Tuesday, February 01, 2011 - seventh day of the popular uprising in Egypt, brought a "march of millions" to Cairo, Alexandria and other places.
For some obscure reason no one gave a real estimate of the number of the protesters who gathered in Tahrir Sq today - but for a New Yorker, like myself, who have seen a million people at the Times Square during the New Year's celebration, and the same time knows the enormous size of the Tahrir Sq in the center of Cairo, it's pretty obvious that it is very well possible that the number of the demonstrators might have reached a promised by the organizers MILLION. It's not that it really matters - I believe no one can be mistaken about what the People really wanted - to oust the Dictator.
A peaceful and festive atmosphere, family style, if you will, reported from the Tahrir Sq. throughout the whole day was a strong indication that the protesting crowd was fully aware of it's power. Especially knowing that the army officially stated that they wouldn't open fire against the people under any circumstances. This festive air of anticipation was abruptly interrupted and subsequently ended by the Tv speech of the President Mubarak, which was broadly taken as an insult by the masses and considered a "sad joke".
It his speech Hosni Mubarak promised a host of concessions, including 'promise' not to run for the reelection (come on: he is 83 and of a frail health, and he seriously considered running for another 6 years long term as a President?!), as well as "talking" to the legislative body to limit the number of consecutive terms in the office. He 'promised' to 'prepare country for the democratic election, and even speed it up'. He pleaded to the people that as a public servant he served the country well, and he wants to die on the Egyptian soil. He 'promised' some economical reforms. He finally added the major assault - he insinuated that all the burning and looting was associated with the protesting crowd (!!!) and the perpetrators will be dealt with swiftly. Well, it might have had some bearing with the people a week ago, even on Friday, but today... The answer of the crowd was absolutely clear - they raised their shoes in the air, and shaking them in this act of defiance, shouted "LEAVE" (in Arab countries. raising a shoe at anybody or throwing a shoe at somebody is the most refined insult to that person - we still remember the shoes aimed at President Bush in Iraq in 2008).
President Mubarak (as I wrote in the previous posts) was at the beginning of his presidency (well into his second term) considered a savior of the nation. He brought the peace and stability. He brought the progress to the country. Better roads, more irrigation of the Sahara - during his reins the so called "desert road" between Cairo and Alexandria (about 140 miles) changed from surrounded by the sheer desert into a road traversing plantations producing dates and other nonexistent there plants.
Unfortunately, the remaining 18-20 years (the last 18-20 years) were the years of the repression, corrupt police and the corrupt lower and higher government. The inflation has been very high. In the recent years the prices of the food products raised 17% annually. In the country where a half of the common man's income is used to buy food, such an increase is a difference between being fed and being hungry.
In his speech President Hosni Mubarak proved that either he is completely senile, or completely detached from the REALITY. Either one of these assumptions is not a very convincing argument for backing him up any longer. Yes, he was a figure who was a warrant of the Peace Accord with the Israel, and respected by other members of the Arab World ruler, but without the support of his people, he is nothing but a dictator clinging to the escaping from his hands former glory.
America stands for the DEMOCRACY, JUSTICE FOR ALL, FREEDOM, and HUMAN RIGHTS. It happened many times that in a good faith we were trying to impose these Values on 'unsuspecting' anything people... It doesn't always work that easily. Some nations and societies have to grow by themselves to start craving for them. This is what is happening in Egypt right now. The society is mature enough to know that the democratic principles (which may or may not work in Iraq or Iran) are what is what they are craving for as a nation. The tenants of Democracy are the ideas already well digested by the society - right now they need to experience them.
And as I wrote before and many pundits and correspondents confirm, there is a little danger of the Islamic radicalization to the point of what happened in Iran after ousting on 11 February 1979 of the Shah of Iran Mohammad Rezā Pahlavi. It was a different era. It was a different nation (In Iran the Feudalism gave way to the Islamic Revolution). Egypt had it's revolution which brought it out from the Dark Ages. And since this revolution Egypt always rejected too extreme options. There is no reason not to anticipate a similar outcome now in the vacuum after Mubarak. I mentioned in my previous posts some radicalization which has already happened. Well paved and financed by our other ally - Saudi Arabia. But during all 7 days of the demonstrations this radical element even didn't surface. It was so far a secular protest. Let's keep it that way...
Mubarak's speech very soon brought the response from the White House. President Obama response was a very careful one, talking about "peaceful transition of power", insisting on the urgency of that transfer. Emphasizing the need of Egyptian people to chose by themselves... and that the foreign powers can't decide who would be a next ruler... But however positive President Obama's speech was, it fell short from what was hoped for and expected by the people on the Tahrir Square.
We all know that all Arab peoples are weary of the American influence and behind the scene politics. Egyptians are not the exception of this rule. They would probably reject anything what would be prearranged or helped to arrange by the US (as the current government is considered an American Puppet). Obama dispatched a former Ambassador Frank Wisner to Egypt to convey to the President Mubarak the 'necessity of the reforms and transfer of power'. However this behind the scene act instead of helping might have hurt our image even more, because it was just a proof for a common man that America is in bed with Mubarak, and since he didn't resign immediately - supports him. This was a moment in which (if played differently) the USA might have gained enormous credibility - just for making the US position stronger. Not putting anybody to fill the vacuum, but insisting on the only option for Mubarak - resigning immediately.
We were all hoped for the "Berlin Wall Moment" (when Reagan suggested bluntly: Mr. Gorbachev - tear down that wall...). Instead, maybe King Abdullah (Saudi Arabia) and Benjamin Netanyahu (Israel) sleep tonight better, but we lost the unprecedented moment to better our position among the peoples of the Middle East.
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The ruler of Tunisia escaped from the country a day after his 'patriotic' pledge to his people. Maybe the same will happen in case of Mubarak - contrary to his emotional desire to be buried in the Egyptian soil... What will happen in the even nearest future in Egypt is impossible to predict.
Probably the best scenario would be if the President Mubarak orders the army to shoot when the protesters march on the Presidential Palace on Friday - army refused to do so and in a swift and decisive Military Coup takes the power in the INTERIM period, before the democratic elections organized within month or two bring the legitimate Government (hopefully a coalition government having representation from all walks of life and all political shades).
It is a pure speculation, of course.
The reality maybe much less cheerful - sponsored by the government groups of thugs already tried to infiltrate the peaceful demonstrations and created havoc in Alexandria. Several looters captured by the army had the police ID on them. The current government uses all their well learned way of dishonest oppression and provocation to make sure that the common people fear the unknown more than the return of the old apparatus.
We observed such a situation and such dishonest government plots and provocations many times before - in the raising against the communist rules, countries of the former Soviet Block. The unrest in the countries like Poland, Hungary (to name only a couple) failed several times because of clever and well organized government provocations - making the people afraid of everything. Failed several times because there was not a strong Western support, or not too much of an alternative. They succeeded eventually, but much later when the people were desperate enough not to care anymore.
We do not know how much the Egyptians can tolerate from the current regime. We can't let them be tested again and again. It's time America stands by the Democratic Principles which we all respect so much. Nothing is ever certain in the situations like the one in Egypt at the moment. But we have to take the risk (not too big in my opinion at this moment) and demand from Mubarak to step down immediately, starting the democratic process in Egypt.
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