On Saturday (03.12) the Arab League, after days of deliberation came with the unprecedented call - asking the Western World to impose the no-fly zone over Libya. There is no question if Gaddafi's forces use an aerial bombardments against the Opposition. There is no question if the Gaddafi's forces get the upper hand because of their military superiority AND the Western Indecision...
And now we hear that the no-fly zone wouldn't fix anything, it wouldn't prevent the massacre, because in this war Gaddafi is not relying solely on the aerial attacks, but uses the ground forces and the artillery. Of course, no one can deny that the Regime uses all the weapons in their arsenal including the tanks, heavy artillery, special forces... not only the air force. It is out of the question, but if deprived from the air superiority, with his air force being smashed to smithereens, and without any anti-air batteries, Gaddafi wouldn't be so cocky and defiant.
We were already talking about arming the rebels' army and providing them with any necessary supply and support. They have already proved that given a chance they can fight like the regular army. It has been surprising, to say the least, that they could stand against the Regime so strongly.
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Our coalition Armies attacked Iraq twice. First time to slap Saddam's hands for being a naughty boy and invading our ally - Kuwait. The second time on a quest for WMD - which the CIA couldn't find, no matter how meticulously they looked for them.
And then the deposing of the Dictator wasn't a bad idea, even though all experts knew that the power vacuum in this split ethnically country would have completely unpredictable consequences. And we did it nevertheless - with a clear vision of the spoils (an access to the Iraq's oil and plenty of lucrative contracts for Halliburton and the like...). Now, 10 years later we leave the damaged goods behind us.
Libya is a different story. We already learned (or we simply can't learn), that this Spring of Nations in Arab countries of the Middle East works on the different ground then the "specter of the Muslim radicalism" with which we have been threatened constantly, for decades. Although some Republicans in our country do not believe in it - the EVOLUTION is what creates changes in the world. This Evolution applies not only to the DNA of the particular species, but also, and maybe, above all, to the social DNA of the developing socially nations.
And so, the unruly, socially undeveloped, and for 42 years deprived from any real political life, Libya creates the National Council in the first 10 days of the uprising. For some reason, the Opposition is wise enough to use the people with the experience (they gained it in the Gaddafi's regime, yes, but they chose the opposition), who could fill the post-Gaddafi vacuum.
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I have been writing about this particular aspect of the Revolutions sweeping the Middle East from the very beginning. Nothing is as previously predicted. Nothing is the way it has been happening for decades. No single Anti-American demonstration, no flag burning. Quite a contrary, the reverence for the democratic principles for which the USA stands, and hope for help.
I couldn't believe how long it took to make a stand which allowed the Egyptian Army to end this Mubarak farce. Fortunately for the US, the events happened so fast, that even our indecision didn't ruin it. And now we can count on the fruitful cooperation with the democratic Egypt - probably the same way as previously on the ties with the Dictator. The same with Tunisia.
However in the case of Libya the story gets a bit more complicated. Gaddafi has never been a democratic Leader. In the beginning he lead the popular revolution, but soon enough he used the "Green Book" to muzzle any democratic forces in the country and successfully rid Libya of any subversive element...
Apparently not all of them have been lost, beaten, tortured, imprisoned, killed. Sweeping the Middle East (and not only), the wind of the modern, democratic ideas, found a fertile ground even under the repressive hand of the flamboyant buffoon - Dictator Colonel Gaddafi.
Unfortunately Gaddafi knows very well that before the Europe, UN, or even America can organize themselves to act against him, the rebellion will be OVER. He is very well aware of the powers he has, and how destructive can be the blows of his war machine. He has had enough time in his 34 years of defiance (before 2003 when he denounced terrorism for the benefit of the Western World) to know how long time is needed to debate on any important issues within the UN. Even knowing about his, not destroyed yet, 9 metric tons of the Mustard Gas doesn't speed up the process. And I thought that WMD is a term which always galvanizes the World's Leaders...
We all have to keep in mind that as fast as this revolution was ignited, that fast Gaddafi can defeat the Opposition forces ad bring back "the law and order", if he is left with a sufficient time to do so, and not stopped immediately.
When we lose time on pointless arguments, and despite the urgent calls of the Rebels and the Arab League, sit on our hands - we deliver the message to the World and in particular to the People of the Arab countries. And this is not the message we would like to send... In the meantime Gaddafi uses his air force as much as he can, decimating the rebels, systematically and on schedule. Schedule which he already knows by heart - The UN schedule.
A brilliant correspondent in Libya, Hoda Abdel-Hamid in her tweet on Wednesday afternoon asked: "The world needs to protect Benghazi if it really wants stability... or is it too uncomfortable to let go of #Libya's oil?".
Why do we have to ask this question. We, in Western World value greatly the principles of democracy. We have fought and have died for them...
And of course it helps when the object of our help and support provides us with a strong incentives to do so. But even in this context do not dismiss Libya all along. When/if the Opposition forces win and the New Libya (the one with 3 colored flag) revises their commercial obligations - I am pretty sure, that those who help them now wouldn't have to worry for the outcome of these revisions...
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