Situation in the Middle East has been far from stable for many decades. On the surface, most of the countries laying on the Northern shore of Africa were in a state of a quiet 'trans' since the liberation from the colonial forces in the at the beginning of the XX century. Some of them were openly accepting coexistence with the West on the World's arena (like Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco) and some others like Libya had a long rooted problem with it (in the person of it's Leader Muammar al-Gaddafi - who apparently recently noticed some benefits in suckling the West's udder). Another one like Algeria (or it's white population) never came to terms with the separation from the all-powerful Mother Country - France. All together, with some extended periods of the very misleading inactivity and complacency always something was brewing under the surface.
When the country of Israel was established in 1948 with the expiration of the British Mandate (and accepted to the United Nations in 1949) the peace of the whole region became a very fragile, ephemeral "creature" requiring constant supervision from the UN and the West. Growing Anti-Israeli sentiments (partially because of the mishandling of the Palestinian issue by the Western Countries) became the nagging problem, resulting on a few occasions in a military conflicts between Israel and Egypt as well as other countries of the region, like Syria, Jordan, Lebanon.
I will dwell on this subject some other time.
I do not need to explain the importance of the North-African-Shore countries (and the whole Middle East) to the security and the prosperity of the neighboring with them across the Mediterranean European Countries. I do not need to explain the importance from the strategical and economical point of view all of these countries to to the whole World. They are on the edge of the still underdeveloped and presenting tremendous potential (as a source of the minerals we need and the fossil fuels we want) continent. Not even mentioning that this region is in too close proximity to the rich in oil fields of the Saudi Arabia and all the OPEC countries. And of course I do not need to remind anybody that the Suez Canal being in the hands of the Egyptians is a very strong determinant of the "growing friendship" between the West and the Arab Republic of Egypt.
In such an economical and political climate no expenses were spared by the Russians (and Chinese) to influence the countries of the region - to which they could claim the full success when after the Nasser revolution in Egypt a pro-Soviet government was established with Nasser as a head of state). Russian control of the Suez Canal ended with Anwar El Sadat taking office of the President of Egypt in 1970. His openly pro-Western sentiments killed him finally in 1981 when he was assassinated by the Islamic extremists during the parade celebrating the October 6 Victory in a '6 hour war' of 1973. However due to his pro-Western sentiments lots a things changed in Egypt. Inferior Russian technology was replaced by the Western one. Egypt started producing Italian and French cars, and other products. Hotels and restaurants were growing everywhere inviting the Western tourists and their Western mighty currency. Tightened by the President Nasser laws (as a reaction to the unruly and lose behavioral style in the King Farouk era - before the revolution), were loosened again to accommodate growing number of Westerners vacationing and also working in that country - some laws changed for more personal reasons (ie.: his daughter couldn't divorce her husband under the Islamic Law - the law was changed to accommodate her needs). Cairo became again a one of the Capitals of the World. The CIA is said to be responsible for building a 141 ft TV tower in the center of the Zamalek (an island on the Nile in Cairo - a place of the Opera House, the Western Embassys and the Corporate Offices...). American support in funds and equipment for the 1 Million strong Egyptian military began, as well as Western political support. What we have to remember is also the fact that all Egyptian Presidents were generals in the Egyptian Army before taking office of the President.
After assassination of the President Sadat, the Martial Law has been implemented. A few months later after some not important personnel changes Hosni Mubarak who was a Vice President since 1975 took office as President of Egypt. And the new era began. It was 1981.
Mubarak since the very beginning tried to juggle both Western influences and interest and the growing Radicalization and Fundamentalization of Egyptian Muslim population.
Egypt is a multi-religious country, has always been. About 13-15% of the population is Christian - called Coptic. Their religion as an organized Coptic Church is dated much earlier than any of the organized European Christian denominations. Until today Egypt has many working Coptic monasteries - places of the mass pilgrimages of their Christan part of the society. They still believe in the same form of a Christan faith, a bit different form any denominations in Europe. Their language of faith is also Coptic. Their alphabet is based on the Greek, but has a few symbols more and a different vocabulary. Some of the aforementioned monasteries were established on the edge of the Eastern Desert as early as the 4-th Century (St. Paul's and St. Anthony's). They have churches in the Egyptian cities, not as numerous as mosques, but many. Relatively huge part of Coptic population lives in the part of the country called Middle Egypt, 2-3 hundred miles south of Cairo. The remaining 85-87% of the Egyptian society is Muslim.
I spent 2 years in Egypt in the Eighties. I was a photographer of one of the Archaeological Centers who had to travel to sometimes very remote locations in Egypt to cover the archaeological excavations. I traveled extensively (also to the Sudan), getting to know the country, it's history, it's people, their customs. People who were in most cases extremely poor (in the European standards), but very friendly and well spirited at the same time. It was a common thing in Cairo to pass a person (or a family) sitting on a grass covered median on one of the streets, eating their lunch and to be stopped by one of them and offered to share the food with them. At that time - in the eighties - they weren't indoctrinated yet by the extreme Muslim organizations for whom the only way of encounter the infidels is with the knife or a gun in their hands.
It was also the beginning of the Mubarak era. The hopes of the nation were high.
In a certain way all the Presidents of Egypt were extremely crucial in making Egypt what it is today. President Nasser (who was pro Soviet ruler) brought Egypt out of Feudal Era to the XX-the Century. He introduced obligatory basic education for all. An analphabetism in the Muslim countries is not that widely spread since every believer has to be able to read the Kur'an and does it often. Nevertheless the schools were secular, not religious 'madrassas'. Branches of the Universities were spreading like mushrooms to every community in the country. (The quality of the education is a completely different story). He also covered all Egyptians by the State run Health program. Doctors and hospitals were open for every one in need (again, the quality is a different animal). He introduced the "bread for all" program and fixed-price-stores for the poorer population - with heavily subsidized food.
Sadat brought the Western technology and close ties with the West. All the social programs were kept. Mubarak reinforced all previously introduced elements and at the time of growing Muslim extremism - had a difficult task to keep Egypt "afloat" - preventing it from sinking back to the Middle Ages (Established in 1928 - and banned in Egypt for decades - Muslim Brotherhood would gladly introduce the Muslim Sharia Law and cut all ties with the West).
Radicalization of the Muslim population is a rapidly progressing process. This process has been well fed by Saudi Arabia's Riyal ($1~4Riyal) - in the eighties Saudi Arabia introduced the scholarships on the Egyptian Universities for the female students just for wearing typical Muslim clothes - long robes with just the face uncovered or even covered by a veil. During my 2 years in Egypt between 1984 and 1986 I was flabbergasted by the rapid change on the streets of Cairo or Alexandria - from looking completely Western (short skirts, tight blouses, well groomed hair... to the streets filled with "burkas" or at least women with the scarfs draped around their faces preventing from showing even a tiniest glimpse of the skin).
A couple of years ago (2006) while I was on the excavations near Alexandria, I met a prominent Egyptian archaeologist who in a casual conversation with me bragged proudly about the previous night 'intervention' - prompted by the family he exorcised his brother, and by reading the Kur'an loudly to him, he expelled the Satan out of his brother's body... Just a reminder - it was 2006.
Saudi fed fundamental extremism was responsible for the unrest in Cairo in the early 1986 (police riots). One must understand that the regular Police is composed of young people from the very poor, and mostly rural parts of the country - it was (one may call) a "work for all" program. When I returned from the Sudan when it was over (the Police was shooting from the helicopters to the people demonstrating on the streets and burning the high end hotels in Giza) I was met at the airport by the well fed, and groomed, well armed and very bright and smart looking comandos - instead of the police and soldiers with mismatched boots and the rifles on a twine instead of a normal strap. This was the moment when I learned that the Egyptian Army, well hidden in the desert, is ready for any unrest the future may bring.
Since the late eighties Muslim extremists have been responsible for numerous and very often very bloody attacks on the Western tourists like the Luxor massacre on 1997, or later notorious shooting at the air-conditioned cars of the train going from Cairo to Luxor. There were kidnappings and assassinations, there were suicide bombings of the frequented by the Israelis and the Westerners - Red See resorts - all done by the extremists. Let's not forget about the 911 and the fact that some of the terrorists were from this country as well.
Mentioned beforehand Middle Egypt with it's big population of the Copts (Egyptian Christians) is very often off-limits for the Western tourists - for their own protection. Every now and then the massacres of Copts by the Muslim extremists occur. Unrest is on the rise. When I repeatedly traveled throughout the region (already after 911) my car was always followed (and preceded) by the armed Police units escorting me to the places on my itinerary, or at least to the highway (if I signed the waiver that I didn't want any protection).
Unfortunately, for the status quo - The Democracy in Egypt is non-existent. Along with the radicalization the general social and political awareness is on the rise. In order to keep the situation under control, the President Mubarak'(s regime rules heavy-handedly with the use of very efficient Secret Police and the Army. People disappear overnight (Amnesty International reports often). The People's voice would not necessarily bring any Western style Democracy to the country like that. This is what many pundits and scholars are afraid of - democratic electoral process may (or rather will) create in Egypt the religion based system like Saudi Arabia, or Kuwait, with the ongoing suppression of the human rights and women rights in particular.
No one had any doubts, all the Mubarak elections were fixed. It's not my claim - it transpired from the streets, talks with people... I was in Egypt when the last elections took place. It was a first time when the Regime allowed a number of the opposition candidates to run along the incumbent President. The opposition diluted their vote. Even in the UN observed elections Mubarak won in a land-slide. At the same time (before the elections) I talked to a young college graduate who worked as a clerk in a (...) car rental office in one of the (...) Hotels. He started the political reflections unprompted, in a way he felt an imperative to share his frustration with a stranger who could denounce his subversiveness to the authorities. He was furious talking of lack of freedoms the current regime was imposing on them. He was furious about the corruption of the government, he was furious about the particular interests of the Mubarak's family and that his sons are prepared to 'inherit the throne'. He was furious about the Martial Law which has never been revoked since the assassination of Sadat.
It's an era of the Internet, Cell Phones, Twitter, easy travel. It's an era of Information. No matter how GOOD the DICTATORSHIP is - and this one is just a normal - 'good-for-nothing' dictatorship - one can't stop people's quest for a social and economical reforms, for the transparency in the government, for what we take for granted - RIGHT TO FREE SPEECH, RIGHT TO ASSEMBLY...
Making sure that the Status Quo remains untouched is not going to be possible for long. It's kept in balance only by our financial support.
America stands in the World as a champion of the ideals, champion of the human rights, and political freedoms. And yet so often America supports the regimes which, although crucial for the stability in their region, crucial for the World's interests, the same time are repressive to their own people - that it makes me ask a question - is it worthy? - and where do we draw the line? - when does the social cost of such a "stability" outrun the benefits?
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On Tuesday, thousands of people took part in anti-government protests in Cairo and other cities, calling for an end to three decades of rule by President Hosni Mubarak. Three civilians and a police officer were killed in the unrest. Egypt's government said at least 85 police officers were injured. Some Tweets say about 2000 protesters being held by the Police overnight.
Tuesday's demonstrations in Cairo began peacefully, with police at first showing restraint. Several people said the clashes in Cairo began after protesters tried to take control of a water cannon truck. Such a coordinated wave of anti-government protests has not been seen in Egypt since Mubarak assumed power in 1981 after Islamists assassinated President Anwar Sadat.
The protests were promoted online by groups saying they speak for young Egyptians frustrated with the kind of poverty and oppression that triggered Tunisia's unrest. It escalated far beyond this point. Egyptians torched a police post in Suez early on Thursday in response to the killing of three demonstrators earlier in the week, a Reuters witness said. Tweets brought to our attention also the fact that the army cut the Suez off. There is no Internet, no cell phones, not Twitter working in Suez. Report of the Police brutality however ooze out.
Thousands of protesters also took to the streets in Yemen on Thursday to demand a change of government there. It raises the total of affected countries in that region to 3.
All of these regimes had a strong US support since they also were strong participants in the War on Terror (not always very effective like in the case of Yemeni regime).
Does it mean that the started in December 2010 Tunisian revolt (making Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, who had ruled the country for 23 years, and his family flee for exile) just ignited the "brush wild fires" which are going to spread through the region and change the geopolitical map of the World forever?
Maybe not at this moment of history. But it may be closer than we would like to realize.
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