We are fast approaching a full month since the beginning of the Libyan revolt against the notorious Dictator and his regime. It started on the February 15. 2011.
For quite a while Gaddafi played a relatively safe for himself game of the "limited atrocities" against his own people. Most of his brutal moves happened "off camera" since he imposed the 'media blackout' at the beginning, and later, even after inviting the media back to Libya, controlled their access to any part of the country.
We were learning of the crimes of the regime from the scarce reports of the eye witnesses - always with the waiver: "the video (or relation) couldn't be independently confirmed...".
Already in the first week of the fights we learned about the air bombardments delivering the tactical blows to the rebel forces. Not the constant, heavy bombardments which would trigger the international response immediately, but the measured, demoralizing, and frightening hits, leaving a few dead in the field and the hundreds, or thousands fearing for their lives.
The rebels asked for the "no-fly zone" right at the beginning of the Gaddafi's use of the air force. To no avail.
The Arab League stubbornly denied the call for the no-fly zone effectively tying up the "Western Hands". For weeks we all heard about the possible ways to intervene, raging from the unilateral American action, through the no-fly zone imposed by the NATO forces, or French unilateral military involvement, to the continuous. and bringing no solution talks in the UN.
The divide has been widening instead of disappearing. China and Russia stand strongly against any form of the foreign intervention fearing that the created precedence would in the long run hurt their attempts to "pacify" the discontent in their countries.
In the meantime the US 5th Fleet "parked" in front of the Gaddafi's "windows", joined by some NATO forces - ready for any change of the policy to launch the attack...
And then on Saturday, March 12, The Arab League called for the NO-FLY ZONE to be imposed over Libya. One would think, that all the necessary conditions to actually impose the no-fly zone have been met. Unfortunately, it's not the case. In such a time sensitive situation the Emergency session of the Security Council should have been called for, right after the Arab League call on Saturday. OK, it was late in the day, so I would expect it to happen on Sunday... The Council finally assembled on Monday for a "closed door" session. It may take days, if not weeks to before the unanimous decision is achieved (although the draft resolution is promised today). But in a few weeks there may be no more need for any help to the rebels. There will be no rebels any more.
I stress it in all my posts: Gaddafi is a very experienced, and efficient Dictator. He has been playing a "cat and mouse" game with the West for decades. Counting on the division between the points of view in the World he measures his attacks to be effective against the rebels, depleting their morale, resources, and reducing the amount of the fit-to fight volunteers, the same time avoiding the "Srebrenica like massacre". The rebels slowly loose grip of the "liberated" territories. The government army forces the rebels out of their strongholds, and then loosens the grip with which it holds to the regained terrain just to let the opposition forces to commit more effort to fight for these sites over and over, "bleeding" slowly out, and loosing the momentum.
On Monday Gaddafi announced an offer of the general Amnesty to all the Rebel Fighters if they stop the uprising. No one has any doubts that this kind of offer wouldn't guarantee ANY impunity to the opposition forces, once the Dictator is back in power 100%. But, is the "revolutionary army" unified enough to dismiss this sort of tricks? People are hurt, tired, hungry and with no visible support from the outside. How long can they sustain the fight, having nothing but hope...?
Gaddafi sent his envoys to Brussels (the seat of the European Government and the NATO Headquarters), and Cairo to try to convince the World's powers that the "status quo" might be regained and it is in the interest of the West to let it happen. So far the NATO refused to talk to the Gaddafi's emissaries.
Yesterday, the Dictator met with the Ambassadors of China, Russia and India to farther reassure the representatives of these Super-Powers of the benefits of the survival of his regime.
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The No-Fly Zone was called for a long time ago. If imposed then, balance of the powers would have been shifted toward the Opposition Forces tremendously. It hasn't happen. What is the no-fly zone going to change, If imposed in a few days? A lot of damage has been done already. The fear factor established. The no-fly zone, by itself is completely useless against any helicopter attacks. Gaddafi has a number of attack helicopters, as well as Chinook transport helicopters. Some of them remember the times of close ties with Russia years ago, some have been bought in the recent years in violation of the arms embargo. Shame on those who profited from the arms deals with Gaddafi (Italy, Russia, China, Algeria...).
As brought to our attention by some reports, the loophole in the existing, imposed by the UN arms embargo on Gaddafi's regime, allows for arming the Revolutionary forces. I hope that this option is still on the table, and considered along the no-fly zone. However, we have the long and (to say the least) spotty history of arming the rebel forces in the countries of our interest. We all remember Nicaragua, Afghanistan, we can recall our initial involvement in Viet-Nam. Besides any moral issues, this sort of support is always risky, and often backfires.
Although there is a strong and decisive opposition of the countries in the region to any "foreign intervention" in the form of deployment of the army on the ground - the "no-fly zone" (as called for by the Arab league) also involves the air strikes neutralizing the air-defense capabilities of the Libyan governmental forces. This may, and will cause the protests of the Regional Powers (who perhaps do not realize what is involved in imposing such restrictions).
Any, even the most precise "surgical" air strikes will bring the casualties. We heard already, during any other conflict, the enemy's claims about the "civilian" casualties, even if no civilians were present in the target zones. We will hear Libya government's cries protesting against the "collateral civilian damage", no matter how careful the Western forces will be. We know already, that Libya has at least 13 anti-aircraft batteries. According to the military commentators they are all consisting of the aging, but formidable Russian equipment, which if well maintained may create a problem to even far superior technologically Western air assault. These batteries would have to be eliminated. However, by default, in the countries like Libya these batteries are located in the heavy populated areas...
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America invaded Iraq to prevent the Hussain regime from the use the (non existent) Weapons of Mass Destruction. It gave us the moral authority to invade and conquer Iraq. It gave us the moral authority to remove the Dictator from power, and execute him in Baghdad soon afterwords. However, Iraq didn't have ANY Weapons of Mass Destruction. the whole invasion was called for on false pretenses...
In the case of the Colonel Gaddafi we play with the 'kid gloves'. The moral reservation against the "any country interference in the affairs of another country" has been voiced over and over. But let's not forget that Gaddafi's regime by now destroyed only 2/3 of their stash of the MUSTARD GAS, having still more than 9 metric tons of this Weapon of Mass Destruction in it's arsenal. Since the beginning of the conflict, the concerned voices have been heard, warning about the danger of the Regime using the toxic agent against the opposition. For some reason, so far, this argument wasn't used in the talks about the Western reaction to the war atrocities attempted by the Dictator.
Maybe it's time to get reminded about this clear and present danger !
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