17th day of the protest is over. It was a day of hope, brutally extinguished by the denial of the President in his TV speech.
This day of hope started from the remarkable occurrence: some Army commanders went to the protesters gathered on the Tahrir Square and announced that "all the protesters demands were going to be fulfilled tonight". Following this statement scenes on the State TV showed the Military Supreme Council having an emergency session (what happens every blue moon). Back in America, some time later, during the Congressional Hearing, the new head of the CIA Leon Panetta stated that according to the CIA sources we might expect Mubarak stepping down today. The same message transpired from the Obama's speech at the University of Northern Michigan this afternoon. The deal was done..., or was it?
Egyptian Army issued an official communique - in which they announced making the necessary steps to stabilize the situation in the country... They promised the second communique... but not delivered....
Quite delayed, Mubarak spoke to the people via the state owned TV. Instead the farewell speech, the anxious crowd was fed with the condescending speech of the "Ruler for Life". He announced passing the power (according to the constitutional requirements) to the Vice President Suleiman. Mubarak retained some powers to himself: power to dissolve the Parliament, power to dissolve the Cabinet, power to call for the constitutional amendments.
Mubarak tried to play the familiar patriotic tune, referring to himself as a father figure to all the Egyptians. He blamed again the foreign influences for all the "problems" Egypt had in the recent days. He accused again the satellite news organizations for inciting the protest, dismissing any responsibility of himself and his government... As a Nation's Father he condescendingly dismissed any demands of the "misguided Youth" and stressed that the stabilization of the situation might be achieved only through... HIM.
Following the President's appearance, the Vice President (now with almost full Presidential powers) added some "oil to the fire" emphasizing the effectiveness of the "partial reforms" and a good will of the "Father" President. He also pushed a blame for the situation toward the Western (foreign in general) media.
The crowd stood flabbergasted.
To the observer like me the current scenario starts showing vivid elements of the serious split in the Egyptian Apparatus. The split between the current civilian government (well, not that much civilian, since both Mubarak and Suleiman were the Army generals) and the Military Supreme Council. I understand that it's a pure speculation, but it looks like the Army (not Only the People) was surprised by the sudden, President's defiance.
This by itself doesn't promise any positive outcome - it's well known that the Generals are the subjects of the preferential treatment in Egypt. They do enjoy higher salaries, respect, better housing, other perks almost unimaginable in the democracies like ours... It's in their well vested interest to support the regime.
There is however an element of the story which is a bit baffling. A day before, the security forces guarding the access to the State run TV station spared no effort on reinforcing the barbed wire barricades in front of the building - in anticipation of perhaps "a violent response to the news next day"... Should we believe it was a coincidence?
Now returns the same question, asked already several times since the first outburst of the protest 18 days ago: what is the army going to do now? The impasse caused by the defiance of the president, who is so disconnected from the reality (or at least OUR reality) that by himself brings the whole country to a standstill, requires the Army to take a stand. Everybody understands, that in the totalitarian regimes, not only the police and a secret service are the originators of the repressions and growing disillusionment of the common men, but that the army plays in this process a difficult to disregard role.
The latter was proved even in these last 18 days by the detainees belonging to the media - many of them have stories placing the army officers in a very unflattering light of being the executors of the tortures performed on the unsuspecting victims,
Nevertheless, the Army might be the only force in the country, which is "sane" and organized enough to know that this may be their moment of glory if they offer their protective hand to the People instead of clinging to already shamed, disgraced and completely senile President and his Apparatus.
If they do not openly back up the protesting millions, and choose the side of the Government - observing the growing constantly numbers of the people gathering in Tahrir Sq and in front the Parliament - they will have no choice but open fire to the peacefully manifesting their disapproval people.
So far the peaceful protest, the peaceful expression of the grievances, was a proof that this method is a way which may produce the long lasting solution. If this kind of thinking prevails - it will by itself constitute the biggest imaginable blow against the policies and the rhetoric of the Al Qaeda. The secular society in Egypt by choosing the non-violent way of solving social and political disputes defeats the Al Qaeda in the most decisive manner.
However, If the blood is spilled in any significant manner to suppress the uprising, if the army is ordered to shoot, or again the army of "thugs" is employed to "take care" of the unrest - the Al Qaeda rhetoric will win.
I believe that by not speaking strongly and decisively for the People and AGAINST the President Mubarak, the Western governments (including the American) might find themselves in the reality in which Egypt becomes eventually infested by the radical thought. It would be a fertile ground, in which the Al Qaeda might flourish.
So far Egyptian people repeatedly rejected the religious extremism leading to the violence. The current uprising surprised every observer by the non-violent and mature way of expressing such a long rooted disapproval of the system.
The West should do everything in their powers (and I am sure we have some leverage going far beyond $1.3 Billion in military aid) to encourage the action of the People and influence the Army to do the only honorable thing to do - back up the People in the Tahrir Square.
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