While the 11th day of the Egyptian Revolution, the day which was supposed to be a "Day of Departure" (for the Dictator) is ended, the situation (although peaceful, and almost festive today) is far from the solution.
Who would be the real candidate to lead this proud nation to the democratic future? We know about Mohamed ElBaradei who is a very respected figure, who opposed the current regime for years, but stayed away from the political stage in Egypt - he lived most of his life abroad, he was a Head of the International Atomic Energy Agency. During the last few years he was demonized by the official Egyptian media in a retaliation for his personal stand against the regime. Although the most of the population understands the lack of truth in the media attacks against him, some fall victim of such lies and believe in them.
There is also the Muslim Brotherhood, who are very well organized and right now probably almost Main Stream, not the radical organization we remember from 2 decades ago. They are accused to be linked to the AL-QAEDA, however by now (as stated in The New york Times 02.04.2011) “The Brotherhood hates Al Qaeda, and Al Qaeda hates the Brotherhood,” said Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center in Qatar. They were banned as an organization for quite some time but their members (who in majority are lawyers, professionals, etc) found their way to the Egyptian parliamentary system and kept many position within it until the last parliamentary elections which they boycotted in an act of defiance of the government policy. They joined the uprising when it was already in motion being afraid that if singled out by the governmental forces they might have been the reason for crushing the protest under the banner of 'not letting the extreme forces taking over the country'. They would like to take part in the coalition government.
There is a third power who is almost unnoticed in the most of the Western estimates and predictions: Amir Mousa - the current head of the Arab League. He was so popular as a Foreign Minister of Egypt, that the people came out with the glorifying him song, which says: "Mousa, Mousa we love you...". No one, even 'in the field' considered him as a player in this post-Mubarak reality, but he showed up on Tahrir Sq. today, talked to people, without making any official stand, and suddenly his Facebook page in which he introduced himself as a Man Backed Up By The Egyptian Youth - within a day gathered 300,000 hits. Again, the power of the Social Networking. Maybe Mr. Mousa is going to be THAT person, at least to lead the Interim government. in the beginning of the new, democratic future ahead.
It's all but speculation, for now...
----
The violence against the members of the media proliferated during the last couple days of the uprising to the point that almost no one media center can operate using the cameras and the reporters in the field. Several TV teams were targeted purposely, some others happen to be 'in the wrong place in the wrong time' (or they were, where they were supposed to be being reporters). AlJazeera office was invaded and totally vandalized, while personnel interrogated on the spot and detained. Polish TV team was arrested on their way to the Tahrir Sq. Part of the team released after some time, the rest detained in the undisclosed location. Other affected by this hunt were a Guardian's reporter (beaten and arrested), The BBC, New York Times, Associated Press, CNN and Washington Post all reported that foreign journalists' equipment was taken or that journalists were being arrested and detained. The Washington Post reported their Cairo bureau chief Leila Fadel had been arrested, along with at least one dozen other journalists. An Egyptian photo-reporter was shot and killed by the security forces, while photographing the protests.
This is a mass and well organized action by the the elements of the Mubarak's administration. It was condemned by the the American and most of the European governments. At the same time all the promises of the current regime (even as they come out in the interviews as understanding, penitent, and reformed) are good for nothing.
----
A few days ago, when the police suddenly disappeared from the streets the Tourist Police (as reported) also disappeared leaving many extremely important archaeological places completely unprotected. What happened to a few expositions in the Egyptian Museum at the beginning of the protest happened outside of Cairo as well. But not everywhere. In many places like West Bank in Luxor - the general director of the West Bank, Mr. Mustafa Waziri, was himself present at all times (organizing guards during the nights on the sites), taking control of the crossroad leading to the KV and checking every vehicle to secure the valley (reported by Prof. Dr. Laurent Bavay, Director of the Belgian mission in Qurna).. It wasn't an isolated incident.
It was, however, another indication that the government cares more about it's own survival, than about 5 thousand years of human heritage.
-----------
The next day has already began in Cairo. Thousands of protesters camped on the Tahrir Sq, trying to stick 'to their turf' in anticipation of a long and tedious battle ahead. They do not trust any government's reaction - other than President Mubarak leaving for good his post. They have heard and have seen not once that the government's promises (sometimes sounding very attractive) never materialized in anything even close to what they were demanding. Why should this time be different...
In the interviews both President and Vice-President called this protest - "a strike", emphasizing the tremendous monetary losses to the tourist industry, to the small business owners, to the shops... It's so easy to play this tune and to portray the protesters in a very negative and un-patriotic light. It's so easy to turn the loss of income of many in a protest disturbed city against the protesters, not the cause which brought the protesters to the streets. Like all the totalitarian regimes in the world, the Egyptian government skillfully plays this sentiments to it's advantage, trying to outlast the protesters. Now it's up to the people to show that they can see through this so predictable policy.
Hopefully some kind of Interim Government will be created to lead the nation through the process of forging a completely different future for Egypt.
Saturday, February 5, 2011
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Egyptian Government on denial...
Omar Suleiman has just spoken. If one had no knowledge of the reality and the past, if one hasn't seen what was happening in Cairo and Alexandria in these 8 last days, one might have the impression, that "suddenly, the peace loving and democratic state was infiltrated by the subversive, and thinking only about the destruction conspiracy, and the surprised and unsuspected anything, honest government was only misunderstood even though they acted as well as they could to protect people...".
Yesterday the Premier of the Great Britain, David Cameron named the occurrences in Egypt as despicable and prompted the Mubarak's regime to a fast power transfer. He was backed by the Secretary general of the UN.
Vice President Suleiman's answer to this pressure and the carnage on the Tahrir Square yesterday is only a DENIAL and misrepresentation of the reality. We heard such reactions uttered by the representatives of the falling regimes everywhere in the world, Chile, Haiti, all regimes of the Communist Block. Facing the peoples wrath, they were all, in unison, denying what was already obvious for every observer in the world - their time was over.
Egyptian VP in the long interview (it's still on while I write these words) stated that the youth had a legitimate demands (which were met by the President) and after the demonstrations filled the streets, the government delegated the Army to uphold the order and prevent the clashes. The Army, according to Suleiman were doing a good job - it's not what we saw on the TV screens - the Army was buttoned up inside their personnel carriers and tanks and did NOTHING to prevent any unruly behavior.
VP repeated the same line as the President stated promising the democratic elections and the immediate talks with all the fractions of the opposition. The VP asked the protesters to disperse, since their demands were heard very loud and clear and they will be acted upon as soon as this uprising is over. However positive this angle might be - this time if given to the government (and I may safely put a wager on it) it will make the apparatus of repression even stronger.
Vice President Suleiman, when commenting the clashes escalated from the peaceful demonstrations blamed flatly the subversive elements agitated by the foreign influences and the satellite TV. He denied any responsibility for sending the countless crowd of the hired thugs to the streets to stir up the demonstrations and orchestrate the confrontation. As I wrote in the previous posts, some commentators claim that as much as a million of "thugs" might be on 'stand by' and used at will by the government to make their point heard louder and more organic. Demonstrators talked openly about the former elections which were rigged with use of this kind of thugs to steal the election boxes and disturb the people who decided to vote. This kind of policy, again, is very well known from every totalitarian country in the World, where the governmental upper hand is demonstrated in a policy of intimidation and repression.
Suleiman promised a swift and precise investigation to find all the people responsible for the failure of the police to insure the peaceful behavior and prevent the looting and the damage. He promised a fast and profound investigation to find and severely punish all who were responsible for all the damage and also all who were responsible (on both sides) for the fight and damage on Tahrir Sq. Unfortunately when the government throws into the same sack all participants, those who were peaceful and had to protect themselves and those hired thugs who were attacking the protesters - it's the same repression machine which we have seen over and over again throughout the years.
Very soon the government found 'a fall guy' (in this case many) freezing the assets and the passports of many previous members of the government (former Interior Minister, etc.). It's also a very often used trick used to channel, and stupefy the nation's reaction.
The people on the street do not trust the corrupted and compromised political figures in Egypt (Suleiman is not a new face, he's a long time crony of the President). They hear the same message in the words of the VP as I heard - the promise of the mass repressions - and back to normal - even if the elections take place - the government will have enough time to rig them up again, and get rid of the opposition.
ONLY THE INTERIM GOVERNMENT (whoever is in it) may now solve the problem and give the HOPE for the future.
Yesterday the Premier of the Great Britain, David Cameron named the occurrences in Egypt as despicable and prompted the Mubarak's regime to a fast power transfer. He was backed by the Secretary general of the UN.
Vice President Suleiman's answer to this pressure and the carnage on the Tahrir Square yesterday is only a DENIAL and misrepresentation of the reality. We heard such reactions uttered by the representatives of the falling regimes everywhere in the world, Chile, Haiti, all regimes of the Communist Block. Facing the peoples wrath, they were all, in unison, denying what was already obvious for every observer in the world - their time was over.
Egyptian VP in the long interview (it's still on while I write these words) stated that the youth had a legitimate demands (which were met by the President) and after the demonstrations filled the streets, the government delegated the Army to uphold the order and prevent the clashes. The Army, according to Suleiman were doing a good job - it's not what we saw on the TV screens - the Army was buttoned up inside their personnel carriers and tanks and did NOTHING to prevent any unruly behavior.
VP repeated the same line as the President stated promising the democratic elections and the immediate talks with all the fractions of the opposition. The VP asked the protesters to disperse, since their demands were heard very loud and clear and they will be acted upon as soon as this uprising is over. However positive this angle might be - this time if given to the government (and I may safely put a wager on it) it will make the apparatus of repression even stronger.
Vice President Suleiman, when commenting the clashes escalated from the peaceful demonstrations blamed flatly the subversive elements agitated by the foreign influences and the satellite TV. He denied any responsibility for sending the countless crowd of the hired thugs to the streets to stir up the demonstrations and orchestrate the confrontation. As I wrote in the previous posts, some commentators claim that as much as a million of "thugs" might be on 'stand by' and used at will by the government to make their point heard louder and more organic. Demonstrators talked openly about the former elections which were rigged with use of this kind of thugs to steal the election boxes and disturb the people who decided to vote. This kind of policy, again, is very well known from every totalitarian country in the World, where the governmental upper hand is demonstrated in a policy of intimidation and repression.
Suleiman promised a swift and precise investigation to find all the people responsible for the failure of the police to insure the peaceful behavior and prevent the looting and the damage. He promised a fast and profound investigation to find and severely punish all who were responsible for all the damage and also all who were responsible (on both sides) for the fight and damage on Tahrir Sq. Unfortunately when the government throws into the same sack all participants, those who were peaceful and had to protect themselves and those hired thugs who were attacking the protesters - it's the same repression machine which we have seen over and over again throughout the years.
Very soon the government found 'a fall guy' (in this case many) freezing the assets and the passports of many previous members of the government (former Interior Minister, etc.). It's also a very often used trick used to channel, and stupefy the nation's reaction.
The people on the street do not trust the corrupted and compromised political figures in Egypt (Suleiman is not a new face, he's a long time crony of the President). They hear the same message in the words of the VP as I heard - the promise of the mass repressions - and back to normal - even if the elections take place - the government will have enough time to rig them up again, and get rid of the opposition.
ONLY THE INTERIM GOVERNMENT (whoever is in it) may now solve the problem and give the HOPE for the future.
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
Egypt - army withdrawn... giving way to chaos...
The diabolical move by the current regime - removing the army from the street - giving a green light to complete chaos and street brawls propagated by the hired thugs..
It's the eight day of the upraising. After the Mubarak's offer of very limited changes was refused by the protesters - the regime invites the street fights. It's well known fact that the regime has a countless supply of thugs who could infiltrate any group of people and steer the street fights the way it's being propagated right now - as they did many times in the past. The army has the orders to stand down and simply observe, many took refuge inside of their personnel carriers and tanks.
The government chose a sneaky, but completely transparent to the observer way to try to discredit the anti-government movement, and portray them only as 'opposition to the stability'.
The violence of the clashes in the Tahrir Square is very typical during the demonstrations in the previous years, but between the protesters and the riot-police, not among the groups of civilians. A few hours earlier in Tahrir Square suddenly the protesters were charged by a huge group of the attackers on a horse back and camel back, riding through the group of protesters and flogging them left and right.
It also had a taste of the organized by the regime attack - there is a huge number of horse and camel mounted police, who just removed their uniforms and attacked the protesters.
It's also quite conveniently chosen moment for "pro-government" demonstration at the time when the most of the crowd dispersed and returned home in preparation for the Friday, organized action, which was supposed to lead the crowd toward the Presidential Palace.
As in the case of the looters in the previous days some of the "pro-government" attackers caught by the anti-government protesters were carrying the police ID cards. Another indication of the regime crack-down on the opposition.
It's a serious reality check for the Egyptian population. It puts the promises of the President Mubarak even less credible than before. It proves that his apparatus of oppression and spewing false propaganda is still in it's high gear. If Mubarak doesn't resign NOW, nothing is going to change in Egypt.
We can't let the democratic forces in Egypt being extinguished by the stubborn regime. It's time for the American leadership to set the terms for removal of the compromised ruler immediately.
It's the eight day of the upraising. After the Mubarak's offer of very limited changes was refused by the protesters - the regime invites the street fights. It's well known fact that the regime has a countless supply of thugs who could infiltrate any group of people and steer the street fights the way it's being propagated right now - as they did many times in the past. The army has the orders to stand down and simply observe, many took refuge inside of their personnel carriers and tanks.
The government chose a sneaky, but completely transparent to the observer way to try to discredit the anti-government movement, and portray them only as 'opposition to the stability'.
The violence of the clashes in the Tahrir Square is very typical during the demonstrations in the previous years, but between the protesters and the riot-police, not among the groups of civilians. A few hours earlier in Tahrir Square suddenly the protesters were charged by a huge group of the attackers on a horse back and camel back, riding through the group of protesters and flogging them left and right.
It also had a taste of the organized by the regime attack - there is a huge number of horse and camel mounted police, who just removed their uniforms and attacked the protesters.
It's also quite conveniently chosen moment for "pro-government" demonstration at the time when the most of the crowd dispersed and returned home in preparation for the Friday, organized action, which was supposed to lead the crowd toward the Presidential Palace.
As in the case of the looters in the previous days some of the "pro-government" attackers caught by the anti-government protesters were carrying the police ID cards. Another indication of the regime crack-down on the opposition.
It's a serious reality check for the Egyptian population. It puts the promises of the President Mubarak even less credible than before. It proves that his apparatus of oppression and spewing false propaganda is still in it's high gear. If Mubarak doesn't resign NOW, nothing is going to change in Egypt.
We can't let the democratic forces in Egypt being extinguished by the stubborn regime. It's time for the American leadership to set the terms for removal of the compromised ruler immediately.
EGYPT - point of NO RETURN...
Tuesday, February 01, 2011 - seventh day of the popular uprising in Egypt, brought a "march of millions" to Cairo, Alexandria and other places.
For some obscure reason no one gave a real estimate of the number of the protesters who gathered in Tahrir Sq today - but for a New Yorker, like myself, who have seen a million people at the Times Square during the New Year's celebration, and the same time knows the enormous size of the Tahrir Sq in the center of Cairo, it's pretty obvious that it is very well possible that the number of the demonstrators might have reached a promised by the organizers MILLION. It's not that it really matters - I believe no one can be mistaken about what the People really wanted - to oust the Dictator.
A peaceful and festive atmosphere, family style, if you will, reported from the Tahrir Sq. throughout the whole day was a strong indication that the protesting crowd was fully aware of it's power. Especially knowing that the army officially stated that they wouldn't open fire against the people under any circumstances. This festive air of anticipation was abruptly interrupted and subsequently ended by the Tv speech of the President Mubarak, which was broadly taken as an insult by the masses and considered a "sad joke".
It his speech Hosni Mubarak promised a host of concessions, including 'promise' not to run for the reelection (come on: he is 83 and of a frail health, and he seriously considered running for another 6 years long term as a President?!), as well as "talking" to the legislative body to limit the number of consecutive terms in the office. He 'promised' to 'prepare country for the democratic election, and even speed it up'. He pleaded to the people that as a public servant he served the country well, and he wants to die on the Egyptian soil. He 'promised' some economical reforms. He finally added the major assault - he insinuated that all the burning and looting was associated with the protesting crowd (!!!) and the perpetrators will be dealt with swiftly. Well, it might have had some bearing with the people a week ago, even on Friday, but today... The answer of the crowd was absolutely clear - they raised their shoes in the air, and shaking them in this act of defiance, shouted "LEAVE" (in Arab countries. raising a shoe at anybody or throwing a shoe at somebody is the most refined insult to that person - we still remember the shoes aimed at President Bush in Iraq in 2008).
President Mubarak (as I wrote in the previous posts) was at the beginning of his presidency (well into his second term) considered a savior of the nation. He brought the peace and stability. He brought the progress to the country. Better roads, more irrigation of the Sahara - during his reins the so called "desert road" between Cairo and Alexandria (about 140 miles) changed from surrounded by the sheer desert into a road traversing plantations producing dates and other nonexistent there plants.
Unfortunately, the remaining 18-20 years (the last 18-20 years) were the years of the repression, corrupt police and the corrupt lower and higher government. The inflation has been very high. In the recent years the prices of the food products raised 17% annually. In the country where a half of the common man's income is used to buy food, such an increase is a difference between being fed and being hungry.
In his speech President Hosni Mubarak proved that either he is completely senile, or completely detached from the REALITY. Either one of these assumptions is not a very convincing argument for backing him up any longer. Yes, he was a figure who was a warrant of the Peace Accord with the Israel, and respected by other members of the Arab World ruler, but without the support of his people, he is nothing but a dictator clinging to the escaping from his hands former glory.
America stands for the DEMOCRACY, JUSTICE FOR ALL, FREEDOM, and HUMAN RIGHTS. It happened many times that in a good faith we were trying to impose these Values on 'unsuspecting' anything people... It doesn't always work that easily. Some nations and societies have to grow by themselves to start craving for them. This is what is happening in Egypt right now. The society is mature enough to know that the democratic principles (which may or may not work in Iraq or Iran) are what is what they are craving for as a nation. The tenants of Democracy are the ideas already well digested by the society - right now they need to experience them.
And as I wrote before and many pundits and correspondents confirm, there is a little danger of the Islamic radicalization to the point of what happened in Iran after ousting on 11 February 1979 of the Shah of Iran Mohammad Rezā Pahlavi. It was a different era. It was a different nation (In Iran the Feudalism gave way to the Islamic Revolution). Egypt had it's revolution which brought it out from the Dark Ages. And since this revolution Egypt always rejected too extreme options. There is no reason not to anticipate a similar outcome now in the vacuum after Mubarak. I mentioned in my previous posts some radicalization which has already happened. Well paved and financed by our other ally - Saudi Arabia. But during all 7 days of the demonstrations this radical element even didn't surface. It was so far a secular protest. Let's keep it that way...
Mubarak's speech very soon brought the response from the White House. President Obama response was a very careful one, talking about "peaceful transition of power", insisting on the urgency of that transfer. Emphasizing the need of Egyptian people to chose by themselves... and that the foreign powers can't decide who would be a next ruler... But however positive President Obama's speech was, it fell short from what was hoped for and expected by the people on the Tahrir Square.
We all know that all Arab peoples are weary of the American influence and behind the scene politics. Egyptians are not the exception of this rule. They would probably reject anything what would be prearranged or helped to arrange by the US (as the current government is considered an American Puppet). Obama dispatched a former Ambassador Frank Wisner to Egypt to convey to the President Mubarak the 'necessity of the reforms and transfer of power'. However this behind the scene act instead of helping might have hurt our image even more, because it was just a proof for a common man that America is in bed with Mubarak, and since he didn't resign immediately - supports him. This was a moment in which (if played differently) the USA might have gained enormous credibility - just for making the US position stronger. Not putting anybody to fill the vacuum, but insisting on the only option for Mubarak - resigning immediately.
We were all hoped for the "Berlin Wall Moment" (when Reagan suggested bluntly: Mr. Gorbachev - tear down that wall...). Instead, maybe King Abdullah (Saudi Arabia) and Benjamin Netanyahu (Israel) sleep tonight better, but we lost the unprecedented moment to better our position among the peoples of the Middle East.
-----
The ruler of Tunisia escaped from the country a day after his 'patriotic' pledge to his people. Maybe the same will happen in case of Mubarak - contrary to his emotional desire to be buried in the Egyptian soil... What will happen in the even nearest future in Egypt is impossible to predict.
Probably the best scenario would be if the President Mubarak orders the army to shoot when the protesters march on the Presidential Palace on Friday - army refused to do so and in a swift and decisive Military Coup takes the power in the INTERIM period, before the democratic elections organized within month or two bring the legitimate Government (hopefully a coalition government having representation from all walks of life and all political shades).
It is a pure speculation, of course.
The reality maybe much less cheerful - sponsored by the government groups of thugs already tried to infiltrate the peaceful demonstrations and created havoc in Alexandria. Several looters captured by the army had the police ID on them. The current government uses all their well learned way of dishonest oppression and provocation to make sure that the common people fear the unknown more than the return of the old apparatus.
We observed such a situation and such dishonest government plots and provocations many times before - in the raising against the communist rules, countries of the former Soviet Block. The unrest in the countries like Poland, Hungary (to name only a couple) failed several times because of clever and well organized government provocations - making the people afraid of everything. Failed several times because there was not a strong Western support, or not too much of an alternative. They succeeded eventually, but much later when the people were desperate enough not to care anymore.
We do not know how much the Egyptians can tolerate from the current regime. We can't let them be tested again and again. It's time America stands by the Democratic Principles which we all respect so much. Nothing is ever certain in the situations like the one in Egypt at the moment. But we have to take the risk (not too big in my opinion at this moment) and demand from Mubarak to step down immediately, starting the democratic process in Egypt.
For some obscure reason no one gave a real estimate of the number of the protesters who gathered in Tahrir Sq today - but for a New Yorker, like myself, who have seen a million people at the Times Square during the New Year's celebration, and the same time knows the enormous size of the Tahrir Sq in the center of Cairo, it's pretty obvious that it is very well possible that the number of the demonstrators might have reached a promised by the organizers MILLION. It's not that it really matters - I believe no one can be mistaken about what the People really wanted - to oust the Dictator.
A peaceful and festive atmosphere, family style, if you will, reported from the Tahrir Sq. throughout the whole day was a strong indication that the protesting crowd was fully aware of it's power. Especially knowing that the army officially stated that they wouldn't open fire against the people under any circumstances. This festive air of anticipation was abruptly interrupted and subsequently ended by the Tv speech of the President Mubarak, which was broadly taken as an insult by the masses and considered a "sad joke".
It his speech Hosni Mubarak promised a host of concessions, including 'promise' not to run for the reelection (come on: he is 83 and of a frail health, and he seriously considered running for another 6 years long term as a President?!), as well as "talking" to the legislative body to limit the number of consecutive terms in the office. He 'promised' to 'prepare country for the democratic election, and even speed it up'. He pleaded to the people that as a public servant he served the country well, and he wants to die on the Egyptian soil. He 'promised' some economical reforms. He finally added the major assault - he insinuated that all the burning and looting was associated with the protesting crowd (!!!) and the perpetrators will be dealt with swiftly. Well, it might have had some bearing with the people a week ago, even on Friday, but today... The answer of the crowd was absolutely clear - they raised their shoes in the air, and shaking them in this act of defiance, shouted "LEAVE" (in Arab countries. raising a shoe at anybody or throwing a shoe at somebody is the most refined insult to that person - we still remember the shoes aimed at President Bush in Iraq in 2008).
President Mubarak (as I wrote in the previous posts) was at the beginning of his presidency (well into his second term) considered a savior of the nation. He brought the peace and stability. He brought the progress to the country. Better roads, more irrigation of the Sahara - during his reins the so called "desert road" between Cairo and Alexandria (about 140 miles) changed from surrounded by the sheer desert into a road traversing plantations producing dates and other nonexistent there plants.
Unfortunately, the remaining 18-20 years (the last 18-20 years) were the years of the repression, corrupt police and the corrupt lower and higher government. The inflation has been very high. In the recent years the prices of the food products raised 17% annually. In the country where a half of the common man's income is used to buy food, such an increase is a difference between being fed and being hungry.
In his speech President Hosni Mubarak proved that either he is completely senile, or completely detached from the REALITY. Either one of these assumptions is not a very convincing argument for backing him up any longer. Yes, he was a figure who was a warrant of the Peace Accord with the Israel, and respected by other members of the Arab World ruler, but without the support of his people, he is nothing but a dictator clinging to the escaping from his hands former glory.
America stands for the DEMOCRACY, JUSTICE FOR ALL, FREEDOM, and HUMAN RIGHTS. It happened many times that in a good faith we were trying to impose these Values on 'unsuspecting' anything people... It doesn't always work that easily. Some nations and societies have to grow by themselves to start craving for them. This is what is happening in Egypt right now. The society is mature enough to know that the democratic principles (which may or may not work in Iraq or Iran) are what is what they are craving for as a nation. The tenants of Democracy are the ideas already well digested by the society - right now they need to experience them.
And as I wrote before and many pundits and correspondents confirm, there is a little danger of the Islamic radicalization to the point of what happened in Iran after ousting on 11 February 1979 of the Shah of Iran Mohammad Rezā Pahlavi. It was a different era. It was a different nation (In Iran the Feudalism gave way to the Islamic Revolution). Egypt had it's revolution which brought it out from the Dark Ages. And since this revolution Egypt always rejected too extreme options. There is no reason not to anticipate a similar outcome now in the vacuum after Mubarak. I mentioned in my previous posts some radicalization which has already happened. Well paved and financed by our other ally - Saudi Arabia. But during all 7 days of the demonstrations this radical element even didn't surface. It was so far a secular protest. Let's keep it that way...
Mubarak's speech very soon brought the response from the White House. President Obama response was a very careful one, talking about "peaceful transition of power", insisting on the urgency of that transfer. Emphasizing the need of Egyptian people to chose by themselves... and that the foreign powers can't decide who would be a next ruler... But however positive President Obama's speech was, it fell short from what was hoped for and expected by the people on the Tahrir Square.
We all know that all Arab peoples are weary of the American influence and behind the scene politics. Egyptians are not the exception of this rule. They would probably reject anything what would be prearranged or helped to arrange by the US (as the current government is considered an American Puppet). Obama dispatched a former Ambassador Frank Wisner to Egypt to convey to the President Mubarak the 'necessity of the reforms and transfer of power'. However this behind the scene act instead of helping might have hurt our image even more, because it was just a proof for a common man that America is in bed with Mubarak, and since he didn't resign immediately - supports him. This was a moment in which (if played differently) the USA might have gained enormous credibility - just for making the US position stronger. Not putting anybody to fill the vacuum, but insisting on the only option for Mubarak - resigning immediately.
We were all hoped for the "Berlin Wall Moment" (when Reagan suggested bluntly: Mr. Gorbachev - tear down that wall...). Instead, maybe King Abdullah (Saudi Arabia) and Benjamin Netanyahu (Israel) sleep tonight better, but we lost the unprecedented moment to better our position among the peoples of the Middle East.
-----
The ruler of Tunisia escaped from the country a day after his 'patriotic' pledge to his people. Maybe the same will happen in case of Mubarak - contrary to his emotional desire to be buried in the Egyptian soil... What will happen in the even nearest future in Egypt is impossible to predict.
Probably the best scenario would be if the President Mubarak orders the army to shoot when the protesters march on the Presidential Palace on Friday - army refused to do so and in a swift and decisive Military Coup takes the power in the INTERIM period, before the democratic elections organized within month or two bring the legitimate Government (hopefully a coalition government having representation from all walks of life and all political shades).
It is a pure speculation, of course.
The reality maybe much less cheerful - sponsored by the government groups of thugs already tried to infiltrate the peaceful demonstrations and created havoc in Alexandria. Several looters captured by the army had the police ID on them. The current government uses all their well learned way of dishonest oppression and provocation to make sure that the common people fear the unknown more than the return of the old apparatus.
We observed such a situation and such dishonest government plots and provocations many times before - in the raising against the communist rules, countries of the former Soviet Block. The unrest in the countries like Poland, Hungary (to name only a couple) failed several times because of clever and well organized government provocations - making the people afraid of everything. Failed several times because there was not a strong Western support, or not too much of an alternative. They succeeded eventually, but much later when the people were desperate enough not to care anymore.
We do not know how much the Egyptians can tolerate from the current regime. We can't let them be tested again and again. It's time America stands by the Democratic Principles which we all respect so much. Nothing is ever certain in the situations like the one in Egypt at the moment. But we have to take the risk (not too big in my opinion at this moment) and demand from Mubarak to step down immediately, starting the democratic process in Egypt.
Sunday, January 30, 2011
Unrest in Egypt - or is it a REVOLUTION?
It's already 5 days since the Egyptian citizens decided to start unprecedented in scale in the Arab countries street protest. Tens of thousands poured to the streets to voice their disappointment with the existing conditions in the country, both political and economical. What has been brewing under the surface of the society for decades, inspired by the successful demonstration of the 'people's voice' in Tunisia, finally broke out in Egypt as well. There is a lot of speculations on the seriousness of these events to the World's stability, and to the particular US interests, but however extremely important they are in this context - they are The Most Crucial events of the lifetime to the roughly 80 Million Egyptians. Almost 50% of the Egyptian population is not older that 30 years old. These people were born and raised while the government was run by President Mubarak. Beside occasional, now and then, not well organized unrest - this is the biggest and the most serious in the 30 years of Mubarak presidency. There are a lot grievances against the regime, beginning from the sky rocketing unemployment (officially, misleadingly reported as being under 10%, but as assessed by some pundits and correspondents, going as high as a two-fold or more), through the lack of legal opposition and fixed presidential elections, and also menacing corruption of the government as well as the growing control and suppression of all the democratic aspects of life (I wrote about it in my previous post). The Police brutality, unlawful detentions, and torture have been reported throughout Egypt for a long time. It all started with a peaceful demonstrations, quite disorganized, but completely without any extreme religious undertone. The Muslim Brotherhood (for decades banned in Egypt, and demonized by the Western media as well as Egyptian government to use as a scarecrow at the occasions like the current one) didn't join the protest in the beginning. It was a "frustration of a lower middle class" and educated part of the society (students) what drove the protest to the streets. The crowd shouted democratic slogans demanding the extensive social and economical reforms. Known from a very brutal, and bloody way of responding to any unrest Riot Police didn't act at the beginning in any capacity exceeding the blocking the access to the government offices. It all changed when in Suez the demonstration turned violent. The Riot Police unleashed all the fury of the 'apparatus' using the water canons, shields and long batons, as well as shooting the rubber bullets in the crowd and shelling the concussion grenades as well as the tear gas. Many parts of the cities like Cairo or Alexandria were so saturated with the tear gas that breathing on the streets became very difficult, as reported by Ben Wedeman (CNN), Nick Robertson (CNN) or Richard Engel (NBC) The intensification of the crisis by the police changed dramatically also the position of the demonstrating youth. Slogans became more heated and from that time on demanding the removal of the Dictator, and forming the new, real, representative government. All the social media and the Internet were shut down. The cell phone service was shut down as well. All communication in Egypt was blocked out. Social media which were so crucial to the exchange of the information throughout the region, and what is in a sense responsible for encouragement of the people to attempt any protest (after what took place in Tunisia) were blocked by the government. However almost immediately something remarkable happened. Suddenly there were available multiple international telephone numbers which could have been used for sending tweets using the proxy, in France or in America. The word was out again. The violence of the police met it's match on the side of the protesters. Serious clashes continued throughout Thursday and Friday (which is religious holiday in the Muslim countries). Especially heavy was the confrontation in Alexandria. Once called the Pearl of the Mediterranean, established by the Alexander The Great, city had a cosmopolitan society. At the beginning of the XX century it's Italian, French, Greek, Arab and Jewish quarters were very well developed and could function interweaving and interacting, benefiting from the cultural variety of the inhabitants. The phenomenon inspired many, like Lawrence Durell - "The Alexandria Quartet". In the last couple of days, many of the police precincts in Alexandria, as well numerous police cars and trucks have been torched and looted. Such was also the fate of many police precincts in Cairo and across the country. While the violent confrontations with the police were intensified the army entered the theater. The Army has been considered by all the society as a noble and just organization. It's said that almost every family in Egypt has somebody in the Military. No surprise that when the tanks and the armored personnel carriers entered the streets of the cities they were met with a smile and greetings from the demonstrating and still fighting with the police people. Army didn't openly take any side, neither the government, nor the people. Well known were the instances when it became "calming" force. By the end of Friday the police was completely absent from the streets. The only remaining posts were held at the Party Headquarters in Cairo. Tweets also reported that this was a place where the police used also snipers using the live ammunition. Several people have been shot dead or wounded while at the nearby Tahrir Square "comradeship" and (as tweeted) "love fest" between soldiers and the protesting people continued. President Mubarak waited until Friday night with the speech to the nation. When he finally decided to take a stand during a life broadcast, the viewers learned nothing new. What they heard many times before, was again repeated: that the changes to improve the life and freedoms will be made and the whole government (except the President) is relieved from their duties. The same time the new Premier was appointed who would form the new government. However, people have already expressed their wishes. And they didn't include an option of Mubarak staying in power. What's more, the newly appointed Premier (Ahmed Shafik - former commander of Air Force) was considered by the street - just another stooge. The American response was measured to say the least. Our President had to "tread very carefully". Although the issue of the civil liberties of the Egyptian citizens is very vital, Egypt being one of the most important US allies in the region can not be offended, or pushed too hard. Egypt in the form as it is right now is a force aiding the US in the nuclear nonproliferation treaties, Israeli-Palestinian issues and many others. But what we read from the Obama's speech was at least strong requirement of the NON-Violent solution to the rising problem. (All interested parties know that $1.5 Billion of the US aid may be at stake). Looks like as a result, a couple of hours later the Internet and the social media were back on line. Was it a coincidence? Saturday brought suddenly creation of the office of the Vice President in the Egyptian government - an office abandoned by Mubarak since the very beginning of his Presidency, even though he himself was a Vice President while Sadat was assassinated and Sadat rose to the Presidential office also from being a Vice President during the Nasser's Presidency. And now the revived office will be run by Omar Suleiman - a current head of Intelligence, also responsible for the Interior security. As one may learn from the sources quoted on Twitter: Suleiman ran the rendition/torture program for the CIA (sources: Jane Mayer - "The dark side", Stephen Gray - "Ghostplane"). So, with the 'new' faces, everything stays the same. I am sure that the people won't buy that. "It's almost an insult to the intelligence of the people", said Mohamed ElBaradei referring to the Mubarak's offer (Mohamed ElBaradei is an opposition leader, Nobel Peace Price winner, former head of International Atomic Energy Agency). So far the Army was staying away from the fight. With the complete absence of the police and increasing danger of looting, the Army became the only form of chaos prevention. Unfortunately, since it has been deployed in a relatively small numbers there are a lot of neighborhoods in the cities where the citizens didn't have a choice but organized Neighborhood Watch Units - armed in whatever they could put their hands on, from kitchen knives to the golf clubs. It's reported that the Army along with the citizens of Cairo stand guard around the Egyptian Museum which was already affected by the angry mob. Some of the expositions have been destroyed, although nothing has been stolen so far.
As reported by Al Jezeera the looting has increased. In many instances the perpetrators caught by the neighborhood watch units happened to have the police ID cards. It appears that either the hated already police on their own decided to take advantage of the situation... or, it is the organized conspiracy of the government to create as much havoc and chaos as possible before ordering the Army to pacify the country, the same time showing off how good and caring the government is, especially compared to the alternative. It's reported that about 1000 of violent criminals escaped (or were purposely set loose) from the notorious high security prison in Fayoum (about 40 miles South from Cairo). Unfortunately during the looting of the police precincts a significant number of firearms (often assault rifles) was also acquired by looters. Such an outcome increases the danger in an absence of the law enforcement. It's estimated that so far the death toll is about 100, with a less severe casualties going into thousands. The hospitals which are right now understaffed (since some personnel simply didn't show up to work) are overwhelmed by the number of injured. The situation is worsened by the general understanding that the doctors "are" a part of the establishment, not "the people", what increases the grievances. On Sunday, the new work week starts in Egypt. What is it going to bring? Now one of the most important questions remains unanswered: Is the Army going to support the people's movement and help creating the situation in which the Mubarak's regime is left with only one solution - resignation? - or it will blindly fulfills the orders coming from the government... and everything returns to the Status Quo? Another nagging question concerns the possible political direction shift dependent on who assumes the lead role in Egypt. On one side the growing radicalization of the society is a strong factor to consider, on the other side lays the wisdom of the Egyptian People who repeatedly rejected in the Past all the attempts of the Muslim Brothers (although in Egyptian reality they are almost Main Stream) and other extreme options.
Maybe it's time for the West (with the leadership of the USA) to take side of the People more decidedly - before the order to shoot is issued by the current regime and completely unnecessary (and unacceptable) loss of life increases. I would say: the time is right about NOW...
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