It's been two weeks since the beginning of the Libyan Revolution. We still have very little of the reliable information about the state of affairs inside this desert country. There are only a few American reporters like Nick Robertson, Ben Wedeman, and Richard Engel who travel through the North part of the country where the most of the fight is taking place. There is a bit more extensive coverage of the ground by the Al Jazeera correspondents. All together the information we receive is, at best, sketchy.
As of Friday, March 04 Tripoli is an unquestionable stronghold of Gaddafi. Although with the skirmishes between the Gaddafi's army and the rebels on daily basis, the streets of Tripoli are controlled by the dictator's loyalists, and almost deserted, since the inhabitants, fearing for their life do not dare to step out of their houses.
It's not the case in other cities.
The rebels established themselves, starting in Benghazi, Tobruk, in most of the cities of the East. Farther to the West, the cities of Ajdabiya, Al Brega and Ras Lanuf are being contested. Both sides repeatedly claim to control them. The situation changes on hourly basis. It doesn't come as a surprise, since the Al Brega is one of the biggest oil terminals for the Libyan export. The only big center in the West in control of the rebels is a city of Misrata. Also the continuing fights occur in a located 50 km to the West of Tripoli - Zawiya (as well an oil terminal), where today at least 30 people lost their lives and hundreds have been wounded while the army attempted to regain control of the center of the city.
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On March 01, The UN General Assembly unanimously suspended Libya from the Human Rights Council. The economical sanctions, and travel ban on the members of the regime have been implemented. "These actions should send a strong and important message," declared U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon. "There is one community and those who commit crimes against humanity will be punished...time is of the essence, thousands of lives are at stake. It is our collective duty to stand for human rights."
In February the Arab League suspended Libya's membership after the "martyr" speech by Colonel Gaddafi. Later on, the same League rejected the option of any foreign intervention in Libya, making the issue of the "no-fly zone" even more difficult and risky. However, on March 03 the League revised it's position discussing imposing the "no-fly zone" over Libya in coordination with the African Union.
In the meantime the aircraft carrier, an amphibious assault ship, and a command vessel of the US 6th fleet moved to the vicinity of the Libyan coast.
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The Western World was caught 'off guard' by the Democratic Revolution of 2011 in so many of the Arab Countries. However, the growing discontent of the suppressed by the totalitarian regimes masses is nothing new. It brings to mind the European Spring of Nations of 1848, when there were a series of popular uprisings and revolutions. For the most part they were brutally suppressed. What is interesting is the similarities in causes that brought them about. It was as well, the massive effort on the part of the people to throw off autocratic rule.
And this is where the similarities end. The era is different, the flow of information is massive and instant, the social awareness of the people is developed much better, the World is watching...
The greatest difference lays in speed of the changes. The Tunisian, and Egyptian uprisings happened so fast, that the World didn't have a time to react properly. The inertia of the World's Powers (or let's call it for what it really is - typical "dragging of legs") allowed the revolution to progress by itself in both of these countries. Thankfully, the outcome of the revolt in both cases was surprisingly promising and surprisingly secular.
The World had treated all the Arabs condescendingly, as "social infants". There was a talk about spreading democracy, but in reality the prevailing position was that "the Arabs were not ready for democracy", and "if given a choice they would chose radicalization".
So far the Arab nations who initiated the revolution proved this theory completely wrong. But we were talking so far about relatively peaceful uprisings in the countries with a long history of the national identity, and the advanced societies...
In the case of Libya the situation is completely different. The Libyan Dictator who has been in power for 42 years didn't allow the Libyan society develop in a normal way. Crushing the opposition with an iron fist he created the society in which the personal survival became the sole life's goal. Cleverly juggling the "carrot and a stick" he created the society living their lives "day by day" without thinking of the future. When Libya became an oil producing country, creating the tremendous revenues (and fortunes for the ruling 'family' and it's cronies), Gaddafi decided that letting his own people to develop the Middle Class would be too dangerous, and "imported" most of the medical staff from other countries (in great degree from Russia and other countries of the Eastern Block), and most of the professional technical staff to run his industries, from the West. He relied almost completely on the foreign workers in his oil industry (employing hundreds of thousands of Indian, Pakistani, Chinese, Vietnamese, and also Egyptian workers).
When the unrest started, all of this "foreign work force" along with the doctors and nurses abandoned their posts returning home in a massive exodus, leaving Libya's industries severely understaffed. What is more dangerous, the hospitals and emergency services immediately suffered the "staff vacuum", unprecedented so far.
All the countries of the region are different from one another. Because of that, all these countries require completely different approach and treatment.
We have already learned that this 2011 Spring of Nations is a 'wild fire' spreading fast and in unpredictable way. Knowing it's fast pace, it's obvious that the 'normal', traditional way of reacting to the presented challenges IS NOT ADEQUATE.
It's very true in the case of Libya.
Libyan Dictator (however tragically ridiculous and deranged he is) has learned to read the Libyan people well. He knows that making stand from time to time, controlling Tripoli and making sporadic "reminder' rides on the liberated by the rebels territory, creates the fearful scenario in his people's minds. He knows that leaving the rebel centers 'alone' to a certain degree may cause the deterioration in the rebels' ranks. He and his son Saith deny any rebel activities, any loss of the territory to the rebel forces. Saith, in his interview with Anita McNaught (Al Jazeera) denied completely having ANY foreign bank accounts, ridiculing the "seizure" of Gaddafi's funds abroad. This act of defiance is repeatedly transmitted by the government owned TV channel. Since there is no working Internet, no telephone service, the isolated pockets of the anti-Gaddafi's forces are constantly misinformed. As reported by the reporters in the field, the revolution has lost the momentum in the East part of the country. This loss of the momentum, alone with misinformation, and lack of the International ACTIVE support creates the situation in which the survival of the current, inhumane Dictatorship is more, NO COMA and more feasible.
Gaddafi's regime is already condemned by the World's Powers. It's condemned by all the people. And yet, if the strong, fast (it is already late) measures are not implemented soon, Gaddafi may regain the control of most of the country. In his diabolical plan he may even, for some period of time, isolate the rebel centers in the East, slowly stabilizing the situation in the West. He may simply 'bleed' the rebels, and their enthusiasm out. These people, however passionate in their act of fighting against the hated dictator, have no military training, nor the supplies. How long can they continue the struggle without a visible end, if not supported by an outside force?
Gaddafi's and his regime is not afraid any more of the judgment. He has crossed the point of no return. There is already the Crimes Against Humanity investigation "on stand by". He and his apparatus will be brought to justice. It's only a question of time.
Gaddafi has the 'upper hand', now just playing with time, and counting on the limited "attention span" of the 'ad hoc' created rebel army. He will fall sooner or later, but if the World doesn't get unified behind any form of the intervention, the 'status quo' may continue for months ahead. A lot of people will perish, and... again we (in the West) loose the face.
America is in a very delicate and difficult situation. We can't stretch our military, running already two wars. We can't make a move unilaterally, since the Arab countries would immediately strongly oppose that (a specter of the two wars doesn't help). It's already known that even the rebels would not accept "our boots on the ground", so by default we would be limited to the air operation. America is the champion of Democracy (no one can deny that). At this moment this Champion is called upon for help, by the people of Libya, people fighting with a brutal regime, regime with no respect to any human or social values. The people in the rebel strongholds count on us. People in Tripoli, fearing for their life, count on us. The World is watching...
There is of course an option of arming the rebels. Although it never worked as expected in the past. Knowing that these weapons may end up in the hands of mercenaries, or being repossessed by the government forces doesn't make it easier. It would be considered an intervention after all.
So, until the World agrees on any forceful intervention - the only viable action America can be involved in now (and should be involved in soon) is parachuting the food and medical supplies to all the rebel pockets, providing sustenance, and boosting their morale at the same time. I would also gladly see a hospital-ship standing in a vicinity of Benghazi or Misrata allowing for medical evacuation of the seriously wounded, from the "rebel owned" cities. For now - a purely humanitarian mission, like the one which is already in progress (the food and supply delivery to the refugee camps on the Libian borders in which we ARE involved).
I wouldn't disregard completely the option of recognizing the rebel, provisional government in Benghazi as a legitimate government of the New Libya. It might be a sufficient morale boost for the fighting, and for us - the way of getting out of a 'diplomatic ditch' when dealing with the 'illegitimate' new UN Libyan ambassador (appointed yesterday by Gaddafi).
