Unrest in Egypt - or is it a REVOLUTION?

It's already 5 days since the Egyptian citizens decided to start unprecedented in scale in the Arab countries street protest.  Tens of thousands poured to the streets to voice their disappointment with the existing conditions in the country, both political and economical.  What has been brewing under the surface of the society for decades, inspired by the successful demonstration of the 'people's voice'  in Tunisia, finally broke out in Egypt as well.  
There is a lot of speculations on the seriousness of these events to the World's stability, and to the particular US interests, but however extremely important they are in this context - they are The Most Crucial events of the lifetime to the roughly 80 Million Egyptians.  Almost 50% of the Egyptian population is not older that 30 years old.  These people were born and raised while the government was run by President Mubarak.  Beside occasional, now and then, not well organized unrest - this is the biggest and the most serious in the 30 years of Mubarak presidency.

There are a lot grievances against the regime, beginning from the sky rocketing unemployment (officially, misleadingly reported as being under 10%, but as assessed by some pundits and correspondents, going as high as a two-fold or more), through the lack of legal opposition and fixed presidential elections, and also menacing corruption of the government as well as the growing control and suppression of all the democratic aspects of life (I wrote about it in my previous post).  The Police brutality, unlawful detentions, and torture have been reported throughout Egypt for a long time. 

It all started with a peaceful demonstrations, quite disorganized, but completely  without any extreme religious undertone.  The Muslim Brotherhood (for decades banned in Egypt, and demonized by the Western media as well as Egyptian government to use as a scarecrow at the occasions like the current one) didn't join the protest in the beginning.  It was a "frustration of a lower middle class" and educated part of the society (students) what drove the protest to the streets.  The crowd shouted democratic slogans demanding the extensive social and economical reforms.  Known from a very brutal, and bloody way of responding to any unrest Riot Police didn't act at the beginning in any capacity exceeding the blocking the access to the government offices.  It all changed when in Suez the demonstration turned violent.  The Riot Police unleashed all the fury of the 'apparatus' using the water canons, shields and long batons, as well as shooting the rubber bullets in the crowd and shelling the concussion grenades as well as the tear gas.  Many parts of the cities like Cairo or Alexandria were so saturated with the tear gas that breathing on the streets became very difficult, as reported by Ben Wedeman (CNN), Nick Robertson (CNN) or Richard Engel (NBC)
The intensification of the crisis by the police changed dramatically also the position of the demonstrating youth.  Slogans became more heated and from that time on demanding the removal of the Dictator, and forming the new, real, representative government.   
All the social media and the Internet were shut down.  The cell phone service was shut down as well.  All communication in Egypt was blocked out.  Social media which were so crucial to the exchange of the information throughout the region, and what is in a sense responsible for encouragement of the people to attempt any protest (after what took place in Tunisia) were blocked by the government.  However almost immediately something remarkable happened.  Suddenly there were available multiple international telephone numbers which could have been used for sending tweets using the proxy, in France or in America.  The word was out again.
The violence of the police met it's match on the side of the protesters.  Serious clashes continued throughout Thursday and Friday (which is religious holiday in the Muslim countries).  Especially heavy was the confrontation in Alexandria.  Once called the Pearl of the Mediterranean, established by the Alexander The Great, city had a cosmopolitan society.  At the beginning of the XX century it's Italian, French, Greek, Arab and Jewish quarters were very well developed and could function interweaving and interacting, benefiting from the cultural variety of the inhabitants.  The phenomenon inspired many, like Lawrence Durell - "The Alexandria Quartet".  
In the last couple of days, many of the police precincts in Alexandria, as well numerous police cars and trucks have been torched and looted.  Such was also the fate of many police precincts in Cairo and across the country.  While the violent confrontations with the police were intensified the army entered the theater.  The Army has been considered by all the society as a noble and just organization.  It's said that almost every family in Egypt has somebody in the Military.  No surprise that when the tanks and the armored personnel carriers entered the streets of the cities they were met with a smile and greetings from the demonstrating and still fighting with the police people.  Army didn't openly take any side, neither the government, nor the people.  Well known were the instances when it became "calming" force.
By the end of Friday the police was completely absent from the streets.  The only remaining posts were held at the Party Headquarters in Cairo.  Tweets also reported that this was a place where the police used also snipers using the live ammunition.  Several people have been shot dead or wounded while at the nearby Tahrir Square "comradeship" and (as tweeted) "love fest" between soldiers and the protesting people continued.

President Mubarak waited until Friday night with the speech to the nation.  When he finally decided to take a stand during a life broadcast, the viewers learned nothing new.  What they heard many times before, was again repeated: that the changes to improve the life and freedoms will be made and the whole government (except the President) is relieved from their duties.  The same time the new Premier was appointed who would form the new government.  However, people have already expressed their wishes.  And they didn't include an option of Mubarak staying in power.  What's more, the newly appointed Premier (Ahmed Shafik - former commander of Air Force) was considered by the street - just another stooge.  
The American response was measured to say the least.  Our President had to "tread very carefully".  Although the issue of the civil liberties of the Egyptian citizens is very vital, Egypt being one of the most important US allies in the region can not be offended, or pushed too hard.  Egypt in the form as it is right now is a force aiding the US in the nuclear nonproliferation treaties, Israeli-Palestinian issues and many others.  But what we read from the Obama's speech was at least strong requirement of the NON-Violent solution to the rising problem.  (All interested parties know that $1.5 Billion of the US aid may be at stake). Looks like as a result, a couple of hours later the Internet and the social media were back on line.  Was it a coincidence?

Saturday brought suddenly creation of the office of the Vice President in the Egyptian government - an office abandoned by Mubarak since the very beginning of his Presidency, even though he himself was a Vice President while Sadat was assassinated and Sadat rose to the Presidential office also from being a Vice President during the Nasser's Presidency.  And now the revived office will be run by Omar Suleiman - a current head of Intelligence, also responsible for the Interior security.  
As one may learn from the sources quoted on Twitter:  Suleiman ran the rendition/torture program for the CIA (sources: Jane Mayer - "The dark side", Stephen Gray - "Ghostplane").  So, with the 'new' faces, everything stays the same.  I am sure that the people won't buy that.  "It's almost an insult to the intelligence of the people",  said Mohamed ElBaradei referring to the Mubarak's offer (Mohamed ElBaradei is an opposition leader, Nobel Peace Price winner, former head of International Atomic Energy Agency).

So far the Army was staying away from the fight.  With the complete absence of the police and increasing danger of looting, the Army became the only form of chaos prevention.  Unfortunately, since it has been deployed in a relatively small numbers there are a lot of neighborhoods in the cities where the citizens  didn't have a choice but organized Neighborhood Watch Units - armed in whatever they could put their hands on, from kitchen knives to the golf clubs.  It's reported that the Army along with the citizens of Cairo stand guard around the Egyptian Museum which was already affected by the angry mob.  Some of the expositions have been destroyed, although nothing has been stolen so far. 

As reported by Al Jezeera the looting has increased.  In many instances the perpetrators caught by the neighborhood watch units happened to have the police ID cards.  It appears that either the hated already police on their own decided to take advantage of the situation... or, it is the organized conspiracy of the government to create as much havoc and chaos as possible before ordering the Army to pacify the country, the same time showing off how good and caring the government is, especially compared to the alternative.     
It's reported that about 1000 of violent criminals escaped (or were purposely set loose) from the notorious high security prison in Fayoum (about 40 miles South from Cairo).  Unfortunately during the looting of the police precincts a significant number of firearms (often assault rifles) was also acquired by looters.  Such an outcome increases the danger in an absence of the law enforcement.  

It's estimated that so far the death toll is about 100, with a less severe casualties going into thousands.  The hospitals which are right now understaffed (since some personnel simply didn't show up to work) are overwhelmed by the number of injured.  The situation is worsened by the general understanding that the doctors "are" a part of the establishment, not "the people", what increases the grievances.

On Sunday, the new work week starts in Egypt.  What is it going to bring?  Now one of the most important questions remains unanswered: Is the Army going to support the people's movement and help creating the situation in which the Mubarak's regime is left with only one solution - resignation? - or it will blindly fulfills the orders coming from the government... and everything returns to the Status Quo?  

Another nagging question concerns the possible political direction shift dependent on who assumes the lead role in Egypt.  On one side the growing radicalization of the society is a strong factor to consider, on the other side lays the wisdom of the Egyptian People who repeatedly rejected in the Past all the attempts of the Muslim Brothers (although in Egyptian reality they are almost Main Stream) and other extreme options.  

Maybe it's time for the West (with the leadership of the USA) to take side of the People more decidedly - before the order to shoot is issued by the current regime and completely unnecessary (and unacceptable) loss of life increases.
I would say: the time is right about NOW...