, and hope for help.
I couldn't believe how long it took to make a stand which allowed the Egyptian Army to end this Mubarak farce. Fortunately for the US, the events happened so fast, that even our indecision didn't ruin it. And now we can count on the fruitful cooperation with the democratic Egypt - probably the same way as previously on the ties with the Dictator. The same with Tunisia.
However in the case of Libya the story gets a bit more complicated. Gaddafi has never been a democratic Leader. In the beginning he lead the popular revolution, but soon enough he used the "Green Book" to muzzle any democratic forces in the country and successfully rid Libya of any subversive element...
Apparently not all of them have been lost, beaten, tortured, imprisoned, killed. Sweeping the Middle East (and not only), the wind of the modern, democratic ideas, found a fertile ground even under the repressive hand of the flamboyant buffoon - Dictator Colonel Gaddafi.
Unfortunately Gaddafi knows very well that before the Europe, UN, or even America can organize themselves to act against him, the rebellion will be OVER. He is very well aware of the powers he has, and how destructive can be the blows of his war machine. He has had enough time in his 34 years of defiance (before 2003 when he denounced terrorism for the benefit of the Western World) to know how long time is needed to debate on any important issues within the UN. Even knowing about his, not destroyed yet, 9 metric tons of the Mustard Gas doesn't speed up the process. And I thought that WMD is a term which always galvanizes the World's Leaders...
We all have to keep in mind that as fast as this revolution was ignited, that fast Gaddafi can defeat the Opposition forces ad bring back "the law and order", if he is left with a sufficient time to do so, and not stopped immediately.
When we lose time on pointless arguments, and despite the urgent calls of the Rebels and the Arab League, sit on our hands - we deliver the message to the World and in particular to the People of the Arab countries. And this is not the message we would like to send... In the meantime Gaddafi uses his air force as much as he can, decimating the rebels, systematically and on schedule. Schedule which he already knows by heart - The UN schedule.
A brilliant correspondent in Libya, Hoda Abdel-Hamid in her tweet on Wednesday afternoon asked: "The world needs to protect Benghazi if it really wants stability... or is it too uncomfortable to let go of #Libya's oil?".
Why do we have to ask this question. We, in Western World value greatly the principles of democracy. We have fought and have died for them...
And of course it helps when the object of our help and support provides us with a strong incentives to do so. But even in this context do not dismiss Libya all along. When/if the Opposition forces win and the New Libya (the one with 3 colored flag) revises their commercial obligations - I am pretty sure, that those who help them now wouldn't have to worry for the outcome of these revisions...
Monday, March 14, 2011
Libya - desperate wait... indecision... WMD...
We are fast approaching a full month since the beginning of the Libyan revolt against the notorious Dictator and his regime. It started on the February 15. 2011.
For quite a while Gaddafi played a relatively safe for himself game of the "limited atrocities" against his own people. Most of his brutal moves happened "off camera" since he imposed the 'media blackout' at the beginning, and later, even after inviting the media back to Libya, controlled their access to any part of the country.
We were learning of the crimes of the regime from the scarce reports of the eye witnesses - always with the waiver: "the video (or relation) couldn't be independently confirmed...".
Already in the first week of the fights we learned about the air bombardments delivering the tactical blows to the rebel forces. Not the constant, heavy bombardments which would trigger the international response immediately, but the measured, demoralizing, and frightening hits, leaving a few dead in the field and the hundreds, or thousands fearing for their lives.
The rebels asked for the "no-fly zone" right at the beginning of the Gaddafi's use of the air force. To no avail.
The Arab League stubbornly denied the call for the no-fly zone effectively tying up the "Western Hands". For weeks we all heard about the possible ways to intervene, raging from the unilateral American action, through the no-fly zone imposed by the NATO forces, or French unilateral military involvement, to the continuous. and bringing no solution talks in the UN.
The divide has been widening instead of disappearing. China and Russia stand strongly against any form of the foreign intervention fearing that the created precedence would in the long run hurt their attempts to "pacify" the discontent in their countries.
In the meantime the US 5th Fleet "parked" in front of the Gaddafi's "windows", joined by some NATO forces - ready for any change of the policy to launch the attack...
And then on Saturday, March 12, The Arab League called for the NO-FLY ZONE to be imposed over Libya. One would think, that all the necessary conditions to actually impose the no-fly zone have been met. Unfortunately, it's not the case. In such a time sensitive situation the Emergency session of the Security Council should have been called for, right after the Arab League call on Saturday. OK, it was late in the day, so I would expect it to happen on Sunday... The Council finally assembled on Monday for a "closed door" session. It may take days, if not weeks to before the unanimous decision is achieved (although the draft resolution is promised today). But in a few weeks there may be no more need for any help to the rebels. There will be no rebels any more.
I stress it in all my posts: Gaddafi is a very experienced, and efficient Dictator. He has been playing a "cat and mouse" game with the West for decades. Counting on the division between the points of view in the World he measures his attacks to be effective against the rebels, depleting their morale, resources, and reducing the amount of the fit-to fight volunteers, the same time avoiding the "Srebrenica like massacre". The rebels slowly loose grip of the "liberated" territories. The government army forces the rebels out of their strongholds, and then loosens the grip with which it holds to the regained terrain just to let the opposition forces to commit more effort to fight for these sites over and over, "bleeding" slowly out, and loosing the momentum.
On Monday Gaddafi announced an offer of the general Amnesty to all the Rebel Fighters if they stop the uprising. No one has any doubts that this kind of offer wouldn't guarantee ANY impunity to the opposition forces, once the Dictator is back in power 100%. But, is the "revolutionary army" unified enough to dismiss this sort of tricks? People are hurt, tired, hungry and with no visible support from the outside. How long can they sustain the fight, having nothing but hope...?
Gaddafi sent his envoys to Brussels (the seat of the European Government and the NATO Headquarters), and Cairo to try to convince the World's powers that the "status quo" might be regained and it is in the interest of the West to let it happen. So far the NATO refused to talk to the Gaddafi's emissaries.
Yesterday, the Dictator met with the Ambassadors of China, Russia and India to farther reassure the representatives of these Super-Powers of the benefits of the survival of his regime.
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The No-Fly Zone was called for a long time ago. If imposed then, balance of the powers would have been shifted toward the Opposition Forces tremendously. It hasn't happen. What is the no-fly zone going to change, If imposed in a few days? A lot of damage has been done already. The fear factor established. The no-fly zone, by itself is completely useless against any helicopter attacks. Gaddafi has a number of attack helicopters, as well as Chinook transport helicopters. Some of them remember the times of close ties with Russia years ago, some have been bought in the recent years in violation of the arms embargo. Shame on those who profited from the arms deals with Gaddafi (Italy, Russia, China, Algeria...).
As brought to our attention by some reports, the loophole in the existing, imposed by the UN arms embargo on Gaddafi's regime, allows for arming the Revolutionary forces. I hope that this option is still on the table, and considered along the no-fly zone. However, we have the long and (to say the least) spotty history of arming the rebel forces in the countries of our interest. We all remember Nicaragua, Afghanistan, we can recall our initial involvement in Viet-Nam. Besides any moral issues, this sort of support is always risky, and often backfires.
Although there is a strong and decisive opposition of the countries in the region to any "foreign intervention" in the form of deployment of the army on the ground - the "no-fly zone" (as called for by the Arab league) also involves the air strikes neutralizing the air-defense capabilities of the Libyan governmental forces. This may, and will cause the protests of the Regional Powers (who perhaps do not realize what is involved in imposing such restrictions).
Any, even the most precise "surgical" air strikes will bring the casualties. We heard already, during any other conflict, the enemy's claims about the "civilian" casualties, even if no civilians were present in the target zones. We will hear Libya government's cries protesting against the "collateral civilian damage", no matter how careful the Western forces will be. We know already, that Libya has at least 13 anti-aircraft batteries. According to the military commentators they are all consisting of the aging, but formidable Russian equipment, which if well maintained may create a problem to even far superior technologically Western air assault. These batteries would have to be eliminated. However, by default, in the countries like Libya these batteries are located in the heavy populated areas...
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America invaded Iraq to prevent the Hussain regime from the use the (non existent) Weapons of Mass Destruction. It gave us the moral authority to invade and conquer Iraq. It gave us the moral authority to remove the Dictator from power, and execute him in Baghdad soon afterwords. However, Iraq didn't have ANY Weapons of Mass Destruction. the whole invasion was called for on false pretenses...
In the case of the Colonel Gaddafi we play with the 'kid gloves'. The moral reservation against the "any country interference in the affairs of another country" has been voiced over and over. But let's not forget that Gaddafi's regime by now destroyed only 2/3 of their stash of the MUSTARD GAS, having still more than 9 metric tons of this Weapon of Mass Destruction in it's arsenal. Since the beginning of the conflict, the concerned voices have been heard, warning about the danger of the Regime using the toxic agent against the opposition. For some reason, so far, this argument wasn't used in the talks about the Western reaction to the war atrocities attempted by the Dictator.
Maybe it's time to get reminded about this clear and present danger !
For quite a while Gaddafi played a relatively safe for himself game of the "limited atrocities" against his own people. Most of his brutal moves happened "off camera" since he imposed the 'media blackout' at the beginning, and later, even after inviting the media back to Libya, controlled their access to any part of the country.
We were learning of the crimes of the regime from the scarce reports of the eye witnesses - always with the waiver: "the video (or relation) couldn't be independently confirmed...".
Already in the first week of the fights we learned about the air bombardments delivering the tactical blows to the rebel forces. Not the constant, heavy bombardments which would trigger the international response immediately, but the measured, demoralizing, and frightening hits, leaving a few dead in the field and the hundreds, or thousands fearing for their lives.
The rebels asked for the "no-fly zone" right at the beginning of the Gaddafi's use of the air force. To no avail.
The Arab League stubbornly denied the call for the no-fly zone effectively tying up the "Western Hands". For weeks we all heard about the possible ways to intervene, raging from the unilateral American action, through the no-fly zone imposed by the NATO forces, or French unilateral military involvement, to the continuous. and bringing no solution talks in the UN.
The divide has been widening instead of disappearing. China and Russia stand strongly against any form of the foreign intervention fearing that the created precedence would in the long run hurt their attempts to "pacify" the discontent in their countries.
In the meantime the US 5th Fleet "parked" in front of the Gaddafi's "windows", joined by some NATO forces - ready for any change of the policy to launch the attack...
And then on Saturday, March 12, The Arab League called for the NO-FLY ZONE to be imposed over Libya. One would think, that all the necessary conditions to actually impose the no-fly zone have been met. Unfortunately, it's not the case. In such a time sensitive situation the Emergency session of the Security Council should have been called for, right after the Arab League call on Saturday. OK, it was late in the day, so I would expect it to happen on Sunday... The Council finally assembled on Monday for a "closed door" session. It may take days, if not weeks to before the unanimous decision is achieved (although the draft resolution is promised today). But in a few weeks there may be no more need for any help to the rebels. There will be no rebels any more.
I stress it in all my posts: Gaddafi is a very experienced, and efficient Dictator. He has been playing a "cat and mouse" game with the West for decades. Counting on the division between the points of view in the World he measures his attacks to be effective against the rebels, depleting their morale, resources, and reducing the amount of the fit-to fight volunteers, the same time avoiding the "Srebrenica like massacre". The rebels slowly loose grip of the "liberated" territories. The government army forces the rebels out of their strongholds, and then loosens the grip with which it holds to the regained terrain just to let the opposition forces to commit more effort to fight for these sites over and over, "bleeding" slowly out, and loosing the momentum.
On Monday Gaddafi announced an offer of the general Amnesty to all the Rebel Fighters if they stop the uprising. No one has any doubts that this kind of offer wouldn't guarantee ANY impunity to the opposition forces, once the Dictator is back in power 100%. But, is the "revolutionary army" unified enough to dismiss this sort of tricks? People are hurt, tired, hungry and with no visible support from the outside. How long can they sustain the fight, having nothing but hope...?
Gaddafi sent his envoys to Brussels (the seat of the European Government and the NATO Headquarters), and Cairo to try to convince the World's powers that the "status quo" might be regained and it is in the interest of the West to let it happen. So far the NATO refused to talk to the Gaddafi's emissaries.
Yesterday, the Dictator met with the Ambassadors of China, Russia and India to farther reassure the representatives of these Super-Powers of the benefits of the survival of his regime.
----------------
The No-Fly Zone was called for a long time ago. If imposed then, balance of the powers would have been shifted toward the Opposition Forces tremendously. It hasn't happen. What is the no-fly zone going to change, If imposed in a few days? A lot of damage has been done already. The fear factor established. The no-fly zone, by itself is completely useless against any helicopter attacks. Gaddafi has a number of attack helicopters, as well as Chinook transport helicopters. Some of them remember the times of close ties with Russia years ago, some have been bought in the recent years in violation of the arms embargo. Shame on those who profited from the arms deals with Gaddafi (Italy, Russia, China, Algeria...).
As brought to our attention by some reports, the loophole in the existing, imposed by the UN arms embargo on Gaddafi's regime, allows for arming the Revolutionary forces. I hope that this option is still on the table, and considered along the no-fly zone. However, we have the long and (to say the least) spotty history of arming the rebel forces in the countries of our interest. We all remember Nicaragua, Afghanistan, we can recall our initial involvement in Viet-Nam. Besides any moral issues, this sort of support is always risky, and often backfires.
Although there is a strong and decisive opposition of the countries in the region to any "foreign intervention" in the form of deployment of the army on the ground - the "no-fly zone" (as called for by the Arab league) also involves the air strikes neutralizing the air-defense capabilities of the Libyan governmental forces. This may, and will cause the protests of the Regional Powers (who perhaps do not realize what is involved in imposing such restrictions).
Any, even the most precise "surgical" air strikes will bring the casualties. We heard already, during any other conflict, the enemy's claims about the "civilian" casualties, even if no civilians were present in the target zones. We will hear Libya government's cries protesting against the "collateral civilian damage", no matter how careful the Western forces will be. We know already, that Libya has at least 13 anti-aircraft batteries. According to the military commentators they are all consisting of the aging, but formidable Russian equipment, which if well maintained may create a problem to even far superior technologically Western air assault. These batteries would have to be eliminated. However, by default, in the countries like Libya these batteries are located in the heavy populated areas...
-----------------
America invaded Iraq to prevent the Hussain regime from the use the (non existent) Weapons of Mass Destruction. It gave us the moral authority to invade and conquer Iraq. It gave us the moral authority to remove the Dictator from power, and execute him in Baghdad soon afterwords. However, Iraq didn't have ANY Weapons of Mass Destruction. the whole invasion was called for on false pretenses...
In the case of the Colonel Gaddafi we play with the 'kid gloves'. The moral reservation against the "any country interference in the affairs of another country" has been voiced over and over. But let's not forget that Gaddafi's regime by now destroyed only 2/3 of their stash of the MUSTARD GAS, having still more than 9 metric tons of this Weapon of Mass Destruction in it's arsenal. Since the beginning of the conflict, the concerned voices have been heard, warning about the danger of the Regime using the toxic agent against the opposition. For some reason, so far, this argument wasn't used in the talks about the Western reaction to the war atrocities attempted by the Dictator.
Maybe it's time to get reminded about this clear and present danger !
Japan - hit by a terrible natural disaster. Man made (partially) catastrophe in the waiting...
The earthquake of magnitude of 9.0 (revised on Monday) in the Richter scale hit Japan on Friday. The biggest earthquake which hit the islands for almost 140 years. Japan is used to the quakes, most of them do not cause too much damage to the buildings any more (thanks to the strict anti-quake building code). The last, which was a devastating blow to the country was so called Kobe Earthquake in January 1995, which had a magnitude of 7.3. The city was in ruins and approximately 6,434 people lost their lives (final estimate as of December 22, 2005); about 4,600 of them were from Kobe. The building code has been since improved, the city has been rebuilt in 85%.
The earthquake which came unexpectedly on Friday, March 11, 2011 had an epicenter several miles to the East of the Pacific shore. It was felt in the whole country causing a limited damage even in Tokyo. However, the most devastating was the Tsunami following the tremors. It swapped the Eastern shore of the Japanese Islands leveling everything standing on it's way with the 30 feet high wave. The whole cities on the cost simply disappeared. Thousands of people lost their lives. The official government statement said that it was the most terrible disaster in the post-war Japanese history. A long time will pass before the grim effect of this catastrophe will be known in detail...
All of the developed countries immediately rushed to help the suffering people of Japan. The needs of all the affected people and their fate are on the minds of everyone in the World.
Unfortunately, the Friday earthquake caused the damage to some reactors in the Japanese Nuclear Power Plants.
Japan's electrical power needs are enormous. Since 1973 the nuclear energy has been a national strategic priority. At this point, Japan is the third largest user of nuclear generated power, with 53 working nuclear reactors. They provide about 35% of Japan's electricity. Their nuclear industry has been operating without any major catastrophe (like Three Mile Island accident or the Chernobyl disaster). However, starting in the mid-1990s there were several nuclear related accidents and cover-ups in Japan that eroded public perception of the industry, resulting in protests and resistance to new plants. These accidents included the Tokaimura nuclear accident, the Mihama steam explosion, cover-ups after an accidents at the Monju reactor, among others, more recently the Chūetsu offshore earthquake aftermath (6.6 magnitude in 2007).
It brings us to the aftermath of the latest, huge earthquake followed by a tsunami. Although the most of the power plants haven't reported any damages - the Fukushima Daiichi plant – which runs on a plutonium-based fuel, developed the grave problems. Directly as a result of the quake, the reactor's #3 cooling system failed, causing the overheating of the core. It lead to the exposing of the fuel rods, generating the Hydrogen in the containment area, what lead to the explosion of the Hydrogen rich atmosphere and the destruction of the containment structure. Reports warn about the similar damage to the neighboring reactor. Although the radiation levels so far haven't been catastrophic, and thousands of the people have been evacuated from the immediate proximity of the plant to the safe distance, experts warn of the possibility of unprecedented nuclear disaster. So far a number of the inhabitants of that area have been exposed to some radiation, prior to the evacuation.
What we have to take under consideration is that Japan is located in the most active seismic area in the World - so called "Ring of Fire". Japan lays on the junction of the three major tectonic plates: North American, Eurasian and Pacific plates, and is close to the Phillipine plate. It is well known that the earthquakes are a part of normal life of this country. It is also known, that sometimes the nature goes beyond the "usual" and surprises us with it's ferocity. In such a context it's very arrogant to assume that the man-made structure (and man-made machinery) is constructed robustly enough to withstand a 'surprise attack' by the Mother Nature. Apparently the latest earthquake is more than these structures can handle.
If we use a 'statistical' approach to assess the 'survivability' of the structures like a conventionally powered power plant - we may accept a small percentage of the projected failures. Any damage to these conventional plants may cause death and injury to some people, but the affected area would be limited to local only, and the damages wouldn't leave any lasting contamination.
WE CAN'T APPLY STATISTICAL APPROACH to the assessment of the projected damages to the nuclear plans. We, as a humanity, can't control the nuclear reactions if anything goes wrong. We can't prevent the release of the radioactive gasses, steam, or water if there is any failure of the plant's infrastructure.
So far almost 2 hundred people have been exposed to some levels of radiation. If the repair teams succeed cooling down the 2 problematic reactors, maybe there will be no more harm done to the population. However, the assessment of the situation which transpires from the reports is far from being that optimistic. We heard already about the possibility of the meltdown, or explosion... If it happens, the affected area may be enormous (depending on the prevailing direction of the winds carrying the radioactive cloud).
Is it so difficult understanding, that although generally safe, in the crisis situation, the nuclear power plants are EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. And the danger goes far beyond the Japanese Islands, and it's not limited to the present only, but may be extended for many decades ahead.
The World's resources of the Uranium are already scarce (although it might be argued based on the increase of the technology involved in exploration, recovery, and the use of lower-content ore). The next technological step is application of the Plutonium as a fuel of the reactors, mixed uranium and plutonium oxide, to be precise. This fuel is much more difficult to handle, runs in much higher temperatures and if not cooled properly leads to the MELTDOWN when the temperature rises to 2200 degrees Celsius. If not cooled, the core of the reactor reaches that temperature very soon (at the temp. of 1000 C the water converts to hydrogen and another explosion is likely).
The earthquake which came unexpectedly on Friday, March 11, 2011 had an epicenter several miles to the East of the Pacific shore. It was felt in the whole country causing a limited damage even in Tokyo. However, the most devastating was the Tsunami following the tremors. It swapped the Eastern shore of the Japanese Islands leveling everything standing on it's way with the 30 feet high wave. The whole cities on the cost simply disappeared. Thousands of people lost their lives. The official government statement said that it was the most terrible disaster in the post-war Japanese history. A long time will pass before the grim effect of this catastrophe will be known in detail...
All of the developed countries immediately rushed to help the suffering people of Japan. The needs of all the affected people and their fate are on the minds of everyone in the World.
Unfortunately, the Friday earthquake caused the damage to some reactors in the Japanese Nuclear Power Plants.
Japan's electrical power needs are enormous. Since 1973 the nuclear energy has been a national strategic priority. At this point, Japan is the third largest user of nuclear generated power, with 53 working nuclear reactors. They provide about 35% of Japan's electricity. Their nuclear industry has been operating without any major catastrophe (like Three Mile Island accident or the Chernobyl disaster). However, starting in the mid-1990s there were several nuclear related accidents and cover-ups in Japan that eroded public perception of the industry, resulting in protests and resistance to new plants. These accidents included the Tokaimura nuclear accident, the Mihama steam explosion, cover-ups after an accidents at the Monju reactor, among others, more recently the Chūetsu offshore earthquake aftermath (6.6 magnitude in 2007).
It brings us to the aftermath of the latest, huge earthquake followed by a tsunami. Although the most of the power plants haven't reported any damages - the Fukushima Daiichi plant – which runs on a plutonium-based fuel, developed the grave problems. Directly as a result of the quake, the reactor's #3 cooling system failed, causing the overheating of the core. It lead to the exposing of the fuel rods, generating the Hydrogen in the containment area, what lead to the explosion of the Hydrogen rich atmosphere and the destruction of the containment structure. Reports warn about the similar damage to the neighboring reactor. Although the radiation levels so far haven't been catastrophic, and thousands of the people have been evacuated from the immediate proximity of the plant to the safe distance, experts warn of the possibility of unprecedented nuclear disaster. So far a number of the inhabitants of that area have been exposed to some radiation, prior to the evacuation.
What we have to take under consideration is that Japan is located in the most active seismic area in the World - so called "Ring of Fire". Japan lays on the junction of the three major tectonic plates: North American, Eurasian and Pacific plates, and is close to the Phillipine plate. It is well known that the earthquakes are a part of normal life of this country. It is also known, that sometimes the nature goes beyond the "usual" and surprises us with it's ferocity. In such a context it's very arrogant to assume that the man-made structure (and man-made machinery) is constructed robustly enough to withstand a 'surprise attack' by the Mother Nature. Apparently the latest earthquake is more than these structures can handle.
If we use a 'statistical' approach to assess the 'survivability' of the structures like a conventionally powered power plant - we may accept a small percentage of the projected failures. Any damage to these conventional plants may cause death and injury to some people, but the affected area would be limited to local only, and the damages wouldn't leave any lasting contamination.
WE CAN'T APPLY STATISTICAL APPROACH to the assessment of the projected damages to the nuclear plans. We, as a humanity, can't control the nuclear reactions if anything goes wrong. We can't prevent the release of the radioactive gasses, steam, or water if there is any failure of the plant's infrastructure.
So far almost 2 hundred people have been exposed to some levels of radiation. If the repair teams succeed cooling down the 2 problematic reactors, maybe there will be no more harm done to the population. However, the assessment of the situation which transpires from the reports is far from being that optimistic. We heard already about the possibility of the meltdown, or explosion... If it happens, the affected area may be enormous (depending on the prevailing direction of the winds carrying the radioactive cloud).
Is it so difficult understanding, that although generally safe, in the crisis situation, the nuclear power plants are EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. And the danger goes far beyond the Japanese Islands, and it's not limited to the present only, but may be extended for many decades ahead.
The World's resources of the Uranium are already scarce (although it might be argued based on the increase of the technology involved in exploration, recovery, and the use of lower-content ore). The next technological step is application of the Plutonium as a fuel of the reactors, mixed uranium and plutonium oxide, to be precise. This fuel is much more difficult to handle, runs in much higher temperatures and if not cooled properly leads to the MELTDOWN when the temperature rises to 2200 degrees Celsius. If not cooled, the core of the reactor reaches that temperature very soon (at the temp. of 1000 C the water converts to hydrogen and another explosion is likely).
-----------------------------
Should we play with the powers which we vaguely control (conditionally - only if everything works)? Should we arrogantly risk the health and life of the countless number of people, and risk condemning the huge areas to be uninhabitable for many decades because of the radiation contamination? I do not think so.
-----------------------------
Our hopes and wishes are with the people of Japan. Hopes and wishes, that the blow that Mother Nature has already delivered is ALL what they have to suffer, and it's not going to be worsened by a horrifying nuclear disaster.
Should we play with the powers which we vaguely control (conditionally - only if everything works)? Should we arrogantly risk the health and life of the countless number of people, and risk condemning the huge areas to be uninhabitable for many decades because of the radiation contamination? I do not think so.
-----------------------------
Our hopes and wishes are with the people of Japan. Hopes and wishes, that the blow that Mother Nature has already delivered is ALL what they have to suffer, and it's not going to be worsened by a horrifying nuclear disaster.
Saturday, March 5, 2011
Libya - stalemate or preparation for a decisive action...
It's been two weeks since the beginning of the Libyan Revolution. We still have very little of the reliable information about the state of affairs inside this desert country. There are only a few American reporters like Nick Robertson, Ben Wedeman, and Richard Engel who travel through the North part of the country where the most of the fight is taking place. There is a bit more extensive coverage of the ground by the Al Jazeera correspondents. All together the information we receive is, at best, sketchy.
As of Friday, March 04 Tripoli is an unquestionable stronghold of Gaddafi. Although with the skirmishes between the Gaddafi's army and the rebels on daily basis, the streets of Tripoli are controlled by the dictator's loyalists, and almost deserted, since the inhabitants, fearing for their life do not dare to step out of their houses.
It's not the case in other cities.
The rebels established themselves, starting in Benghazi, Tobruk, in most of the cities of the East. Farther to the West, the cities of Ajdabiya, Al Brega and Ras Lanuf are being contested. Both sides repeatedly claim to control them. The situation changes on hourly basis. It doesn't come as a surprise, since the Al Brega is one of the biggest oil terminals for the Libyan export. The only big center in the West in control of the rebels is a city of Misrata. Also the continuing fights occur in a located 50 km to the West of Tripoli - Zawiya (as well an oil terminal), where today at least 30 people lost their lives and hundreds have been wounded while the army attempted to regain control of the center of the city.
-------
On March 01, The UN General Assembly unanimously suspended Libya from the Human Rights Council. The economical sanctions, and travel ban on the members of the regime have been implemented. "These actions should send a strong and important message," declared U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon. "There is one community and those who commit crimes against humanity will be punished...time is of the essence, thousands of lives are at stake. It is our collective duty to stand for human rights."
In February the Arab League suspended Libya's membership after the "martyr" speech by Colonel Gaddafi. Later on, the same League rejected the option of any foreign intervention in Libya, making the issue of the "no-fly zone" even more difficult and risky. However, on March 03 the League revised it's position discussing imposing the "no-fly zone" over Libya in coordination with the African Union.
In the meantime the aircraft carrier, an amphibious assault ship, and a command vessel of the US 6th fleet moved to the vicinity of the Libyan coast.
-------
The Western World was caught 'off guard' by the Democratic Revolution of 2011 in so many of the Arab Countries. However, the growing discontent of the suppressed by the totalitarian regimes masses is nothing new. It brings to mind the European Spring of Nations of 1848, when there were a series of popular uprisings and revolutions. For the most part they were brutally suppressed. What is interesting is the similarities in causes that brought them about. It was as well, the massive effort on the part of the people to throw off autocratic rule.
And this is where the similarities end. The era is different, the flow of information is massive and instant, the social awareness of the people is developed much better, the World is watching...
The greatest difference lays in speed of the changes. The Tunisian, and Egyptian uprisings happened so fast, that the World didn't have a time to react properly. The inertia of the World's Powers (or let's call it for what it really is - typical "dragging of legs") allowed the revolution to progress by itself in both of these countries. Thankfully, the outcome of the revolt in both cases was surprisingly promising and surprisingly secular.
The World had treated all the Arabs condescendingly, as "social infants". There was a talk about spreading democracy, but in reality the prevailing position was that "the Arabs were not ready for democracy", and "if given a choice they would chose radicalization".
So far the Arab nations who initiated the revolution proved this theory completely wrong. But we were talking so far about relatively peaceful uprisings in the countries with a long history of the national identity, and the advanced societies...
In the case of Libya the situation is completely different. The Libyan Dictator who has been in power for 42 years didn't allow the Libyan society develop in a normal way. Crushing the opposition with an iron fist he created the society in which the personal survival became the sole life's goal. Cleverly juggling the "carrot and a stick" he created the society living their lives "day by day" without thinking of the future. When Libya became an oil producing country, creating the tremendous revenues (and fortunes for the ruling 'family' and it's cronies), Gaddafi decided that letting his own people to develop the Middle Class would be too dangerous, and "imported" most of the medical staff from other countries (in great degree from Russia and other countries of the Eastern Block), and most of the professional technical staff to run his industries, from the West. He relied almost completely on the foreign workers in his oil industry (employing hundreds of thousands of Indian, Pakistani, Chinese, Vietnamese, and also Egyptian workers).
When the unrest started, all of this "foreign work force" along with the doctors and nurses abandoned their posts returning home in a massive exodus, leaving Libya's industries severely understaffed. What is more dangerous, the hospitals and emergency services immediately suffered the "staff vacuum", unprecedented so far.
All the countries of the region are different from one another. Because of that, all these countries require completely different approach and treatment.
We have already learned that this 2011 Spring of Nations is a 'wild fire' spreading fast and in unpredictable way. Knowing it's fast pace, it's obvious that the 'normal', traditional way of reacting to the presented challenges IS NOT ADEQUATE.
It's very true in the case of Libya.
Libyan Dictator (however tragically ridiculous and deranged he is) has learned to read the Libyan people well. He knows that making stand from time to time, controlling Tripoli and making sporadic "reminder' rides on the liberated by the rebels territory, creates the fearful scenario in his people's minds. He knows that leaving the rebel centers 'alone' to a certain degree may cause the deterioration in the rebels' ranks. He and his son Saith deny any rebel activities, any loss of the territory to the rebel forces. Saith, in his interview with Anita McNaught (Al Jazeera) denied completely having ANY foreign bank accounts, ridiculing the "seizure" of Gaddafi's funds abroad. This act of defiance is repeatedly transmitted by the government owned TV channel. Since there is no working Internet, no telephone service, the isolated pockets of the anti-Gaddafi's forces are constantly misinformed. As reported by the reporters in the field, the revolution has lost the momentum in the East part of the country. This loss of the momentum, alone with misinformation, and lack of the International ACTIVE support creates the situation in which the survival of the current, inhumane Dictatorship is more, NO COMA and more feasible.
Gaddafi's regime is already condemned by the World's Powers. It's condemned by all the people. And yet, if the strong, fast (it is already late) measures are not implemented soon, Gaddafi may regain the control of most of the country. In his diabolical plan he may even, for some period of time, isolate the rebel centers in the East, slowly stabilizing the situation in the West. He may simply 'bleed' the rebels, and their enthusiasm out. These people, however passionate in their act of fighting against the hated dictator, have no military training, nor the supplies. How long can they continue the struggle without a visible end, if not supported by an outside force?
Gaddafi's and his regime is not afraid any more of the judgment. He has crossed the point of no return. There is already the Crimes Against Humanity investigation "on stand by". He and his apparatus will be brought to justice. It's only a question of time.
Gaddafi has the 'upper hand', now just playing with time, and counting on the limited "attention span" of the 'ad hoc' created rebel army. He will fall sooner or later, but if the World doesn't get unified behind any form of the intervention, the 'status quo' may continue for months ahead. A lot of people will perish, and... again we (in the West) loose the face.
America is in a very delicate and difficult situation. We can't stretch our military, running already two wars. We can't make a move unilaterally, since the Arab countries would immediately strongly oppose that (a specter of the two wars doesn't help). It's already known that even the rebels would not accept "our boots on the ground", so by default we would be limited to the air operation. America is the champion of Democracy (no one can deny that). At this moment this Champion is called upon for help, by the people of Libya, people fighting with a brutal regime, regime with no respect to any human or social values. The people in the rebel strongholds count on us. People in Tripoli, fearing for their life, count on us. The World is watching...
There is of course an option of arming the rebels. Although it never worked as expected in the past. Knowing that these weapons may end up in the hands of mercenaries, or being repossessed by the government forces doesn't make it easier. It would be considered an intervention after all.
So, until the World agrees on any forceful intervention - the only viable action America can be involved in now (and should be involved in soon) is parachuting the food and medical supplies to all the rebel pockets, providing sustenance, and boosting their morale at the same time. I would also gladly see a hospital-ship standing in a vicinity of Benghazi or Misrata allowing for medical evacuation of the seriously wounded, from the "rebel owned" cities. For now - a purely humanitarian mission, like the one which is already in progress (the food and supply delivery to the refugee camps on the Libian borders in which we ARE involved).
I wouldn't disregard completely the option of recognizing the rebel, provisional government in Benghazi as a legitimate government of the New Libya. It might be a sufficient morale boost for the fighting, and for us - the way of getting out of a 'diplomatic ditch' when dealing with the 'illegitimate' new UN Libyan ambassador (appointed yesterday by Gaddafi).
As of Friday, March 04 Tripoli is an unquestionable stronghold of Gaddafi. Although with the skirmishes between the Gaddafi's army and the rebels on daily basis, the streets of Tripoli are controlled by the dictator's loyalists, and almost deserted, since the inhabitants, fearing for their life do not dare to step out of their houses.
It's not the case in other cities.
The rebels established themselves, starting in Benghazi, Tobruk, in most of the cities of the East. Farther to the West, the cities of Ajdabiya, Al Brega and Ras Lanuf are being contested. Both sides repeatedly claim to control them. The situation changes on hourly basis. It doesn't come as a surprise, since the Al Brega is one of the biggest oil terminals for the Libyan export. The only big center in the West in control of the rebels is a city of Misrata. Also the continuing fights occur in a located 50 km to the West of Tripoli - Zawiya (as well an oil terminal), where today at least 30 people lost their lives and hundreds have been wounded while the army attempted to regain control of the center of the city.
-------
On March 01, The UN General Assembly unanimously suspended Libya from the Human Rights Council. The economical sanctions, and travel ban on the members of the regime have been implemented. "These actions should send a strong and important message," declared U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon. "There is one community and those who commit crimes against humanity will be punished...time is of the essence, thousands of lives are at stake. It is our collective duty to stand for human rights."
In February the Arab League suspended Libya's membership after the "martyr" speech by Colonel Gaddafi. Later on, the same League rejected the option of any foreign intervention in Libya, making the issue of the "no-fly zone" even more difficult and risky. However, on March 03 the League revised it's position discussing imposing the "no-fly zone" over Libya in coordination with the African Union.
In the meantime the aircraft carrier, an amphibious assault ship, and a command vessel of the US 6th fleet moved to the vicinity of the Libyan coast.
-------
The Western World was caught 'off guard' by the Democratic Revolution of 2011 in so many of the Arab Countries. However, the growing discontent of the suppressed by the totalitarian regimes masses is nothing new. It brings to mind the European Spring of Nations of 1848, when there were a series of popular uprisings and revolutions. For the most part they were brutally suppressed. What is interesting is the similarities in causes that brought them about. It was as well, the massive effort on the part of the people to throw off autocratic rule.
And this is where the similarities end. The era is different, the flow of information is massive and instant, the social awareness of the people is developed much better, the World is watching...
The greatest difference lays in speed of the changes. The Tunisian, and Egyptian uprisings happened so fast, that the World didn't have a time to react properly. The inertia of the World's Powers (or let's call it for what it really is - typical "dragging of legs") allowed the revolution to progress by itself in both of these countries. Thankfully, the outcome of the revolt in both cases was surprisingly promising and surprisingly secular.
The World had treated all the Arabs condescendingly, as "social infants". There was a talk about spreading democracy, but in reality the prevailing position was that "the Arabs were not ready for democracy", and "if given a choice they would chose radicalization".
So far the Arab nations who initiated the revolution proved this theory completely wrong. But we were talking so far about relatively peaceful uprisings in the countries with a long history of the national identity, and the advanced societies...
In the case of Libya the situation is completely different. The Libyan Dictator who has been in power for 42 years didn't allow the Libyan society develop in a normal way. Crushing the opposition with an iron fist he created the society in which the personal survival became the sole life's goal. Cleverly juggling the "carrot and a stick" he created the society living their lives "day by day" without thinking of the future. When Libya became an oil producing country, creating the tremendous revenues (and fortunes for the ruling 'family' and it's cronies), Gaddafi decided that letting his own people to develop the Middle Class would be too dangerous, and "imported" most of the medical staff from other countries (in great degree from Russia and other countries of the Eastern Block), and most of the professional technical staff to run his industries, from the West. He relied almost completely on the foreign workers in his oil industry (employing hundreds of thousands of Indian, Pakistani, Chinese, Vietnamese, and also Egyptian workers).
When the unrest started, all of this "foreign work force" along with the doctors and nurses abandoned their posts returning home in a massive exodus, leaving Libya's industries severely understaffed. What is more dangerous, the hospitals and emergency services immediately suffered the "staff vacuum", unprecedented so far.
All the countries of the region are different from one another. Because of that, all these countries require completely different approach and treatment.
We have already learned that this 2011 Spring of Nations is a 'wild fire' spreading fast and in unpredictable way. Knowing it's fast pace, it's obvious that the 'normal', traditional way of reacting to the presented challenges IS NOT ADEQUATE.
It's very true in the case of Libya.
Libyan Dictator (however tragically ridiculous and deranged he is) has learned to read the Libyan people well. He knows that making stand from time to time, controlling Tripoli and making sporadic "reminder' rides on the liberated by the rebels territory, creates the fearful scenario in his people's minds. He knows that leaving the rebel centers 'alone' to a certain degree may cause the deterioration in the rebels' ranks. He and his son Saith deny any rebel activities, any loss of the territory to the rebel forces. Saith, in his interview with Anita McNaught (Al Jazeera) denied completely having ANY foreign bank accounts, ridiculing the "seizure" of Gaddafi's funds abroad. This act of defiance is repeatedly transmitted by the government owned TV channel. Since there is no working Internet, no telephone service, the isolated pockets of the anti-Gaddafi's forces are constantly misinformed. As reported by the reporters in the field, the revolution has lost the momentum in the East part of the country. This loss of the momentum, alone with misinformation, and lack of the International ACTIVE support creates the situation in which the survival of the current, inhumane Dictatorship is more, NO COMA and more feasible.
Gaddafi's regime is already condemned by the World's Powers. It's condemned by all the people. And yet, if the strong, fast (it is already late) measures are not implemented soon, Gaddafi may regain the control of most of the country. In his diabolical plan he may even, for some period of time, isolate the rebel centers in the East, slowly stabilizing the situation in the West. He may simply 'bleed' the rebels, and their enthusiasm out. These people, however passionate in their act of fighting against the hated dictator, have no military training, nor the supplies. How long can they continue the struggle without a visible end, if not supported by an outside force?
Gaddafi's and his regime is not afraid any more of the judgment. He has crossed the point of no return. There is already the Crimes Against Humanity investigation "on stand by". He and his apparatus will be brought to justice. It's only a question of time.
Gaddafi has the 'upper hand', now just playing with time, and counting on the limited "attention span" of the 'ad hoc' created rebel army. He will fall sooner or later, but if the World doesn't get unified behind any form of the intervention, the 'status quo' may continue for months ahead. A lot of people will perish, and... again we (in the West) loose the face.
America is in a very delicate and difficult situation. We can't stretch our military, running already two wars. We can't make a move unilaterally, since the Arab countries would immediately strongly oppose that (a specter of the two wars doesn't help). It's already known that even the rebels would not accept "our boots on the ground", so by default we would be limited to the air operation. America is the champion of Democracy (no one can deny that). At this moment this Champion is called upon for help, by the people of Libya, people fighting with a brutal regime, regime with no respect to any human or social values. The people in the rebel strongholds count on us. People in Tripoli, fearing for their life, count on us. The World is watching...
There is of course an option of arming the rebels. Although it never worked as expected in the past. Knowing that these weapons may end up in the hands of mercenaries, or being repossessed by the government forces doesn't make it easier. It would be considered an intervention after all.
So, until the World agrees on any forceful intervention - the only viable action America can be involved in now (and should be involved in soon) is parachuting the food and medical supplies to all the rebel pockets, providing sustenance, and boosting their morale at the same time. I would also gladly see a hospital-ship standing in a vicinity of Benghazi or Misrata allowing for medical evacuation of the seriously wounded, from the "rebel owned" cities. For now - a purely humanitarian mission, like the one which is already in progress (the food and supply delivery to the refugee camps on the Libian borders in which we ARE involved).
I wouldn't disregard completely the option of recognizing the rebel, provisional government in Benghazi as a legitimate government of the New Libya. It might be a sufficient morale boost for the fighting, and for us - the way of getting out of a 'diplomatic ditch' when dealing with the 'illegitimate' new UN Libyan ambassador (appointed yesterday by Gaddafi).
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Libya - the fall of Gaddafi on the horizon...
Libyan revolution is already a week old. Hundreds of thousands of people protest on the streets of all the major cities of the country. Although the protesters themselves are peaceful, they are met with the ruthless force of the apparatus. In most of the countries of the region, army is the organization which 'de facto' is in charge of these countries with the regimes trusting and relying on it. It's not the case in Libya. The Colonel Gaddafi is closely guarded by the 'elite' forces, who directly answer to him and his sons. They are loyal, well paid, and received the preferential treatment throughout the whole period after the Revolution. This 'elite' forces are supported by a huge number of the mercenaries from the neighboring African countries. Gaddafi always relied on the mercenary soldiers, since they are easier controlled (if paid) and would do anything they are asked for, including shooting to the unarmed demonstrators.
The army itself, although in general, loyal to the dictator, is not very likely to fulfill the orders to kill the compatriots.
Since the very beginning of the uprising the foreign mercenaries used violence against the people on the streets without hesitation, shooting them with 'live' ammunition, clubbing them and chopping their limbs with the machetes. Every day brought several new deaths, but didn't pacify the people, nor their will to overthrow the Dictator.
As I mentioned in the previous post, the brutal, and unlawful response of the regime caused many Libyan diplomats to review their allegiance to Gaddafi, and as a result forced them to openly disassociate themselves from the current government.
The violence against the protesters grew every day, culminating in (as reported in tweets - but not confirmed otherwise) usage of the helicopter gunships, and airplanes to shoot protesters with "increased efficiency" of the carnage. The escalation of the repressions resulted in resignation of at least one army general, as well as refusal of carrying the orders by many soldiers and fighter planes pilots. Yesterday 2 fighter planes defected to Malta. The pilots asked for asylum and confessed that they were ordered to bomb and shoot the protesters in Banghazi where the opposition to the regime was the strongest. Other pilots who were allegedly ordered bombing the oil fields in the East of the country also refused to do so and destroyed the planes, bailing out of them on the parachutes.
After a week of fighting the Eastern city of Benghazi and the surrounding areas have been "liberated" by the revolutionary forces. The huge contingent of the army in this Mediterranean city also defected to the "people's" side. The provisional government has been formed immediately, and according to the reporting Libyans, the communal services started working better than under the rules of the Dictator. The same was said about the stability of the electric power supply (even thought the management of the power plant was ordered by the regime to cut off the power).
Yesterday afternoon the Colonel Muammar al-Gaddafi showed himself on the state TV "performing" one of his endless and partially incoherent speeches. Contrary to previous speculations about him parting the country and escaping to Venezuela, he spoke from the Tripoli fortified compound which was bombed by the American airplanes in 1986, and which he kept unchanged since then as a proof of the defiance. He still considers himself as a great statesman, the leader of never ending revolution. He considers himself to be the man who is supposed to unify the countries of Africa in one powerful force. He had a dream (and tried it years ago, failing) to merge Tunisia and Egypt with Libya.
In the yesterday's speech, lasting nearly an hour he presented himself as the only person, the only force who can hold the country together. He exclaimed: Muammar Gaddafi is the GLORY. He claimed that hes was still loved by the whole population, not only for what he did for the Revolution, but for what he still does for the people. He reminded all the glorious events in the history of the country, like liberation from the Italian occupation, defying the USA and all Western countries, in short taking credit for all things which ever happened.
He accused, of course, the Western powers, as well as some Arab countries (like Qathar) for inciting the unrest. He accused the youth to be misguided, heavily drugged and paid by the enemies to destroy the country which has been so good for them.
At last, he read from The Green Book (Revolutionary Laws formed and collected by him in the days of Revolution) and quoted that all the transgressions qualify to be punished by execution. Let it be noted that Libya has never had a Constitution. Gaddafi and his Green Book have been the source of the SUPREME LAW.
He ended by strongly threatening all who would not cease the revolt and go home. He called at the same time the people to "raise against the perpetrators" of the treason and form the popular committees to "clean" the streets from the "destroyers" of the Libyan way of life...
Apparently defiant, and apparently threatening with the escalation of the carnage, Libyan leader still has a completely baseless conviction that this uprising is something which "will pass soon, and everything will return to the 'status quo'". After 42 years in power he simply refuses to understand that the world has changed. He refuses to acknowledge that because of many factors (and the spread of the information and the social media is only one of them), self awareness of the people, and their social education changed to the extent, that once ignited such an uprising can produce only one effect - toppling of the old, merciless and hated regime.
By Wednesday, the rebel forces were in the possession of more than 1/3 of the country (according to the most conservative reports). In the liberated parts of the country the rebels kept finding the execution sites with the big number of killed civilians and the army personnel, with their hands tied at their backs.
By the end of the day the revolutionaries had in their possession even the Eastern city of Misratah. The army from the liberated Benghazi released a statement to the Gaddafi's tribe, making obvious that the problem is only associated with the Colonel, not his tribe - avoiding the possibility of the tribal war.
It's suspected that the only remaining strongholds of the Dictator is the city of Tripoli itself. The sporadic reports from the city reveal an extraordinary level of fear among the people who are still subjected to the atrocities of the regime.
-------------------
Libya, being an oil producing country, employed a huge number of the foreign work force. There have been a huge number of American personnel (diplomatic and commercial) working there. Many other countries, like Egypt, Tunisia, Turkey and others had their citizens in the big numbers working there for years. An unrest like we observe in Libya, and the brutal response of the regime, create situation in which the logistics of the evacuation are enormous. All the involved counties tried to recover their citizens by the airplanes, but it proved to be a very difficult, or partially impossible because of the state of disrepair of the airports and/or inefficiency of the Libyan air control. Other countries (including the USA) sent ferries to Tripoli to save their citizens. However the high sea prevented the departure of these ships.
After more than a week of the NO STATEMENT from the US government, Barack Obama spoke on Wednesday summarizing what the whole world already stated:
(...) The violence in Libya is "outrageous." (...) This violence must stop. (...) East and West, voices are being raised together against oppression. (...) The U.N. is watching. (...) Let me be clear: the change that is being driven is by the people of the region. (...) The United States will continue to stand up for freedom.
However, beside the above, generic "condemnation" of the regime, Obama revealed the obvious threat to the defiant Dictator. Without getting in any details he said:
"(...)Secretary Clinton and I have asked Bill Burns, our Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, to make several stops in Europe and the region to intensify our consultations with allies and partners about the situation in Libya.
I’ve also asked Secretary Clinton to travel to Geneva on Monday, where a number of foreign ministers will convene for a session of the Human Rights Council. There she’ll hold consultations with her counterparts on events throughout the region and continue to ensure that we join with the international community to speak with one voice to the government and the people of Libya. (...)".
Beside the humanitarian crisis, and the "genocide" (as the atrocities were named by some politicians), the prolonged situation in which the regime behaves completely unpredictably, creates a very difficult and explosive situation. The possibility of blowing up of the oil fields, and the oil pipe line, which may be carried out by the regime in a desperate gesture of a vindictive spitefulness would be a dangerous blow to the stability of the oil supply to Europe as well as major factor pushing even higher the prices of the crude oil on the world's markets.
However, thanks to the unified action of the people of Libya, and the Western stand, It seams that the Libyan revolution may have a chance to be ended in the nearest future, hopefully without any additional loss of the human life.
-----------------
Hopefully Libya will soon join Tunisia and Egypt in their efforts to create the NEW, democratic political structures which will give the base to the full and meaningful lives of their people.
The army itself, although in general, loyal to the dictator, is not very likely to fulfill the orders to kill the compatriots.
Since the very beginning of the uprising the foreign mercenaries used violence against the people on the streets without hesitation, shooting them with 'live' ammunition, clubbing them and chopping their limbs with the machetes. Every day brought several new deaths, but didn't pacify the people, nor their will to overthrow the Dictator.
As I mentioned in the previous post, the brutal, and unlawful response of the regime caused many Libyan diplomats to review their allegiance to Gaddafi, and as a result forced them to openly disassociate themselves from the current government.
The violence against the protesters grew every day, culminating in (as reported in tweets - but not confirmed otherwise) usage of the helicopter gunships, and airplanes to shoot protesters with "increased efficiency" of the carnage. The escalation of the repressions resulted in resignation of at least one army general, as well as refusal of carrying the orders by many soldiers and fighter planes pilots. Yesterday 2 fighter planes defected to Malta. The pilots asked for asylum and confessed that they were ordered to bomb and shoot the protesters in Banghazi where the opposition to the regime was the strongest. Other pilots who were allegedly ordered bombing the oil fields in the East of the country also refused to do so and destroyed the planes, bailing out of them on the parachutes.
After a week of fighting the Eastern city of Benghazi and the surrounding areas have been "liberated" by the revolutionary forces. The huge contingent of the army in this Mediterranean city also defected to the "people's" side. The provisional government has been formed immediately, and according to the reporting Libyans, the communal services started working better than under the rules of the Dictator. The same was said about the stability of the electric power supply (even thought the management of the power plant was ordered by the regime to cut off the power).
Yesterday afternoon the Colonel Muammar al-Gaddafi showed himself on the state TV "performing" one of his endless and partially incoherent speeches. Contrary to previous speculations about him parting the country and escaping to Venezuela, he spoke from the Tripoli fortified compound which was bombed by the American airplanes in 1986, and which he kept unchanged since then as a proof of the defiance. He still considers himself as a great statesman, the leader of never ending revolution. He considers himself to be the man who is supposed to unify the countries of Africa in one powerful force. He had a dream (and tried it years ago, failing) to merge Tunisia and Egypt with Libya.
In the yesterday's speech, lasting nearly an hour he presented himself as the only person, the only force who can hold the country together. He exclaimed: Muammar Gaddafi is the GLORY. He claimed that hes was still loved by the whole population, not only for what he did for the Revolution, but for what he still does for the people. He reminded all the glorious events in the history of the country, like liberation from the Italian occupation, defying the USA and all Western countries, in short taking credit for all things which ever happened.
He accused, of course, the Western powers, as well as some Arab countries (like Qathar) for inciting the unrest. He accused the youth to be misguided, heavily drugged and paid by the enemies to destroy the country which has been so good for them.
At last, he read from The Green Book (Revolutionary Laws formed and collected by him in the days of Revolution) and quoted that all the transgressions qualify to be punished by execution. Let it be noted that Libya has never had a Constitution. Gaddafi and his Green Book have been the source of the SUPREME LAW.
He ended by strongly threatening all who would not cease the revolt and go home. He called at the same time the people to "raise against the perpetrators" of the treason and form the popular committees to "clean" the streets from the "destroyers" of the Libyan way of life...
Apparently defiant, and apparently threatening with the escalation of the carnage, Libyan leader still has a completely baseless conviction that this uprising is something which "will pass soon, and everything will return to the 'status quo'". After 42 years in power he simply refuses to understand that the world has changed. He refuses to acknowledge that because of many factors (and the spread of the information and the social media is only one of them), self awareness of the people, and their social education changed to the extent, that once ignited such an uprising can produce only one effect - toppling of the old, merciless and hated regime.
By Wednesday, the rebel forces were in the possession of more than 1/3 of the country (according to the most conservative reports). In the liberated parts of the country the rebels kept finding the execution sites with the big number of killed civilians and the army personnel, with their hands tied at their backs.
By the end of the day the revolutionaries had in their possession even the Eastern city of Misratah. The army from the liberated Benghazi released a statement to the Gaddafi's tribe, making obvious that the problem is only associated with the Colonel, not his tribe - avoiding the possibility of the tribal war.
It's suspected that the only remaining strongholds of the Dictator is the city of Tripoli itself. The sporadic reports from the city reveal an extraordinary level of fear among the people who are still subjected to the atrocities of the regime.
-------------------
Libya, being an oil producing country, employed a huge number of the foreign work force. There have been a huge number of American personnel (diplomatic and commercial) working there. Many other countries, like Egypt, Tunisia, Turkey and others had their citizens in the big numbers working there for years. An unrest like we observe in Libya, and the brutal response of the regime, create situation in which the logistics of the evacuation are enormous. All the involved counties tried to recover their citizens by the airplanes, but it proved to be a very difficult, or partially impossible because of the state of disrepair of the airports and/or inefficiency of the Libyan air control. Other countries (including the USA) sent ferries to Tripoli to save their citizens. However the high sea prevented the departure of these ships.
After more than a week of the NO STATEMENT from the US government, Barack Obama spoke on Wednesday summarizing what the whole world already stated:
(...) The violence in Libya is "outrageous." (...) This violence must stop. (...) East and West, voices are being raised together against oppression. (...) The U.N. is watching. (...) Let me be clear: the change that is being driven is by the people of the region. (...) The United States will continue to stand up for freedom.
However, beside the above, generic "condemnation" of the regime, Obama revealed the obvious threat to the defiant Dictator. Without getting in any details he said:
"(...)Secretary Clinton and I have asked Bill Burns, our Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, to make several stops in Europe and the region to intensify our consultations with allies and partners about the situation in Libya.
I’ve also asked Secretary Clinton to travel to Geneva on Monday, where a number of foreign ministers will convene for a session of the Human Rights Council. There she’ll hold consultations with her counterparts on events throughout the region and continue to ensure that we join with the international community to speak with one voice to the government and the people of Libya. (...)".
Beside the humanitarian crisis, and the "genocide" (as the atrocities were named by some politicians), the prolonged situation in which the regime behaves completely unpredictably, creates a very difficult and explosive situation. The possibility of blowing up of the oil fields, and the oil pipe line, which may be carried out by the regime in a desperate gesture of a vindictive spitefulness would be a dangerous blow to the stability of the oil supply to Europe as well as major factor pushing even higher the prices of the crude oil on the world's markets.
However, thanks to the unified action of the people of Libya, and the Western stand, It seams that the Libyan revolution may have a chance to be ended in the nearest future, hopefully without any additional loss of the human life.
-----------------
Hopefully Libya will soon join Tunisia and Egypt in their efforts to create the NEW, democratic political structures which will give the base to the full and meaningful lives of their people.
Monday, February 21, 2011
Libya - death toll rises...
If we all lived in a Cartoon World the story of the Colonel Gaddafi and his 'stunts' throughout his presidency would be one of the funniest ones. However we do not live in a Cartoon reality, and even in the domains of the mad and deranged Dictators the people's bleed the real blood, and all the dead people do not get revived.
Colonel Muammar Gaddafi who has been Libya's Dictator for 42 years provided the spectators with a very questionable and consistently idiotic "entertainment" all the time. The farce continued for decades every time the "megalomaniac demi-god" had any public appearance. He was a master of reinventing the history, accusing all the Western countries of completely ridiculous crimes. He was a "master" of all arts and sciences, and "taught" the doctors how to perform surgeries, taught actors how to act, painters how to paint... In this narcissistic self admiration he joined some other Dictators like Iraq's Hussein, and North Korea's Kim Pyong-il... He talked "trush" to the Western Leaders for years at the same time letting the terrorist training camps function on the Libyan territoriy. He has been ridiculed, bombed, sanctioned against, ridiculed again... He, and his system survived all that and finally in 1999 he had a "change of heart", and became the ally of the West in the "war on terror". He was still ridiculous and incoherent in his speeches (like his 95 minuets long rant in the UN less than 2 years ago, in 2009), but stopped openly acting against the Western Civilization.
All, what I described above would be hilarious if it wasn't so tragic.
Unfortunately, we can't even guess the number of the people killed in 4 decades by the Libyan apparatus of terror. What we can estimate is only what has been unfolding if front of our eyes in these few days since the unrest stared in Tripoli, Benghazi, and other cities. The tweeted reports about the casualties on the streets reached more than 300 dead and thousand or more wounded. It's difficult to confirm them since the Internet is not working, and the hospitals do not keep the track of the brought victims.
A son (second oldest) of Libyan leader Colonel Muammar Gaddafi has admitted the country's military over-reacted when dealing with protesters. He is the more moderate son of the Dictator, who rejected the father's policies in the past. But, speaking on Libyan TV, Sayf al-Islam accused the opposition of trying to break up the country. He said troops had opened fire on protesters because they were not trained to handle civil unrest. He said that "some" people had been killed, but accused foreign media of exaggerating the violence. He said that reports of high death tolls were "imaginary". He continued accusing the whole unrest to be a work of foreign paid thugs (on drugs) who wanted to split Libya in 3 sections - Libyan Arab Emirates (?!). He denied any accusations of using the foreign mercenaries against the protesters - contrary to the multiple reports of the witnesses.
He warned the nation that at this time there were only 2 options for tomorrow: stop the bloodshed and return to peace, or this would end up in years of a civil war and would be much worse than Iraq, or Yugoslavia etc. He threatened that the sedition would be "destroyed" and said:"we will not give up any inch of the Libyan territory".
He dwelled for a long time on the possible devastating result of the unrest, unavailing in front of the spectators the diabolical scenario of the foreign (European and American) military intervention to prevent losing the Libyan supply of oil, and as a result occupying the country for years, depriving the people of the "freedoms they enjoy now".
Libya is a country of about 6 million people, functioning in a mostly tribal society. It's predominantly a desert country with the oil fields in the center part of the territory.
The tribal leaders in the areas where the oil is being explored have set the ultimatum threatening closing the fields if the government continued with the violence toward the demonstrators.
The Libyan envoy to the Arab League left his post in the protest to the brutal crackdown on the protesters. The same did the Libyan Ambassador to India. It's obvious that even among the Libyan official representatives there are people who do not condone the repressive actions of the Colonel Gaddafi and his regime.
Some, growing in frequency reports from the Eastern, industrial city of Benghasi (1.5 million inhabitants), where so far the most of the deaths occurred, claim that the Army joined the protesters and the city is now in the hands of the demonstrators.
------------
How is the situation in Libya going to unfold? It seems that Libya has passed the point of no return. It seems, that the last days of the Dictator are approaching. Unfortunately, the peaceful solution is slipping out of reach, especially when the Non-Libyan mercenaries are used against the Libyan citizens. The Dictator's son promises didn't leave any uncertainty. The regime will try every tool in their disposal to return to the 'status quo' (however artificial, and short lived might be ).
The condemnation of the violence by all the Western government doesn't seem to have any effect.
Colonel Muammar Gaddafi who has been Libya's Dictator for 42 years provided the spectators with a very questionable and consistently idiotic "entertainment" all the time. The farce continued for decades every time the "megalomaniac demi-god" had any public appearance. He was a master of reinventing the history, accusing all the Western countries of completely ridiculous crimes. He was a "master" of all arts and sciences, and "taught" the doctors how to perform surgeries, taught actors how to act, painters how to paint... In this narcissistic self admiration he joined some other Dictators like Iraq's Hussein, and North Korea's Kim Pyong-il... He talked "trush" to the Western Leaders for years at the same time letting the terrorist training camps function on the Libyan territoriy. He has been ridiculed, bombed, sanctioned against, ridiculed again... He, and his system survived all that and finally in 1999 he had a "change of heart", and became the ally of the West in the "war on terror". He was still ridiculous and incoherent in his speeches (like his 95 minuets long rant in the UN less than 2 years ago, in 2009), but stopped openly acting against the Western Civilization.
All, what I described above would be hilarious if it wasn't so tragic.
Unfortunately, we can't even guess the number of the people killed in 4 decades by the Libyan apparatus of terror. What we can estimate is only what has been unfolding if front of our eyes in these few days since the unrest stared in Tripoli, Benghazi, and other cities. The tweeted reports about the casualties on the streets reached more than 300 dead and thousand or more wounded. It's difficult to confirm them since the Internet is not working, and the hospitals do not keep the track of the brought victims.
A son (second oldest) of Libyan leader Colonel Muammar Gaddafi has admitted the country's military over-reacted when dealing with protesters. He is the more moderate son of the Dictator, who rejected the father's policies in the past. But, speaking on Libyan TV, Sayf al-Islam accused the opposition of trying to break up the country. He said troops had opened fire on protesters because they were not trained to handle civil unrest. He said that "some" people had been killed, but accused foreign media of exaggerating the violence. He said that reports of high death tolls were "imaginary". He continued accusing the whole unrest to be a work of foreign paid thugs (on drugs) who wanted to split Libya in 3 sections - Libyan Arab Emirates (?!). He denied any accusations of using the foreign mercenaries against the protesters - contrary to the multiple reports of the witnesses.
He warned the nation that at this time there were only 2 options for tomorrow: stop the bloodshed and return to peace, or this would end up in years of a civil war and would be much worse than Iraq, or Yugoslavia etc. He threatened that the sedition would be "destroyed" and said:"we will not give up any inch of the Libyan territory".
He dwelled for a long time on the possible devastating result of the unrest, unavailing in front of the spectators the diabolical scenario of the foreign (European and American) military intervention to prevent losing the Libyan supply of oil, and as a result occupying the country for years, depriving the people of the "freedoms they enjoy now".
Libya is a country of about 6 million people, functioning in a mostly tribal society. It's predominantly a desert country with the oil fields in the center part of the territory.
The tribal leaders in the areas where the oil is being explored have set the ultimatum threatening closing the fields if the government continued with the violence toward the demonstrators.
The Libyan envoy to the Arab League left his post in the protest to the brutal crackdown on the protesters. The same did the Libyan Ambassador to India. It's obvious that even among the Libyan official representatives there are people who do not condone the repressive actions of the Colonel Gaddafi and his regime.
Some, growing in frequency reports from the Eastern, industrial city of Benghasi (1.5 million inhabitants), where so far the most of the deaths occurred, claim that the Army joined the protesters and the city is now in the hands of the demonstrators.
------------
How is the situation in Libya going to unfold? It seems that Libya has passed the point of no return. It seems, that the last days of the Dictator are approaching. Unfortunately, the peaceful solution is slipping out of reach, especially when the Non-Libyan mercenaries are used against the Libyan citizens. The Dictator's son promises didn't leave any uncertainty. The regime will try every tool in their disposal to return to the 'status quo' (however artificial, and short lived might be ).
The condemnation of the violence by all the Western government doesn't seem to have any effect.
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