SLOGAN


I AM YET TO LEARN ABOUT THE KIND OF GOVERNMENT WHICH IS 'FOR THE PEOPLE'...

I LOVE THE SMELL OF MY SMART-PHONE IN THE MORNING. IT SMELLS LIKE... VICTORY !
- a tribute to the Social Media

A RIGHT WORD IS WORTH A THOUSAND PICTURES...

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Libya - the fall of Gaddafi on the horizon...

Libyan revolution is already a week old.  Hundreds of thousands of people protest on the streets of all the major cities of the country.  Although the protesters themselves are peaceful, they are met with the ruthless force of the apparatus.  In most of the countries of the region, army is the organization which 'de facto' is in charge of these countries with the regimes trusting and relying on it.  It's not the case in Libya.  The Colonel Gaddafi is closely guarded by the 'elite' forces, who directly answer to him and his sons.  They are loyal, well paid, and received the preferential treatment throughout the whole period after the Revolution.  This 'elite' forces are supported by a huge number of the mercenaries from the neighboring African countries.  Gaddafi always relied on the mercenary soldiers, since they are easier controlled (if paid) and would do anything they are asked for, including shooting to the unarmed demonstrators.
The army itself, although in general, loyal to the dictator, is not very likely to fulfill the orders to kill the compatriots. 

Since the very beginning of the uprising the foreign mercenaries used violence against the people on the streets without hesitation, shooting them with 'live' ammunition, clubbing them and chopping their limbs with the machetes.  Every day brought several new deaths, but didn't pacify the people, nor their will to overthrow the Dictator. 

As I mentioned in the previous post, the brutal, and unlawful response of the regime caused many Libyan diplomats to review their allegiance to Gaddafi, and as a result forced them to openly disassociate themselves from the current government. 

The violence against the protesters grew every day, culminating in (as reported in tweets - but not confirmed otherwise) usage of the helicopter gunships, and airplanes to shoot protesters with "increased efficiency" of the carnage.  The escalation of the repressions resulted in resignation of at least one army general, as well as refusal of carrying the orders by many soldiers and fighter planes pilots.  Yesterday 2 fighter planes defected to Malta.  The pilots asked for asylum and confessed that they were ordered to bomb and shoot the protesters in Banghazi where the opposition to the regime was the strongest.  Other pilots who were allegedly ordered bombing the oil fields in the East of the country also refused to do so and destroyed the planes, bailing out of them on the parachutes. 

After a week of fighting the Eastern city of Benghazi and the surrounding areas have been "liberated" by the revolutionary forces.  The huge contingent of the army in this Mediterranean city also defected to the "people's" side.  The provisional government has been formed immediately, and according to the reporting Libyans, the communal services started working better than under the rules of the Dictator.  The same was said about the stability of the electric power supply (even thought the management of the power plant was ordered by the regime to cut off the power).

Yesterday afternoon the Colonel Muammar al-Gaddafi showed himself on the state TV "performing" one of his endless and partially incoherent speeches.  Contrary to previous speculations about him parting the country and escaping to Venezuela, he spoke from the Tripoli fortified compound which was bombed by the American airplanes in 1986, and which he kept unchanged since then as a proof of the defiance.  He still considers himself as a great statesman, the leader of never ending revolution.  He considers himself to be the man who is supposed to unify the countries of Africa in one powerful force.  He had a dream (and tried it years ago, failing) to merge Tunisia and Egypt with Libya. 
In the yesterday's speech, lasting nearly an hour he presented himself as the only person, the only force who can hold the country together.  He exclaimed: Muammar Gaddafi is the GLORY.  He claimed that hes was still loved by the whole population, not only for what he did for the Revolution, but for what he still does for the people.  He reminded all the glorious events in the history of the country, like liberation from the Italian occupation, defying the USA and all Western countries, in short taking credit for all things which ever happened. 
He accused, of course, the Western powers, as well as some Arab countries (like Qathar) for inciting the unrest.  He accused the youth to be misguided, heavily drugged and paid by the enemies to destroy the country which has been so good for them.
At last, he read from The Green Book (Revolutionary Laws formed and collected by him in the days of Revolution) and quoted that all the transgressions qualify to be punished by execution. Let it be noted that Libya has never had a Constitution.  Gaddafi and his Green Book have been the source of the SUPREME LAW.
He ended by strongly threatening all who would not cease the revolt and go home.  He called at the same time the people to "raise against the perpetrators" of the treason and form the popular committees to "clean" the streets from the "destroyers" of the Libyan way of life... 

Apparently defiant, and apparently threatening with the escalation of the carnage, Libyan leader still has a completely baseless conviction that this uprising is something which "will pass soon, and everything will return to the 'status quo'".  After 42 years in power he simply refuses to understand that the world has changed.  He refuses to acknowledge that because of many factors (and the spread of the information and the social media is only one of them), self awareness of the people, and their social education changed to the extent, that once ignited such an uprising can produce only one effect - toppling of the old, merciless and hated regime.

By Wednesday, the rebel forces were in the possession of more than 1/3 of the country (according to the most conservative reports).  In the liberated parts of the country the rebels kept finding the execution sites with the big number of killed civilians and the army personnel, with their hands tied at their backs.
By the end of the day the revolutionaries had in their possession even the Eastern city of Misratah.  The army from the liberated Benghazi released a statement to the Gaddafi's tribe, making obvious that the problem is only associated with the Colonel, not his tribe - avoiding the possibility of the tribal war. 

It's suspected that the only remaining strongholds of the Dictator is the city of Tripoli itself.  The sporadic reports from the city reveal an extraordinary level of fear among the people who are still subjected to the atrocities of the regime. 
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Libya, being an oil producing country, employed a huge number of the foreign work force.  There have been a huge number of American personnel (diplomatic and commercial) working there.  Many other countries, like Egypt, Tunisia, Turkey and others had their citizens in the big numbers working there for years.  An unrest like we observe in Libya, and the brutal response of the regime, create situation in which the logistics of the evacuation are enormous.  All the involved counties tried to recover their citizens by the airplanes, but it proved to be a very difficult, or partially impossible because of the state of disrepair of the airports and/or inefficiency of the Libyan air control.  Other countries (including the USA) sent ferries to Tripoli to save their citizens.  However the high sea  prevented the departure of these ships.

After more than a week of the NO STATEMENT from the US government, Barack Obama spoke on Wednesday summarizing what the whole world already stated:
(...) The violence in Libya is "outrageous." (...) This violence must stop. (...) East and West, voices are being raised together against oppression. (...) The U.N. is watching. (...) Let me be clear: the change that is being driven is by the people of the region. (...) The United States will continue to stand up for freedom.

However, beside the above, generic "condemnation" of the regime, Obama revealed the obvious threat to the defiant Dictator. Without getting in any details he said:
"(...)Secretary Clinton and I have asked Bill Burns, our Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, to make several stops in Europe and the region to intensify our consultations with allies and partners about the situation in Libya.
I’ve also asked Secretary Clinton to travel to Geneva on Monday, where a number of foreign ministers will convene for a session of the Human Rights Council. There she’ll hold consultations with her counterparts on events throughout the region and continue to ensure that we join with the international community to speak with one voice to the government and the people of Libya. (...)".

Beside the humanitarian crisis, and the "genocide" (as the atrocities were named by some politicians), the prolonged situation in which the regime behaves completely unpredictably, creates a very difficult and explosive situation.  The possibility of blowing up of the oil fields, and the oil pipe line, which may be carried out by the regime in a desperate gesture of a vindictive spitefulness would be a dangerous blow to the stability of the oil supply to Europe as well as major factor pushing even higher the prices of the crude oil on the world's markets. 

However, thanks to the unified action of the people of Libya, and the Western stand, It seams that the Libyan revolution may have a chance to be ended in the nearest future, hopefully without any additional loss of the human life.
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Hopefully Libya will soon join Tunisia and Egypt in their efforts to create the NEW, democratic political structures which will give the base to the full and meaningful lives of their people.

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