Libya - I am baffled and bewildered...

I am baffled and bewildered by an impasse in the UN Libyan talks, caused by a few undecided countries in the UN Security Council.  While 3 weeks ago Gaddafi was pounding the opposition using his air force - all we heard from our media was:  "unconfirmed reports suggest the use of the aircrafts against the civilian population...".  We heard from our Leaders, that the "violence against civilians must stop...", and "all guilty of the war crimes will be brought to justice...".  We heard:  "we would impose the no-fly zone over Libya if only Arab League accepted it, and the atrocities were unquestionably high...". 
On Saturday (03.12) the Arab League, after days of deliberation came with the unprecedented call - asking the Western World to impose the no-fly zone over Libya.  There is no question if Gaddafi's forces use an aerial bombardments against the Opposition.  There is no question if the Gaddafi's forces get the upper hand because of their military superiority AND the Western Indecision...

And now we hear that the no-fly zone wouldn't fix anything, it wouldn't prevent the massacre, because in this war Gaddafi is not relying solely on the aerial attacks, but uses the ground forces and the artillery.  Of course, no one can deny that the Regime uses all the weapons in their arsenal including the tanks, heavy artillery, special forces... not only the air force.  It is out of the question, but if deprived from the air superiority, with his air force being smashed to smithereens, and without any anti-air batteries, Gaddafi wouldn't be so cocky and defiant. 

We were already talking about arming the rebels' army and providing them with any necessary supply and support.  They have already proved that given a chance they can fight like the regular army.  It has been surprising, to say the least, that they could stand against the Regime so strongly.
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Our coalition Armies attacked Iraq twice.  First time to slap Saddam's hands for being a naughty boy and invading our ally - Kuwait.  The second time on a quest for WMD - which the CIA couldn't find, no matter how meticulously they looked for them.
And then the deposing of the Dictator wasn't a bad idea, even though all experts knew that the power vacuum in this split ethnically country would have completely unpredictable consequences.  And we did it nevertheless - with a clear vision of the spoils (an access to the Iraq's oil and plenty of lucrative contracts for Halliburton and the like...).  Now, 10 years later we leave the damaged goods behind us. 

Libya is a different story.  We already learned (or we simply can't learn), that this Spring of Nations in Arab countries of the Middle East works on the different ground then the "specter of the Muslim radicalism" with which we have been threatened constantly, for decades.  Although some Republicans in our country do not believe in it - the EVOLUTION is what creates changes in the world.  This Evolution applies not only to the DNA of the particular species, but also, and maybe, above all, to the social DNA of the developing socially nations.

And so, the unruly, socially undeveloped, and for 42 years deprived from any real political life, Libya creates the National Council in the first 10 days of the uprising.  For some reason, the Opposition is wise enough to use the people with the experience (they gained it in the Gaddafi's regime, yes, but they chose the opposition), who could fill the post-Gaddafi  vacuum.
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I have been writing about this particular aspect of the Revolutions sweeping the Middle East from the very beginning.  Nothing is as previously predicted.  Nothing is the way it has been happening for decades.  No single Anti-American demonstration, no flag burning.  Quite a contrary, the reverence for the democratic principles for which the USA stands, and hope for help. 
I couldn't believe how long it took to make a stand which allowed the Egyptian Army to end this Mubarak farce.   Fortunately for the US, the events happened so fast, that even our indecision didn't ruin it.  And now we can count on the fruitful cooperation with the democratic Egypt - probably the same way as previously on the ties with the Dictator.  The same with Tunisia.

However in the case of Libya the story gets a bit more complicated.  Gaddafi has never been a democratic Leader.  In the beginning he lead the popular revolution, but soon enough he used the "Green Book" to muzzle any democratic forces in the country and successfully rid Libya of any subversive element... 
Apparently not all of them have been lost, beaten, tortured, imprisoned, killed.  Sweeping the Middle East (and not only), the wind of the modern, democratic ideas, found a fertile ground even under the repressive hand of the flamboyant buffoon - Dictator Colonel Gaddafi.
Unfortunately Gaddafi knows very well that before the Europe, UN, or even America can organize themselves to act against him, the rebellion will be OVER.  He is very well aware of the powers he has, and how destructive can be the blows of his war machine.  He has had enough time in his 34 years of defiance (before 2003 when he denounced terrorism for the benefit of the Western World) to know how long time is needed to debate on any important issues within the UN.  Even knowing about his, not destroyed yet, 9 metric tons of the Mustard Gas doesn't speed up the process.  And I thought that WMD is a term which always galvanizes the World's Leaders...

We all have to keep in mind that as fast as this revolution was ignited, that fast Gaddafi can defeat the Opposition forces ad bring back "the law and order",  if he is left with a sufficient time to do so, and not stopped immediately.

When we lose time on pointless arguments, and despite the urgent calls of the Rebels and the Arab League, sit on our hands - we deliver the message to the World and in particular to the People of the Arab countries.  And this is not the message we would like to send...  In the meantime Gaddafi uses his air force as much as he can, decimating the rebels, systematically and on schedule.  Schedule which he already knows by heart - The UN schedule.
A brilliant correspondent in Libya, Hoda Abdel-Hamid in her tweet on Wednesday afternoon asked: "The world needs to protect Benghazi if it really wants stability... or is it too uncomfortable to let go of #Libya's oil?".  

Why do we have to ask this question.  We, in Western World value greatly the principles of democracy.  We have fought and have died for them...
And of course it helps when the object of our help and support provides us with a strong incentives to do so.  But even in this context do not dismiss Libya all along.  When/if the Opposition forces win and the New Libya (the one with 3 colored flag) revises their commercial obligations - I am pretty sure, that those who help them now wouldn't have to worry for the outcome of these revisions...

Libya - desperate wait... indecision... WMD...

We are fast approaching a full month since the beginning of the Libyan revolt against the notorious Dictator and his regime.  It started on the February 15. 2011.
For quite a while Gaddafi played a relatively safe for himself game of the "limited atrocities" against his own people.  Most of his brutal moves happened "off camera" since he imposed the 'media blackout' at the beginning, and later, even after inviting the media back to Libya, controlled their access to any part of the country.
We were learning of the crimes of the regime from the scarce reports of the eye witnesses - always with the waiver: "the video (or relation) couldn't be independently confirmed...".
Already in the first week of the fights we learned about the air bombardments delivering the tactical blows to the rebel forces.  Not the constant, heavy bombardments which would trigger the international response immediately,  but the measured, demoralizing, and frightening hits, leaving a few dead in the field and the hundreds, or thousands fearing for their lives.
The rebels asked for the "no-fly zone" right at the beginning of the Gaddafi's use of the air force.  To no avail.
The Arab League stubbornly denied the call for the no-fly zone effectively tying up the "Western Hands".  For weeks we all heard about the possible ways to intervene, raging from the unilateral American action, through the no-fly zone imposed by the NATO forces, or French unilateral military involvement, to the continuous. and bringing no solution talks in the UN. 
The divide has been widening instead of disappearing.  China and Russia stand strongly against any form of the foreign intervention fearing that the created precedence would in the long run hurt their attempts to "pacify" the discontent in their countries.
In the meantime the US 5th Fleet "parked" in front of the Gaddafi's "windows", joined by some NATO forces - ready for any change of the policy to launch the attack...

And then on Saturday, March 12, The Arab League called for the NO-FLY ZONE to be imposed over Libya.  One would think, that all the necessary conditions to actually impose the no-fly zone have been met.  Unfortunately, it's not the case.  In such a time sensitive situation the Emergency session of the Security Council should have been called for, right after the Arab League call on Saturday.  OK, it was late in the day, so I would expect it to happen on Sunday...  The Council finally assembled on Monday for a "closed door" session.  It may take days, if not weeks to before the unanimous decision is achieved (although the draft resolution is promised today).  But in a few weeks there may be no more need for any help to the rebels.  There will be no rebels any more.

I stress it in all my posts:  Gaddafi is a very experienced, and efficient Dictator.  He has been playing a "cat and mouse" game with the West for decades.  Counting on the division between the points of view in the World he measures his attacks to be effective against the rebels, depleting their morale, resources, and reducing the amount of the fit-to fight volunteers, the same time avoiding the "Srebrenica like massacre".  The rebels slowly loose grip of the "liberated" territories.  The government army forces the rebels out of their strongholds, and then loosens the grip with which it holds to the regained terrain just to let the opposition forces to commit more effort to fight for these sites over and over, "bleeding" slowly out, and loosing the momentum.
On Monday Gaddafi announced an offer of the general Amnesty to all the Rebel Fighters if they stop the uprising.  No one has any doubts that this kind of offer wouldn't guarantee ANY impunity to the opposition forces, once the Dictator is back in power 100%.  But, is the "revolutionary army" unified enough to dismiss this sort of tricks?  People are hurt, tired, hungry and with no visible support from the outside.  How long can they sustain the fight, having nothing but hope...?

Gaddafi sent his envoys to Brussels (the seat of the European Government and the NATO Headquarters), and Cairo to try to convince the World's powers that the "status quo" might be regained and it is in the interest of the West to let it happen.  So far the NATO refused to talk to the Gaddafi's emissaries.
Yesterday, the Dictator met with the Ambassadors of China, Russia and India to farther reassure the representatives of these Super-Powers of the benefits of the survival of his regime. 
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The No-Fly Zone was called for a long time ago.  If imposed then, balance of the powers would have been shifted toward the Opposition Forces tremendously.  It hasn't happen.  What is the no-fly zone going to change, If imposed in a few days?  A lot of damage has been done already.  The fear factor established.  The no-fly zone, by itself is completely useless against any helicopter attacks.  Gaddafi has a number of attack helicopters, as well as Chinook transport helicopters.  Some of them remember the times of close ties with Russia years ago, some have been bought in the recent years in violation of the arms embargo.  Shame on those who profited from the arms deals with Gaddafi (Italy, Russia, China, Algeria...).

As brought to our attention by some reports, the loophole in the existing, imposed by the UN arms embargo on Gaddafi's regime, allows for arming the Revolutionary forces.  I hope that this option is still on the table, and considered along the no-fly zone.  However, we have the long and (to say the least) spotty history of arming the rebel forces in the countries of our interest.  We all remember Nicaragua, Afghanistan, we can recall our initial involvement in Viet-Nam.  Besides any moral issues, this sort of support is always risky, and often backfires. 
Although there is a strong and decisive opposition of the countries in the region to any "foreign intervention" in the form of deployment of the army on the ground - the "no-fly zone" (as called for by the Arab league) also involves the air strikes neutralizing the air-defense capabilities of the Libyan governmental forces.   This may, and will cause the protests of the Regional Powers (who perhaps do not realize what is involved in imposing such restrictions).
Any, even the most precise "surgical" air strikes will bring the casualties.  We heard already, during any other conflict, the enemy's claims about the "civilian" casualties, even if no civilians were present in the target zones.  We will hear Libya government's cries protesting against the "collateral civilian damage", no matter how careful the Western forces will be.  We know already, that Libya has at least 13 anti-aircraft batteries.  According to the military commentators they are all consisting of the aging, but formidable Russian equipment, which if well maintained may create a problem to even far superior technologically Western air assault.  These batteries would have to be eliminated.  However, by default, in the countries like Libya these batteries are located in the heavy populated areas...
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America invaded Iraq to prevent the Hussain regime from the use the (non existent) Weapons of Mass Destruction.  It gave us the moral authority to invade and conquer Iraq.  It gave us the moral authority to remove the Dictator from power, and execute him in Baghdad soon afterwords.  However, Iraq didn't have ANY Weapons of Mass Destruction.  the whole invasion was called for on false pretenses...
In the case of the Colonel Gaddafi we play with the 'kid gloves'.  The moral reservation against the "any country interference in the affairs of another country" has been voiced over and over.  But let's not forget that Gaddafi's regime by now destroyed only 2/3 of their stash of the MUSTARD GAS, having still more than 9 metric tons of this Weapon of Mass Destruction in it's arsenal.  Since the beginning of the conflict, the concerned voices have been heard, warning about the danger of the Regime using the toxic agent against the opposition.  For some reason, so far, this argument wasn't used in the talks about the Western reaction to the war atrocities attempted by the Dictator.

Maybe it's time to get reminded about this clear and present danger !

Japan - hit by a terrible natural disaster. Man made (partially) catastrophe in the waiting...

The earthquake of magnitude of 9.0 (revised on Monday) in the Richter scale hit Japan on Friday.  The biggest earthquake which hit the islands for almost 140 years.  Japan is used to the quakes, most of them do not cause too much damage to the buildings any more (thanks to the strict anti-quake building code).  The last, which was a devastating blow to the country was so called Kobe Earthquake in January 1995, which had a magnitude of 7.3.  The city was in ruins and approximately 6,434 people lost their lives (final estimate as of December 22, 2005); about 4,600 of them were from Kobe.  The building code has been since improved, the city has been rebuilt in 85%. 
The earthquake which came unexpectedly on Friday, March 11, 2011 had an epicenter several miles to the East of the Pacific shore.  It was felt in the whole country causing a limited damage even in Tokyo.  However, the most devastating was the Tsunami following the tremors.  It swapped the Eastern shore of the Japanese Islands leveling everything standing on it's way with the 30 feet high wave.  The whole cities on the cost simply disappeared.  Thousands of people lost their lives. The official government statement said that it was the most terrible disaster in the post-war Japanese history.  A long time will pass before the grim effect of this catastrophe will be known in detail...

All of the developed countries immediately rushed to help the suffering people of Japan.  The needs of all the affected people and their fate are on the minds of everyone in the World. 

Unfortunately, the Friday earthquake caused the damage to some reactors in the Japanese Nuclear Power Plants.
Japan's electrical power needs are enormous.  Since 1973 the nuclear energy has been a national strategic priority.  At this point, Japan is the third largest user of nuclear generated power, with 53 working nuclear reactors.  They provide about 35% of Japan's electricity.  Their nuclear industry has been operating without any major catastrophe (like Three Mile Island accident or the Chernobyl disaster).  However, starting in the mid-1990s there were several nuclear related accidents and cover-ups in Japan that eroded public perception of the industry, resulting in protests and resistance to new plants. These accidents included the Tokaimura nuclear accident, the Mihama steam explosion, cover-ups after an accidents at the Monju reactor, among others, more recently the Chūetsu offshore earthquake aftermath (6.6 magnitude in 2007).
It brings us to the aftermath of the latest, huge earthquake followed by a tsunami.  Although the most of the power plants haven't reported any damages - the Fukushima Daiichi plant – which runs on a plutonium-based fuel, developed the grave problems.  Directly as a result of the quake, the reactor's #3 cooling system  failed, causing the overheating of the core.  It lead to the exposing of the fuel rods, generating the Hydrogen in the containment area, what lead to the explosion of the Hydrogen rich atmosphere and the destruction of the containment structure.  Reports warn about the similar damage to the neighboring reactor.  Although the radiation levels so far haven't been catastrophic, and thousands of the people have been evacuated from the immediate proximity of the plant to the safe distance, experts warn of the possibility of unprecedented nuclear disaster.  So far a number of the inhabitants of that area have been exposed to some radiation, prior to the evacuation. 

What we have to take under consideration is that Japan is located in the most active seismic area in the World - so called "Ring of Fire".  Japan lays on the junction of the three major tectonic plates: North American, Eurasian and Pacific plates, and is close to the Phillipine plate.  It is well known that the earthquakes are a part of normal life of this country.  It is also known, that sometimes the nature goes beyond the "usual" and surprises us with it's ferocity.   In such a context it's very arrogant to assume that the man-made structure (and man-made machinery) is constructed robustly enough to withstand a 'surprise attack' by the Mother Nature.  Apparently the latest earthquake is more than these structures can handle.

If we use a 'statistical' approach to assess the 'survivability' of the structures like a conventionally powered power plant - we may accept a small percentage of the projected failures. Any damage to these conventional plants may cause death and injury to some people, but the affected area would be limited to local only, and the damages wouldn't leave any lasting contamination.

WE CAN'T APPLY STATISTICAL APPROACH to the assessment of the projected damages to the nuclear plans.  We, as a humanity, can't control the nuclear reactions if anything goes wrong.  We can't prevent the release of the radioactive gasses, steam, or water if there is any failure of the plant's infrastructure.  

So far almost 2 hundred people have been exposed to some levels of radiation.  If the repair teams succeed cooling down the 2 problematic reactors, maybe there will be no more harm done to the population.  However, the assessment of the situation which transpires from the reports is far from being that optimistic.  We heard already about the possibility of the meltdown, or explosion...  If it happens, the affected area may be enormous (depending on the prevailing direction of the winds carrying the radioactive cloud). 
Is it so difficult understanding, that although generally safe, in the crisis situation, the nuclear power plants are EXTREMELY DANGEROUS.  And the danger goes far beyond the Japanese Islands, and it's not limited to the present only, but may be extended for many decades ahead.

The World's resources of the Uranium are already scarce (although it might be argued based on the increase of the technology involved in exploration, recovery, and the use of lower-content ore).  The next technological step is application of the Plutonium as a fuel of the reactors, mixed uranium and plutonium oxide, to be precise.  This fuel is much more difficult to handle, runs in much higher temperatures and if not cooled properly leads to the MELTDOWN when the temperature rises to 2200 degrees Celsius.  If not cooled, the core of the reactor reaches that temperature very soon (at the temp. of 1000 C the water converts to hydrogen and another explosion is likely).

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Should we play with the powers which we vaguely control (conditionally - only if everything works)?   Should we arrogantly risk the health and life of the countless number of people, and risk condemning the huge areas to be uninhabitable for many decades because of the radiation contamination?   I do not think so.
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Our hopes and wishes are with the people of Japan.  Hopes and wishes, that the blow that Mother Nature has already delivered is ALL what they have to suffer, and it's not going to be worsened by a horrifying nuclear disaster.