SLOGAN


I AM YET TO LEARN ABOUT THE KIND OF GOVERNMENT WHICH IS 'FOR THE PEOPLE'...

I LOVE THE SMELL OF MY SMART-PHONE IN THE MORNING. IT SMELLS LIKE... VICTORY !
- a tribute to the Social Media

A RIGHT WORD IS WORTH A THOUSAND PICTURES...

Friday, February 11, 2011

New Egypt !!!

Mubarak's regime is no more !!!

Vice President Omar Suleiman has just announced:
PRESIDENT MUBARAK HAS STEPPED DOWN - THE MILITARY SUPREME COUNCIL HAS TAKEN POWER IN EGYPT IN THEIR HANDS and will lead the country to the stabilization.

The 30 years long oppression by the completely disconnected from reality Dictator is over.  Thanks to social media, it took just 18 days to achieve what took in other countries months or years of unrest.

WE ARE WITH THE EGYPTIAN NATION WITH ALL OUR HEARTS.

Egyptian President's parallel world... lost in translation...

17th day of the protest is over.  It was a day of hope, brutally extinguished by the denial of the President in his TV speech.
This day of hope started from the remarkable occurrence:  some Army commanders went to the protesters gathered on the Tahrir Square and announced that "all the protesters demands were going to be fulfilled tonight".  Following this statement scenes on the State TV showed the Military Supreme Council having an emergency session (what happens every blue moon).  Back in America, some time later, during the Congressional Hearing, the new head of the CIA Leon Panetta stated that according to the CIA sources we might expect Mubarak stepping down today.  The same message transpired from the Obama's speech at the University of Northern Michigan this afternoon.  The deal was done..., or was it?
Egyptian Army issued an official communique - in which they announced making the necessary steps to stabilize the situation in the country... They promised the second communique... but not delivered....

Quite delayed, Mubarak spoke to the people via the state owned TV.  Instead the farewell speech, the anxious crowd was fed with the condescending speech of the "Ruler for Life".  He announced passing the power (according to the constitutional requirements) to the Vice President Suleiman.  Mubarak retained some powers to himself: power to dissolve the Parliament, power to dissolve the Cabinet, power to call for the constitutional amendments.
Mubarak tried to play the familiar patriotic tune, referring to himself as a father figure to all the Egyptians.  He blamed again the foreign influences for all the "problems" Egypt had in the recent days.  He accused again the satellite news organizations for inciting the protest, dismissing any responsibility of himself and his government...  As a Nation's Father he condescendingly dismissed any demands of the "misguided Youth" and stressed that the stabilization of the situation might be achieved only through... HIM.
Following the President's appearance, the Vice President (now with almost full Presidential powers) added some "oil to the fire" emphasizing the effectiveness of the "partial reforms" and a good will of the "Father" President.  He also pushed a blame for the situation toward the Western (foreign in general) media.

The crowd stood flabbergasted. 

To the observer like me the current scenario starts showing vivid elements of the serious split in the Egyptian Apparatus.  The split between the current civilian government (well, not that much civilian, since both Mubarak and Suleiman were the Army generals) and the Military Supreme Council.  I understand that it's a pure speculation, but it looks like the Army (not Only the People) was surprised by the sudden, President's defiance. 
This by itself doesn't promise any positive outcome - it's well known that the Generals are the subjects of the preferential treatment in Egypt.  They do enjoy higher salaries, respect, better housing, other perks almost unimaginable in the democracies like ours...  It's in their well vested interest to support the regime.

There is however an element of the story which is a bit baffling.  A day before, the security forces guarding the access to the State run TV station spared no effort on reinforcing the barbed wire barricades in front of the building - in anticipation of perhaps "a violent response to the news next day"...  Should we believe it was a coincidence?

Now returns the same question, asked already several times since the first outburst of the protest 18 days ago:  what is the army going to do now?  The impasse caused by the defiance of the president, who is so disconnected from the reality (or at least OUR reality) that by himself brings the whole country to a standstill, requires the Army to take a stand.  Everybody understands, that in the totalitarian regimes, not only the police and a secret service are the originators of the repressions and growing disillusionment of the common men, but that the army plays in this process a difficult to disregard role. 
The latter was proved even in these last 18 days by the detainees belonging to the media - many of them have stories placing the army officers in a very unflattering light of being the executors of the tortures performed on the unsuspecting victims, 

Nevertheless, the Army might be the only force in the country, which is "sane" and organized enough to know that this may be their moment of glory if they offer their protective hand to the People instead of clinging to already shamed, disgraced and completely senile President and his Apparatus.
If they do not openly back up the protesting millions, and choose the side of the Government - observing the growing constantly numbers of the people gathering in Tahrir Sq and in front the Parliament - they will have no choice but open fire to the peacefully manifesting their disapproval people.

So far the peaceful protest, the peaceful expression of the grievances, was a proof that this method is a way which may produce the long lasting solution.  If this kind of thinking prevails - it will by itself constitute the biggest imaginable blow against the policies and the rhetoric of the Al Qaeda.  The secular society in Egypt by choosing the non-violent way of solving social and political disputes defeats the Al Qaeda in the most decisive manner.
However, If the blood is spilled in any significant manner to suppress the uprising, if the army is ordered to shoot, or again the army of "thugs" is employed to "take care" of the unrest - the Al Qaeda rhetoric will win.

I believe that by not speaking strongly and decisively for the People and AGAINST the President Mubarak, the Western governments (including the American) might find themselves in the reality in which Egypt becomes eventually infested by the radical thought.  It would be a fertile ground, in which the Al Qaeda might flourish. 
So far Egyptian people repeatedly rejected the religious extremism leading to the violence.  The current uprising surprised every observer by the non-violent and mature way of expressing such a long rooted disapproval of the system. 
The West should do everything in their powers (and I am sure we have some leverage going far beyond $1.3 Billion in military aid) to encourage the action of the People and influence the Army to do the only honorable thing to do - back up the People in the Tahrir Square.

Thursday, February 10, 2011

Egypt - the New Democracy?

17th day of the protest.  What yesterday was an "unprecedented" amount of people streaming to, and filling up the Tahrir Square, today is even greater.  There is no doubt, that this uprising is on it's way to the Victory.  Liberation Square (Tahrir Sq.) will earn it's name based on the unfolding events in front of our eyes.

Today, at 5 PM of the local time, the army announced that it was stepping in to stabilize the country.  For the last couple of days the VP Suleiman was 'threatening' the demonstrators that if they push too hard, the military coup might be the only option.  Although the army is revered in the the Egyptian society,  the protesters do not want to change the Mubarak's regime for the regime run by the Generals (behind the scenes run that way from the 1952 when the King Farouk was overturn).
What would have been probably the fulfillment of the people's demands 2 weeks ago - the President Mubarak stepping down (expected to be announced today) - today is only one of the top serious demands for restructuring of the whole system.  The disgraced police system has to be dismounted and refreshed.  The ruling National Democratic Party which shamed itself by promoting the police state, accepting the emergency law, and all the human right abuses springing from it, has to be dismounted and either restructured or replaced by a host of new parties.
People who were the prominent players in the current, repressive system (
including the VP Suleiman), are completely not acceptable by the street.

Is the VP Suleiman able to run the country putting aside his well trained and habitual apparatus of intimidation and repression?  If the street accepts him, how safe are the members of opposition in the months after the Tahrir Sq. is returned to it's "traffic jam" function?  They can be picked by the police one by one, since the polarized by the revolution society knows well all the opposition faces.

In half an hour the President Mubarak is supposed to speak live on the Egyptian State TV.  Is he going to announce his resignation?  Has he instigated the changes to the constitution allowing the VP to take the power and run the country until the general elections?  How is the street going to react to the 'partial' changes.  How patient are the people on the street.

As proven by history over and over, the Revolution (however difficult and bloody it might be) is the easy part of the transformation of the country.

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Egyptian Protests - Gaining the Momentum again...

15th day - while both, supporters of the protest and it's foes were observing what they thought was a lack of the momentum - Tuesday brought to the Tahrir Square and many other places across the country completely unprecedented amount of the peaceful demonstrators.  The momentum returned to the movement. 
At least three important developments were responsible for such a surprising, for many, outcome.  First was the Vice President Suleiman's yesterday statement that "Egypt simply isn’t ready for democracy" which infuriated not only the Egyptian people but changed as well the attitude of the US government toward this 'hand-picked' possible successor of the current dictator.  The second reason was the morning announcement of a incremental successions and promise of parliamentary, and constitutional changes (again without any time-line, nor mentioning giving in to the main demand - ousting the President Mubarak).  At the same time Suleiman made a statement condemning the 'demeaning, and belittling of Egypt' by the protesters, and warning that the government can't put up with these protests for much longer.  It was considered, and rightfully so, as a direct threat against the participants of the uprising.
The third factor and probably the most emotionally important was a release from detention of the Google executive Wael Ghonim, who was missing since January 27.  Despite that he was arrested and held by the state security, the government was denying that fact, lying shamelessly to all who were looking for him.  Ghonim (a Google executive on the Middle East), was the author of a Facebook page which has been credited with sparking a public outcry over police torture and helping inspire the protests demanding an end to President Hosni Mubarak's 30 year rule.  He was released yesterday immediately acquiring (despite his humble protests) status of a hero and an idol of the crowd.   He has joined the protesters on Tahrir Sq. and spoke to them several times warming them up and preparing for the long process ahead.

So far the protest, however well organized and persistent, has been 'leaderless'.  The Mubarak's regime with it's apparatus of repressions did a "really good job" dismantling, and/or imprisoning any organized opposition during the 30 years of the "marshal law".  Only the Muslim Brotherhood is still intact - but doesn't constitute the representation neither the protesters (they joined the movement when it was already fully fledged), nor the nation, since their popularity is estimated at 25% only.
We were discussing the influence of the other figures, like Mohamed ElBaradei, or Amir Mousa, who could take part in forging the Transitional Government or become the leaders of newly formed organizations or parties.  But this movement, this uprising belongs to the disenfranchised young people.  They are in need of the young leaders - people who they could relate to.  They need leaders, who could understand the issues associated not with the past, but the FUTURE.  Certainly the young and passionate Wael Ghonim is such a person.  Educated, successful, passionate... and with a HERO status.

Most of the social uprisings, if not joined by the people from all layers of the society fail sooner or later.  It is crucial that this movement is built not only of the educated youth, but also workers and other groups of the society.  Until today it wasn't the case.  However on the 15th day of the uprising the workers in Suez joined the protest organizing a strike - in support of the protest in Cairo - also demanding the creation of the Free Workers Unions.  What we take for granted in America, Egypt has never had.  Their time is NOW.

So far VP Suleiman and all other members of the appointed recently cabinet tried to shift the blame for the Egyptian financial losses caused by the uprising directly to the protesters, even though the government (not the protesters) disrupted the Internet, the government (not the protesters) stopped the railroad, and prevented the airports from the normal functioning, the government (not the protesters) closed the stock exchange.  The only way this blame can't be shifted and reassigned to the protesters is if/when the workers join the fight stopping the industry from normal functioning.
Unfortunately,  the only way to convince the powerful business in Egypt, that the only way to proceed farther is to get rid of the current Mubarak's government, is through affecting their pocket book.  Otherwise Egyptian Business doesn't have any stimuli to share the sentiment with the people. 
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While the government plays a 'cat and mouse' game promising the reforms and insisting on the constitutional need of the President Mubarak to lead the changes, the street, tired of the prolonged game and lies started demanding a broader changes.  During the last 30 years the Constitution of Egypt has been amended several times creating a very convenient to the Dictator situation.  In order to change and amend the Constitution the President has to instigate it.  It's a political farce.  It's a farce which was "bought" without questioning by the European and US governments.
However the crowd on the street has much easier solution.  Instead amending the completely inadequate and compromised document - the People insist on replacing it by the new one - along with replacing all the members of the shamed and disgraced government.

Mubarak's plan is almost diabolical:
His right hand Suleiman (chief-spy and renderer) will lead the 'changes' while he (Mubarak) waits until the September elections in his "throne".  By the time the elections are called for, the whole opposition is already caught and removed from the political theater.
According to the current constitution (compromised by the Dictator) when the President is removed - the Speaker of the Parliament leads the Interim government (not a VP), no changes to the constitution are allowed, and the elections are called for within 2 months.  Of course there is no organized opposition ready to take part in such elections.  The only force sufficiently organized and ready now is the Muslim Brotherhood.  This scenario acts like a scarecrow to all the observing Western powers.  As leaked out - Suleiman deliberately demonized the Muslim Brotherhood to assure these sentiments..
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It looks like what people are asking for right now makes the most sense - removing the corrupted government along with the (not working) constitution and start from scratch - establishing the Interim Government with the support of the Army, giving the people time to organize themselves in the atmosphere free of fear of repressions.  It wouldn't take long, but it might be a year before they are really prepared for implementing all the principles of the democratic process - for the first time in their entire lives.  They deserve the chance.

Monday, February 7, 2011

America - stand by your virtues...

The uprising in Egypt has been on everybody's mind for roughly 2 weeks.  It had been in a way anticipated after the spark of the Tunisian unrest.  It has created some strong reactions (including my own).  All the channels of the Cable TV were partially 'hijacked' by the fast progressing fire and emotions spawn from it.
And then the Egyptian Government started using the same policy, used successfully before several times, trying to 'outlast' the protesters.  Playing the remorse card, and the economical dire straights caused by the upheaval, they try to channel the emotions of the nation.  The life returns to normal, with the protesters 'rounded up' and isolated.  The World is starting looking at the unfolding situation as almost a side show, an interruption of the regularly scheduled programming.  It doesn't happen unplanned - this is a goal of the Egyptian Government.  With the lost interest of the foreign media some time from now they will be able to extinguish the revolution any way they see fit. 
The promises given by the current, new (already in session) cabinet do not have any time-line (except of the regularly scheduled presidential elections in September), do not have any decisive statement - they just promise a discussion about changing the outdated and harmful for democratic process articles of the Constitution.  The crowd in Tahrir Sq. is not leaning toward believing in it.   I share their sentiments.   We have heard it in the past, we hear it now.  It's more than possible that the cynical phrase:  THE OLD RETURNS... will become the reality.

However, it's our responsibility, not to let this uprising dissolve and pass to oblivion, by talking about it, tweeting about it, writing about it, asking the media about it - showing interest assuring a continuous interest, and attention paid to this extraordinary social movement.

Egyptian wealth...

Egypt has always been a country of the enormous economical contrasts.  The legacy of the pre-Nasser era (poverty of the most of the population) has been lingering through the decades of the subsequent regimes.  The National Gross Product rose in a steady pace.  However the gap between the rich and the poor has been increasingly widening.  A huge part of the Egyptian population lives on less than $2.0 a day - which right now is probably sufficient to supply the basic food on the table, but literally nothing else, let alone the accommodation, clothes and other expenses associated with living in a country with growing steadily importance, like Egypt.  More than 50% of the population is younger than 30.  Among them the huge percentage is jobless (not the less than 10% of he total work force).

In this context we have to look at the 'monetary value' of the government officials.  It has a direct correlation with growing disappointment of the masses which led to the uprising.  Let's have a look at some of the details:

Mubarak's family's wealth is estimated to be close to $70 BILLION.  Taking under consideration the length of his reigns (30 years), it makes the increase of around  $2.3 Billion / year.

We all know that the United States helps Egypt in the amount around $1.7 Billion / year.  The simple calculation shows that he 'skimmed' the system (well, the word 'skimmed' doesn't really apply to the act of appropriation of the public funds in such a degree) annually of $600 Million more than the whole US help.  I understand that some of this growing fortune is the result of the 'smart' investing - but this argument is lost and inadequate for me the same way as 'quite legal' earnings of the businesses owned by Comorra (Neapolitan crime organization).  What count is the fact of appropriation in the illegal way enough money to launch all these 'legal' businesses.

Former Interior Minister Habib Al Adly is worth $1.4 Billion, former Trade Minister Mohamed Rachid is worth $1.8 Billion, former Housing Minister Ahmed al-Maghraby is worth $1.4 Billion, and the list goes on.  The whole government has been immersed so deeply in the corrupt economical polices of the favoritism, that the only way to deal with that now is to dismiss the whole government and start all over again.

However this ally of the United States didn't have to look too far for an example of such governmental business involvement and sprung from it favoritism.  During the whole Presidency of Bush Jr.  big part of his government had the serious relationship with the big business, and what is more important in this case, with the Arab based business and groups of interest.

Dick Cheney was a chief executive officer of Halliburton from 1995 through August 2000 (before becoming the VP).  Democrats pointed out that Cheney received deferred compensation from Halliburton under an arrangement he made in 1998, and also retains stock options (while being the Bushes VP).  After the Gulf War was over (it's still simmering), all the major oil related contracts went to the Halliburton - as the most qualified candidate - or is it just a policy of favoritism. The former US President, George Herbert Walker Bush  was on board of Directors of the Carlyle Group  (or "The Ex-Presidents' Club") with the strong ties to the Saudi businessmen.  Carlyle also has become the thread which indirectly links American military policy in Afghanistan to the personal financial fortunes of its celebrity employees, not least the current president's father.  The firm also gave George W. Bush help in the early 1990's when it placed him on one of its subsidiary's board of directors. "Questions are now bound to be raised if the recent Bush Administration change in policy towards Iraq has the fingerprints of the Carlyle Group, which is trying to gain investments from other Arab countries who would presumably benefit from the new policy," stated Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton.  It was a few years ago, but how was the US policy in the region influenced by that?

I will leave you to make a line connecting these dots yourselves.
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Besides the accusations of the mishandling of the public funds, and other forms of corruption, all the government officials have been accused of being the active parts of the "repression machine" well functioning throughout the decades.  As I mentioned in the former posts, the 'thug' attacks on the protesters as well as all the violence against the media members were by all blamed on the government.  Recently TV anchor Hala Fahmy to Al Jazeera stated: "Information Minister Anas al-Feki is behind the Baltagiya (thug) attacks on Meydan Tahrir (Tahrir Square) protesters".   It goes along the accusations made by the American Intelligence community which is sure that the orders came from the government - it's only unknown how high (how close the President) were the orders originated.

The Egyptian Government insists on keeping Mubarak as a fully functioning President to instigate all the necessary constitutional changes which were asked for by the protesters (which also transpire from the VP's talks with the opposition).  This position is surprisingly shared by the US envoy (Ambassador Wisner) who backs Mubarak up "acting as a private citizen - and not expressing the position of the US Government" (as stated by spokesman of the US Government).  How far Ambassador Wisner complicated the situation in Egypt, is hard to estimate. It's safe to say that it empowers the compromised government tremendously, and doesn't go well with the surrounded by the army protesters on the Tahrir Square who made up their mind days ago.

According to the popular views Mubarak still must go away.