15th day - while both, supporters of the protest and it's foes were observing what they thought was a lack of the momentum - Tuesday brought to the Tahrir Square and many other places across the country completely unprecedented amount of the peaceful demonstrators. The momentum returned to the movement.
At least three important developments were responsible for such a surprising, for many, outcome. First was the Vice President Suleiman's yesterday statement that "Egypt simply isn’t ready for democracy" which infuriated not only the Egyptian people but changed as well the attitude of the US government toward this 'hand-picked' possible successor of the current dictator. The second reason was the morning announcement of a incremental successions and promise of parliamentary, and constitutional changes (again without any time-line, nor mentioning giving in to the main demand - ousting the President Mubarak). At the same time Suleiman made a statement condemning the 'demeaning, and belittling of Egypt' by the protesters, and warning that the government can't put up with these protests for much longer. It was considered, and rightfully so, as a direct threat against the participants of the uprising.
The third factor and probably the most emotionally important was a release from detention of the Google executive Wael Ghonim, who was missing since January 27. Despite that he was arrested and held by the state security, the government was denying that fact, lying shamelessly to all who were looking for him. Ghonim (a Google executive on the Middle East), was the author of a Facebook page which has been credited with sparking a public outcry over police torture and helping inspire the protests demanding an end to President Hosni Mubarak's 30 year rule. He was released yesterday immediately acquiring (despite his humble protests) status of a hero and an idol of the crowd. He has joined the protesters on Tahrir Sq. and spoke to them several times warming them up and preparing for the long process ahead.
So far the protest, however well organized and persistent, has been 'leaderless'. The Mubarak's regime with it's apparatus of repressions did a "really good job" dismantling, and/or imprisoning any organized opposition during the 30 years of the "marshal law". Only the Muslim Brotherhood is still intact - but doesn't constitute the representation neither the protesters (they joined the movement when it was already fully fledged), nor the nation, since their popularity is estimated at 25% only.
We were discussing the influence of the other figures, like Mohamed ElBaradei, or Amir Mousa, who could take part in forging the Transitional Government or become the leaders of newly formed organizations or parties. But this movement, this uprising belongs to the disenfranchised young people. They are in need of the young leaders - people who they could relate to. They need leaders, who could understand the issues associated not with the past, but the FUTURE. Certainly the young and passionate Wael Ghonim is such a person. Educated, successful, passionate... and with a HERO status.
Most of the social uprisings, if not joined by the people from all layers of the society fail sooner or later. It is crucial that this movement is built not only of the educated youth, but also workers and other groups of the society. Until today it wasn't the case. However on the 15th day of the uprising the workers in Suez joined the protest organizing a strike - in support of the protest in Cairo - also demanding the creation of the Free Workers Unions. What we take for granted in America, Egypt has never had. Their time is NOW.
So far VP Suleiman and all other members of the appointed recently cabinet tried to shift the blame for the Egyptian financial losses caused by the uprising directly to the protesters, even though the government (not the protesters) disrupted the Internet, the government (not the protesters) stopped the railroad, and prevented the airports from the normal functioning, the government (not the protesters) closed the stock exchange. The only way this blame can't be shifted and reassigned to the protesters is if/when the workers join the fight stopping the industry from normal functioning.
Unfortunately, the only way to convince the powerful business in Egypt, that the only way to proceed farther is to get rid of the current Mubarak's government, is through affecting their pocket book. Otherwise Egyptian Business doesn't have any stimuli to share the sentiment with the people.
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While the government plays a 'cat and mouse' game promising the reforms and insisting on the constitutional need of the President Mubarak to lead the changes, the street, tired of the prolonged game and lies started demanding a broader changes. During the last 30 years the Constitution of Egypt has been amended several times creating a very convenient to the Dictator situation. In order to change and amend the Constitution the President has to instigate it. It's a political farce. It's a farce which was "bought" without questioning by the European and US governments.
However the crowd on the street has much easier solution. Instead amending the completely inadequate and compromised document - the People insist on replacing it by the new one - along with replacing all the members of the shamed and disgraced government.
Mubarak's plan is almost diabolical:
His right hand Suleiman (chief-spy and renderer) will lead the 'changes' while he (Mubarak) waits until the September elections in his "throne". By the time the elections are called for, the whole opposition is already caught and removed from the political theater.
According to the current constitution (compromised by the Dictator) when the President is removed - the Speaker of the Parliament leads the Interim government (not a VP), no changes to the constitution are allowed, and the elections are called for within 2 months. Of course there is no organized opposition ready to take part in such elections. The only force sufficiently organized and ready now is the Muslim Brotherhood. This scenario acts like a scarecrow to all the observing Western powers. As leaked out - Suleiman deliberately demonized the Muslim Brotherhood to assure these sentiments..
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It looks like what people are asking for right now makes the most sense - removing the corrupted government along with the (not working) constitution and start from scratch - establishing the Interim Government with the support of the Army, giving the people time to organize themselves in the atmosphere free of fear of repressions. It wouldn't take long, but it might be a year before they are really prepared for implementing all the principles of the democratic process - for the first time in their entire lives. They deserve the chance.
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