While the 11th day of the Egyptian Revolution, the day which was supposed to be a "Day of Departure" (for the Dictator) is ended, the situation (although peaceful, and almost festive today) is far from the solution.
Who would be the real candidate to lead this proud nation to the democratic future? We know about Mohamed ElBaradei who is a very respected figure, who opposed the current regime for years, but stayed away from the political stage in Egypt - he lived most of his life abroad, he was a Head of the International Atomic Energy Agency. During the last few years he was demonized by the official Egyptian media in a retaliation for his personal stand against the regime. Although the most of the population understands the lack of truth in the media attacks against him, some fall victim of such lies and believe in them.
There is also the Muslim Brotherhood, who are very well organized and right now probably almost Main Stream, not the radical organization we remember from 2 decades ago. They are accused to be linked to the AL-QAEDA, however by now (as stated in The New york Times 02.04.2011) “The Brotherhood hates Al Qaeda, and Al Qaeda hates the Brotherhood,” said Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center in Qatar. They were banned as an organization for quite some time but their members (who in majority are lawyers, professionals, etc) found their way to the Egyptian parliamentary system and kept many position within it until the last parliamentary elections which they boycotted in an act of defiance of the government policy. They joined the uprising when it was already in motion being afraid that if singled out by the governmental forces they might have been the reason for crushing the protest under the banner of 'not letting the extreme forces taking over the country'. They would like to take part in the coalition government.
There is a third power who is almost unnoticed in the most of the Western estimates and predictions: Amir Mousa - the current head of the Arab League. He was so popular as a Foreign Minister of Egypt, that the people came out with the glorifying him song, which says: "Mousa, Mousa we love you...". No one, even 'in the field' considered him as a player in this post-Mubarak reality, but he showed up on Tahrir Sq. today, talked to people, without making any official stand, and suddenly his Facebook page in which he introduced himself as a Man Backed Up By The Egyptian Youth - within a day gathered 300,000 hits. Again, the power of the Social Networking. Maybe Mr. Mousa is going to be THAT person, at least to lead the Interim government. in the beginning of the new, democratic future ahead.
It's all but speculation, for now...
----
The violence against the members of the media proliferated during the last couple days of the uprising to the point that almost no one media center can operate using the cameras and the reporters in the field. Several TV teams were targeted purposely, some others happen to be 'in the wrong place in the wrong time' (or they were, where they were supposed to be being reporters). AlJazeera office was invaded and totally vandalized, while personnel interrogated on the spot and detained. Polish TV team was arrested on their way to the Tahrir Sq. Part of the team released after some time, the rest detained in the undisclosed location. Other affected by this hunt were a Guardian's reporter (beaten and arrested), The BBC, New York Times, Associated Press, CNN and Washington Post all reported that foreign journalists' equipment was taken or that journalists were being arrested and detained. The Washington Post reported their Cairo bureau chief Leila Fadel had been arrested, along with at least one dozen other journalists. An Egyptian photo-reporter was shot and killed by the security forces, while photographing the protests.
This is a mass and well organized action by the the elements of the Mubarak's administration. It was condemned by the the American and most of the European governments. At the same time all the promises of the current regime (even as they come out in the interviews as understanding, penitent, and reformed) are good for nothing.
----
A few days ago, when the police suddenly disappeared from the streets the Tourist Police (as reported) also disappeared leaving many extremely important archaeological places completely unprotected. What happened to a few expositions in the Egyptian Museum at the beginning of the protest happened outside of Cairo as well. But not everywhere. In many places like West Bank in Luxor - the general director of the West Bank, Mr. Mustafa Waziri, was himself present at all times (organizing guards during the nights on the sites), taking control of the crossroad leading to the KV and checking every vehicle to secure the valley (reported by Prof. Dr. Laurent Bavay, Director of the Belgian mission in Qurna).. It wasn't an isolated incident.
It was, however, another indication that the government cares more about it's own survival, than about 5 thousand years of human heritage.
-----------
The next day has already began in Cairo. Thousands of protesters camped on the Tahrir Sq, trying to stick 'to their turf' in anticipation of a long and tedious battle ahead. They do not trust any government's reaction - other than President Mubarak leaving for good his post. They have heard and have seen not once that the government's promises (sometimes sounding very attractive) never materialized in anything even close to what they were demanding. Why should this time be different...
In the interviews both President and Vice-President called this protest - "a strike", emphasizing the tremendous monetary losses to the tourist industry, to the small business owners, to the shops... It's so easy to play this tune and to portray the protesters in a very negative and un-patriotic light. It's so easy to turn the loss of income of many in a protest disturbed city against the protesters, not the cause which brought the protesters to the streets. Like all the totalitarian regimes in the world, the Egyptian government skillfully plays this sentiments to it's advantage, trying to outlast the protesters. Now it's up to the people to show that they can see through this so predictable policy.
Hopefully some kind of Interim Government will be created to lead the nation through the process of forging a completely different future for Egypt.
SLOGAN
- a tribute to the Social Media
A RIGHT WORD IS WORTH A THOUSAND PICTURES...
PAGES
Saturday, February 5, 2011
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Egyptian Government on denial...
Omar Suleiman has just spoken. If one had no knowledge of the reality and the past, if one hasn't seen what was happening in Cairo and Alexandria in these 8 last days, one might have the impression, that "suddenly, the peace loving and democratic state was infiltrated by the subversive, and thinking only about the destruction conspiracy, and the surprised and unsuspected anything, honest government was only misunderstood even though they acted as well as they could to protect people...".
Yesterday the Premier of the Great Britain, David Cameron named the occurrences in Egypt as despicable and prompted the Mubarak's regime to a fast power transfer. He was backed by the Secretary general of the UN.
Vice President Suleiman's answer to this pressure and the carnage on the Tahrir Square yesterday is only a DENIAL and misrepresentation of the reality. We heard such reactions uttered by the representatives of the falling regimes everywhere in the world, Chile, Haiti, all regimes of the Communist Block. Facing the peoples wrath, they were all, in unison, denying what was already obvious for every observer in the world - their time was over.
Egyptian VP in the long interview (it's still on while I write these words) stated that the youth had a legitimate demands (which were met by the President) and after the demonstrations filled the streets, the government delegated the Army to uphold the order and prevent the clashes. The Army, according to Suleiman were doing a good job - it's not what we saw on the TV screens - the Army was buttoned up inside their personnel carriers and tanks and did NOTHING to prevent any unruly behavior.
VP repeated the same line as the President stated promising the democratic elections and the immediate talks with all the fractions of the opposition. The VP asked the protesters to disperse, since their demands were heard very loud and clear and they will be acted upon as soon as this uprising is over. However positive this angle might be - this time if given to the government (and I may safely put a wager on it) it will make the apparatus of repression even stronger.
Vice President Suleiman, when commenting the clashes escalated from the peaceful demonstrations blamed flatly the subversive elements agitated by the foreign influences and the satellite TV. He denied any responsibility for sending the countless crowd of the hired thugs to the streets to stir up the demonstrations and orchestrate the confrontation. As I wrote in the previous posts, some commentators claim that as much as a million of "thugs" might be on 'stand by' and used at will by the government to make their point heard louder and more organic. Demonstrators talked openly about the former elections which were rigged with use of this kind of thugs to steal the election boxes and disturb the people who decided to vote. This kind of policy, again, is very well known from every totalitarian country in the World, where the governmental upper hand is demonstrated in a policy of intimidation and repression.
Suleiman promised a swift and precise investigation to find all the people responsible for the failure of the police to insure the peaceful behavior and prevent the looting and the damage. He promised a fast and profound investigation to find and severely punish all who were responsible for all the damage and also all who were responsible (on both sides) for the fight and damage on Tahrir Sq. Unfortunately when the government throws into the same sack all participants, those who were peaceful and had to protect themselves and those hired thugs who were attacking the protesters - it's the same repression machine which we have seen over and over again throughout the years.
Very soon the government found 'a fall guy' (in this case many) freezing the assets and the passports of many previous members of the government (former Interior Minister, etc.). It's also a very often used trick used to channel, and stupefy the nation's reaction.
The people on the street do not trust the corrupted and compromised political figures in Egypt (Suleiman is not a new face, he's a long time crony of the President). They hear the same message in the words of the VP as I heard - the promise of the mass repressions - and back to normal - even if the elections take place - the government will have enough time to rig them up again, and get rid of the opposition.
ONLY THE INTERIM GOVERNMENT (whoever is in it) may now solve the problem and give the HOPE for the future.
Yesterday the Premier of the Great Britain, David Cameron named the occurrences in Egypt as despicable and prompted the Mubarak's regime to a fast power transfer. He was backed by the Secretary general of the UN.
Vice President Suleiman's answer to this pressure and the carnage on the Tahrir Square yesterday is only a DENIAL and misrepresentation of the reality. We heard such reactions uttered by the representatives of the falling regimes everywhere in the world, Chile, Haiti, all regimes of the Communist Block. Facing the peoples wrath, they were all, in unison, denying what was already obvious for every observer in the world - their time was over.
Egyptian VP in the long interview (it's still on while I write these words) stated that the youth had a legitimate demands (which were met by the President) and after the demonstrations filled the streets, the government delegated the Army to uphold the order and prevent the clashes. The Army, according to Suleiman were doing a good job - it's not what we saw on the TV screens - the Army was buttoned up inside their personnel carriers and tanks and did NOTHING to prevent any unruly behavior.
VP repeated the same line as the President stated promising the democratic elections and the immediate talks with all the fractions of the opposition. The VP asked the protesters to disperse, since their demands were heard very loud and clear and they will be acted upon as soon as this uprising is over. However positive this angle might be - this time if given to the government (and I may safely put a wager on it) it will make the apparatus of repression even stronger.
Vice President Suleiman, when commenting the clashes escalated from the peaceful demonstrations blamed flatly the subversive elements agitated by the foreign influences and the satellite TV. He denied any responsibility for sending the countless crowd of the hired thugs to the streets to stir up the demonstrations and orchestrate the confrontation. As I wrote in the previous posts, some commentators claim that as much as a million of "thugs" might be on 'stand by' and used at will by the government to make their point heard louder and more organic. Demonstrators talked openly about the former elections which were rigged with use of this kind of thugs to steal the election boxes and disturb the people who decided to vote. This kind of policy, again, is very well known from every totalitarian country in the World, where the governmental upper hand is demonstrated in a policy of intimidation and repression.
Suleiman promised a swift and precise investigation to find all the people responsible for the failure of the police to insure the peaceful behavior and prevent the looting and the damage. He promised a fast and profound investigation to find and severely punish all who were responsible for all the damage and also all who were responsible (on both sides) for the fight and damage on Tahrir Sq. Unfortunately when the government throws into the same sack all participants, those who were peaceful and had to protect themselves and those hired thugs who were attacking the protesters - it's the same repression machine which we have seen over and over again throughout the years.
Very soon the government found 'a fall guy' (in this case many) freezing the assets and the passports of many previous members of the government (former Interior Minister, etc.). It's also a very often used trick used to channel, and stupefy the nation's reaction.
The people on the street do not trust the corrupted and compromised political figures in Egypt (Suleiman is not a new face, he's a long time crony of the President). They hear the same message in the words of the VP as I heard - the promise of the mass repressions - and back to normal - even if the elections take place - the government will have enough time to rig them up again, and get rid of the opposition.
ONLY THE INTERIM GOVERNMENT (whoever is in it) may now solve the problem and give the HOPE for the future.
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
Egypt - army withdrawn... giving way to chaos...
The diabolical move by the current regime - removing the army from the street - giving a green light to complete chaos and street brawls propagated by the hired thugs..
It's the eight day of the upraising. After the Mubarak's offer of very limited changes was refused by the protesters - the regime invites the street fights. It's well known fact that the regime has a countless supply of thugs who could infiltrate any group of people and steer the street fights the way it's being propagated right now - as they did many times in the past. The army has the orders to stand down and simply observe, many took refuge inside of their personnel carriers and tanks.
The government chose a sneaky, but completely transparent to the observer way to try to discredit the anti-government movement, and portray them only as 'opposition to the stability'.
The violence of the clashes in the Tahrir Square is very typical during the demonstrations in the previous years, but between the protesters and the riot-police, not among the groups of civilians. A few hours earlier in Tahrir Square suddenly the protesters were charged by a huge group of the attackers on a horse back and camel back, riding through the group of protesters and flogging them left and right.
It also had a taste of the organized by the regime attack - there is a huge number of horse and camel mounted police, who just removed their uniforms and attacked the protesters.
It's also quite conveniently chosen moment for "pro-government" demonstration at the time when the most of the crowd dispersed and returned home in preparation for the Friday, organized action, which was supposed to lead the crowd toward the Presidential Palace.
As in the case of the looters in the previous days some of the "pro-government" attackers caught by the anti-government protesters were carrying the police ID cards. Another indication of the regime crack-down on the opposition.
It's a serious reality check for the Egyptian population. It puts the promises of the President Mubarak even less credible than before. It proves that his apparatus of oppression and spewing false propaganda is still in it's high gear. If Mubarak doesn't resign NOW, nothing is going to change in Egypt.
We can't let the democratic forces in Egypt being extinguished by the stubborn regime. It's time for the American leadership to set the terms for removal of the compromised ruler immediately.
It's the eight day of the upraising. After the Mubarak's offer of very limited changes was refused by the protesters - the regime invites the street fights. It's well known fact that the regime has a countless supply of thugs who could infiltrate any group of people and steer the street fights the way it's being propagated right now - as they did many times in the past. The army has the orders to stand down and simply observe, many took refuge inside of their personnel carriers and tanks.
The government chose a sneaky, but completely transparent to the observer way to try to discredit the anti-government movement, and portray them only as 'opposition to the stability'.
The violence of the clashes in the Tahrir Square is very typical during the demonstrations in the previous years, but between the protesters and the riot-police, not among the groups of civilians. A few hours earlier in Tahrir Square suddenly the protesters were charged by a huge group of the attackers on a horse back and camel back, riding through the group of protesters and flogging them left and right.
It also had a taste of the organized by the regime attack - there is a huge number of horse and camel mounted police, who just removed their uniforms and attacked the protesters.
It's also quite conveniently chosen moment for "pro-government" demonstration at the time when the most of the crowd dispersed and returned home in preparation for the Friday, organized action, which was supposed to lead the crowd toward the Presidential Palace.
As in the case of the looters in the previous days some of the "pro-government" attackers caught by the anti-government protesters were carrying the police ID cards. Another indication of the regime crack-down on the opposition.
It's a serious reality check for the Egyptian population. It puts the promises of the President Mubarak even less credible than before. It proves that his apparatus of oppression and spewing false propaganda is still in it's high gear. If Mubarak doesn't resign NOW, nothing is going to change in Egypt.
We can't let the democratic forces in Egypt being extinguished by the stubborn regime. It's time for the American leadership to set the terms for removal of the compromised ruler immediately.
EGYPT - point of NO RETURN...
Tuesday, February 01, 2011 - seventh day of the popular uprising in Egypt, brought a "march of millions" to Cairo, Alexandria and other places.
For some obscure reason no one gave a real estimate of the number of the protesters who gathered in Tahrir Sq today - but for a New Yorker, like myself, who have seen a million people at the Times Square during the New Year's celebration, and the same time knows the enormous size of the Tahrir Sq in the center of Cairo, it's pretty obvious that it is very well possible that the number of the demonstrators might have reached a promised by the organizers MILLION. It's not that it really matters - I believe no one can be mistaken about what the People really wanted - to oust the Dictator.
A peaceful and festive atmosphere, family style, if you will, reported from the Tahrir Sq. throughout the whole day was a strong indication that the protesting crowd was fully aware of it's power. Especially knowing that the army officially stated that they wouldn't open fire against the people under any circumstances. This festive air of anticipation was abruptly interrupted and subsequently ended by the Tv speech of the President Mubarak, which was broadly taken as an insult by the masses and considered a "sad joke".
It his speech Hosni Mubarak promised a host of concessions, including 'promise' not to run for the reelection (come on: he is 83 and of a frail health, and he seriously considered running for another 6 years long term as a President?!), as well as "talking" to the legislative body to limit the number of consecutive terms in the office. He 'promised' to 'prepare country for the democratic election, and even speed it up'. He pleaded to the people that as a public servant he served the country well, and he wants to die on the Egyptian soil. He 'promised' some economical reforms. He finally added the major assault - he insinuated that all the burning and looting was associated with the protesting crowd (!!!) and the perpetrators will be dealt with swiftly. Well, it might have had some bearing with the people a week ago, even on Friday, but today... The answer of the crowd was absolutely clear - they raised their shoes in the air, and shaking them in this act of defiance, shouted "LEAVE" (in Arab countries. raising a shoe at anybody or throwing a shoe at somebody is the most refined insult to that person - we still remember the shoes aimed at President Bush in Iraq in 2008).
President Mubarak (as I wrote in the previous posts) was at the beginning of his presidency (well into his second term) considered a savior of the nation. He brought the peace and stability. He brought the progress to the country. Better roads, more irrigation of the Sahara - during his reins the so called "desert road" between Cairo and Alexandria (about 140 miles) changed from surrounded by the sheer desert into a road traversing plantations producing dates and other nonexistent there plants.
Unfortunately, the remaining 18-20 years (the last 18-20 years) were the years of the repression, corrupt police and the corrupt lower and higher government. The inflation has been very high. In the recent years the prices of the food products raised 17% annually. In the country where a half of the common man's income is used to buy food, such an increase is a difference between being fed and being hungry.
In his speech President Hosni Mubarak proved that either he is completely senile, or completely detached from the REALITY. Either one of these assumptions is not a very convincing argument for backing him up any longer. Yes, he was a figure who was a warrant of the Peace Accord with the Israel, and respected by other members of the Arab World ruler, but without the support of his people, he is nothing but a dictator clinging to the escaping from his hands former glory.
America stands for the DEMOCRACY, JUSTICE FOR ALL, FREEDOM, and HUMAN RIGHTS. It happened many times that in a good faith we were trying to impose these Values on 'unsuspecting' anything people... It doesn't always work that easily. Some nations and societies have to grow by themselves to start craving for them. This is what is happening in Egypt right now. The society is mature enough to know that the democratic principles (which may or may not work in Iraq or Iran) are what is what they are craving for as a nation. The tenants of Democracy are the ideas already well digested by the society - right now they need to experience them.
And as I wrote before and many pundits and correspondents confirm, there is a little danger of the Islamic radicalization to the point of what happened in Iran after ousting on 11 February 1979 of the Shah of Iran Mohammad Rezā Pahlavi. It was a different era. It was a different nation (In Iran the Feudalism gave way to the Islamic Revolution). Egypt had it's revolution which brought it out from the Dark Ages. And since this revolution Egypt always rejected too extreme options. There is no reason not to anticipate a similar outcome now in the vacuum after Mubarak. I mentioned in my previous posts some radicalization which has already happened. Well paved and financed by our other ally - Saudi Arabia. But during all 7 days of the demonstrations this radical element even didn't surface. It was so far a secular protest. Let's keep it that way...
Mubarak's speech very soon brought the response from the White House. President Obama response was a very careful one, talking about "peaceful transition of power", insisting on the urgency of that transfer. Emphasizing the need of Egyptian people to chose by themselves... and that the foreign powers can't decide who would be a next ruler... But however positive President Obama's speech was, it fell short from what was hoped for and expected by the people on the Tahrir Square.
We all know that all Arab peoples are weary of the American influence and behind the scene politics. Egyptians are not the exception of this rule. They would probably reject anything what would be prearranged or helped to arrange by the US (as the current government is considered an American Puppet). Obama dispatched a former Ambassador Frank Wisner to Egypt to convey to the President Mubarak the 'necessity of the reforms and transfer of power'. However this behind the scene act instead of helping might have hurt our image even more, because it was just a proof for a common man that America is in bed with Mubarak, and since he didn't resign immediately - supports him. This was a moment in which (if played differently) the USA might have gained enormous credibility - just for making the US position stronger. Not putting anybody to fill the vacuum, but insisting on the only option for Mubarak - resigning immediately.
We were all hoped for the "Berlin Wall Moment" (when Reagan suggested bluntly: Mr. Gorbachev - tear down that wall...). Instead, maybe King Abdullah (Saudi Arabia) and Benjamin Netanyahu (Israel) sleep tonight better, but we lost the unprecedented moment to better our position among the peoples of the Middle East.
-----
The ruler of Tunisia escaped from the country a day after his 'patriotic' pledge to his people. Maybe the same will happen in case of Mubarak - contrary to his emotional desire to be buried in the Egyptian soil... What will happen in the even nearest future in Egypt is impossible to predict.
Probably the best scenario would be if the President Mubarak orders the army to shoot when the protesters march on the Presidential Palace on Friday - army refused to do so and in a swift and decisive Military Coup takes the power in the INTERIM period, before the democratic elections organized within month or two bring the legitimate Government (hopefully a coalition government having representation from all walks of life and all political shades).
It is a pure speculation, of course.
The reality maybe much less cheerful - sponsored by the government groups of thugs already tried to infiltrate the peaceful demonstrations and created havoc in Alexandria. Several looters captured by the army had the police ID on them. The current government uses all their well learned way of dishonest oppression and provocation to make sure that the common people fear the unknown more than the return of the old apparatus.
We observed such a situation and such dishonest government plots and provocations many times before - in the raising against the communist rules, countries of the former Soviet Block. The unrest in the countries like Poland, Hungary (to name only a couple) failed several times because of clever and well organized government provocations - making the people afraid of everything. Failed several times because there was not a strong Western support, or not too much of an alternative. They succeeded eventually, but much later when the people were desperate enough not to care anymore.
We do not know how much the Egyptians can tolerate from the current regime. We can't let them be tested again and again. It's time America stands by the Democratic Principles which we all respect so much. Nothing is ever certain in the situations like the one in Egypt at the moment. But we have to take the risk (not too big in my opinion at this moment) and demand from Mubarak to step down immediately, starting the democratic process in Egypt.
For some obscure reason no one gave a real estimate of the number of the protesters who gathered in Tahrir Sq today - but for a New Yorker, like myself, who have seen a million people at the Times Square during the New Year's celebration, and the same time knows the enormous size of the Tahrir Sq in the center of Cairo, it's pretty obvious that it is very well possible that the number of the demonstrators might have reached a promised by the organizers MILLION. It's not that it really matters - I believe no one can be mistaken about what the People really wanted - to oust the Dictator.
A peaceful and festive atmosphere, family style, if you will, reported from the Tahrir Sq. throughout the whole day was a strong indication that the protesting crowd was fully aware of it's power. Especially knowing that the army officially stated that they wouldn't open fire against the people under any circumstances. This festive air of anticipation was abruptly interrupted and subsequently ended by the Tv speech of the President Mubarak, which was broadly taken as an insult by the masses and considered a "sad joke".
It his speech Hosni Mubarak promised a host of concessions, including 'promise' not to run for the reelection (come on: he is 83 and of a frail health, and he seriously considered running for another 6 years long term as a President?!), as well as "talking" to the legislative body to limit the number of consecutive terms in the office. He 'promised' to 'prepare country for the democratic election, and even speed it up'. He pleaded to the people that as a public servant he served the country well, and he wants to die on the Egyptian soil. He 'promised' some economical reforms. He finally added the major assault - he insinuated that all the burning and looting was associated with the protesting crowd (!!!) and the perpetrators will be dealt with swiftly. Well, it might have had some bearing with the people a week ago, even on Friday, but today... The answer of the crowd was absolutely clear - they raised their shoes in the air, and shaking them in this act of defiance, shouted "LEAVE" (in Arab countries. raising a shoe at anybody or throwing a shoe at somebody is the most refined insult to that person - we still remember the shoes aimed at President Bush in Iraq in 2008).
President Mubarak (as I wrote in the previous posts) was at the beginning of his presidency (well into his second term) considered a savior of the nation. He brought the peace and stability. He brought the progress to the country. Better roads, more irrigation of the Sahara - during his reins the so called "desert road" between Cairo and Alexandria (about 140 miles) changed from surrounded by the sheer desert into a road traversing plantations producing dates and other nonexistent there plants.
Unfortunately, the remaining 18-20 years (the last 18-20 years) were the years of the repression, corrupt police and the corrupt lower and higher government. The inflation has been very high. In the recent years the prices of the food products raised 17% annually. In the country where a half of the common man's income is used to buy food, such an increase is a difference between being fed and being hungry.
In his speech President Hosni Mubarak proved that either he is completely senile, or completely detached from the REALITY. Either one of these assumptions is not a very convincing argument for backing him up any longer. Yes, he was a figure who was a warrant of the Peace Accord with the Israel, and respected by other members of the Arab World ruler, but without the support of his people, he is nothing but a dictator clinging to the escaping from his hands former glory.
America stands for the DEMOCRACY, JUSTICE FOR ALL, FREEDOM, and HUMAN RIGHTS. It happened many times that in a good faith we were trying to impose these Values on 'unsuspecting' anything people... It doesn't always work that easily. Some nations and societies have to grow by themselves to start craving for them. This is what is happening in Egypt right now. The society is mature enough to know that the democratic principles (which may or may not work in Iraq or Iran) are what is what they are craving for as a nation. The tenants of Democracy are the ideas already well digested by the society - right now they need to experience them.
And as I wrote before and many pundits and correspondents confirm, there is a little danger of the Islamic radicalization to the point of what happened in Iran after ousting on 11 February 1979 of the Shah of Iran Mohammad Rezā Pahlavi. It was a different era. It was a different nation (In Iran the Feudalism gave way to the Islamic Revolution). Egypt had it's revolution which brought it out from the Dark Ages. And since this revolution Egypt always rejected too extreme options. There is no reason not to anticipate a similar outcome now in the vacuum after Mubarak. I mentioned in my previous posts some radicalization which has already happened. Well paved and financed by our other ally - Saudi Arabia. But during all 7 days of the demonstrations this radical element even didn't surface. It was so far a secular protest. Let's keep it that way...
Mubarak's speech very soon brought the response from the White House. President Obama response was a very careful one, talking about "peaceful transition of power", insisting on the urgency of that transfer. Emphasizing the need of Egyptian people to chose by themselves... and that the foreign powers can't decide who would be a next ruler... But however positive President Obama's speech was, it fell short from what was hoped for and expected by the people on the Tahrir Square.
We all know that all Arab peoples are weary of the American influence and behind the scene politics. Egyptians are not the exception of this rule. They would probably reject anything what would be prearranged or helped to arrange by the US (as the current government is considered an American Puppet). Obama dispatched a former Ambassador Frank Wisner to Egypt to convey to the President Mubarak the 'necessity of the reforms and transfer of power'. However this behind the scene act instead of helping might have hurt our image even more, because it was just a proof for a common man that America is in bed with Mubarak, and since he didn't resign immediately - supports him. This was a moment in which (if played differently) the USA might have gained enormous credibility - just for making the US position stronger. Not putting anybody to fill the vacuum, but insisting on the only option for Mubarak - resigning immediately.
We were all hoped for the "Berlin Wall Moment" (when Reagan suggested bluntly: Mr. Gorbachev - tear down that wall...). Instead, maybe King Abdullah (Saudi Arabia) and Benjamin Netanyahu (Israel) sleep tonight better, but we lost the unprecedented moment to better our position among the peoples of the Middle East.
-----
The ruler of Tunisia escaped from the country a day after his 'patriotic' pledge to his people. Maybe the same will happen in case of Mubarak - contrary to his emotional desire to be buried in the Egyptian soil... What will happen in the even nearest future in Egypt is impossible to predict.
Probably the best scenario would be if the President Mubarak orders the army to shoot when the protesters march on the Presidential Palace on Friday - army refused to do so and in a swift and decisive Military Coup takes the power in the INTERIM period, before the democratic elections organized within month or two bring the legitimate Government (hopefully a coalition government having representation from all walks of life and all political shades).
It is a pure speculation, of course.
The reality maybe much less cheerful - sponsored by the government groups of thugs already tried to infiltrate the peaceful demonstrations and created havoc in Alexandria. Several looters captured by the army had the police ID on them. The current government uses all their well learned way of dishonest oppression and provocation to make sure that the common people fear the unknown more than the return of the old apparatus.
We observed such a situation and such dishonest government plots and provocations many times before - in the raising against the communist rules, countries of the former Soviet Block. The unrest in the countries like Poland, Hungary (to name only a couple) failed several times because of clever and well organized government provocations - making the people afraid of everything. Failed several times because there was not a strong Western support, or not too much of an alternative. They succeeded eventually, but much later when the people were desperate enough not to care anymore.
We do not know how much the Egyptians can tolerate from the current regime. We can't let them be tested again and again. It's time America stands by the Democratic Principles which we all respect so much. Nothing is ever certain in the situations like the one in Egypt at the moment. But we have to take the risk (not too big in my opinion at this moment) and demand from Mubarak to step down immediately, starting the democratic process in Egypt.
Sunday, January 30, 2011
Unrest in Egypt - or is it a REVOLUTION?
It's already 5 days since the Egyptian citizens decided to start unprecedented in scale in the Arab countries street protest. Tens of thousands poured to the streets to voice their disappointment with the existing conditions in the country, both political and economical. What has been brewing under the surface of the society for decades, inspired by the successful demonstration of the 'people's voice' in Tunisia, finally broke out in Egypt as well. There is a lot of speculations on the seriousness of these events to the World's stability, and to the particular US interests, but however extremely important they are in this context - they are The Most Crucial events of the lifetime to the roughly 80 Million Egyptians. Almost 50% of the Egyptian population is not older that 30 years old. These people were born and raised while the government was run by President Mubarak. Beside occasional, now and then, not well organized unrest - this is the biggest and the most serious in the 30 years of Mubarak presidency. There are a lot grievances against the regime, beginning from the sky rocketing unemployment (officially, misleadingly reported as being under 10%, but as assessed by some pundits and correspondents, going as high as a two-fold or more), through the lack of legal opposition and fixed presidential elections, and also menacing corruption of the government as well as the growing control and suppression of all the democratic aspects of life (I wrote about it in my previous post). The Police brutality, unlawful detentions, and torture have been reported throughout Egypt for a long time. It all started with a peaceful demonstrations, quite disorganized, but completely without any extreme religious undertone. The Muslim Brotherhood (for decades banned in Egypt, and demonized by the Western media as well as Egyptian government to use as a scarecrow at the occasions like the current one) didn't join the protest in the beginning. It was a "frustration of a lower middle class" and educated part of the society (students) what drove the protest to the streets. The crowd shouted democratic slogans demanding the extensive social and economical reforms. Known from a very brutal, and bloody way of responding to any unrest Riot Police didn't act at the beginning in any capacity exceeding the blocking the access to the government offices. It all changed when in Suez the demonstration turned violent. The Riot Police unleashed all the fury of the 'apparatus' using the water canons, shields and long batons, as well as shooting the rubber bullets in the crowd and shelling the concussion grenades as well as the tear gas. Many parts of the cities like Cairo or Alexandria were so saturated with the tear gas that breathing on the streets became very difficult, as reported by Ben Wedeman (CNN), Nick Robertson (CNN) or Richard Engel (NBC) The intensification of the crisis by the police changed dramatically also the position of the demonstrating youth. Slogans became more heated and from that time on demanding the removal of the Dictator, and forming the new, real, representative government. All the social media and the Internet were shut down. The cell phone service was shut down as well. All communication in Egypt was blocked out. Social media which were so crucial to the exchange of the information throughout the region, and what is in a sense responsible for encouragement of the people to attempt any protest (after what took place in Tunisia) were blocked by the government. However almost immediately something remarkable happened. Suddenly there were available multiple international telephone numbers which could have been used for sending tweets using the proxy, in France or in America. The word was out again. The violence of the police met it's match on the side of the protesters. Serious clashes continued throughout Thursday and Friday (which is religious holiday in the Muslim countries). Especially heavy was the confrontation in Alexandria. Once called the Pearl of the Mediterranean, established by the Alexander The Great, city had a cosmopolitan society. At the beginning of the XX century it's Italian, French, Greek, Arab and Jewish quarters were very well developed and could function interweaving and interacting, benefiting from the cultural variety of the inhabitants. The phenomenon inspired many, like Lawrence Durell - "The Alexandria Quartet". In the last couple of days, many of the police precincts in Alexandria, as well numerous police cars and trucks have been torched and looted. Such was also the fate of many police precincts in Cairo and across the country. While the violent confrontations with the police were intensified the army entered the theater. The Army has been considered by all the society as a noble and just organization. It's said that almost every family in Egypt has somebody in the Military. No surprise that when the tanks and the armored personnel carriers entered the streets of the cities they were met with a smile and greetings from the demonstrating and still fighting with the police people. Army didn't openly take any side, neither the government, nor the people. Well known were the instances when it became "calming" force. By the end of Friday the police was completely absent from the streets. The only remaining posts were held at the Party Headquarters in Cairo. Tweets also reported that this was a place where the police used also snipers using the live ammunition. Several people have been shot dead or wounded while at the nearby Tahrir Square "comradeship" and (as tweeted) "love fest" between soldiers and the protesting people continued. President Mubarak waited until Friday night with the speech to the nation. When he finally decided to take a stand during a life broadcast, the viewers learned nothing new. What they heard many times before, was again repeated: that the changes to improve the life and freedoms will be made and the whole government (except the President) is relieved from their duties. The same time the new Premier was appointed who would form the new government. However, people have already expressed their wishes. And they didn't include an option of Mubarak staying in power. What's more, the newly appointed Premier (Ahmed Shafik - former commander of Air Force) was considered by the street - just another stooge. The American response was measured to say the least. Our President had to "tread very carefully". Although the issue of the civil liberties of the Egyptian citizens is very vital, Egypt being one of the most important US allies in the region can not be offended, or pushed too hard. Egypt in the form as it is right now is a force aiding the US in the nuclear nonproliferation treaties, Israeli-Palestinian issues and many others. But what we read from the Obama's speech was at least strong requirement of the NON-Violent solution to the rising problem. (All interested parties know that $1.5 Billion of the US aid may be at stake). Looks like as a result, a couple of hours later the Internet and the social media were back on line. Was it a coincidence? Saturday brought suddenly creation of the office of the Vice President in the Egyptian government - an office abandoned by Mubarak since the very beginning of his Presidency, even though he himself was a Vice President while Sadat was assassinated and Sadat rose to the Presidential office also from being a Vice President during the Nasser's Presidency. And now the revived office will be run by Omar Suleiman - a current head of Intelligence, also responsible for the Interior security. As one may learn from the sources quoted on Twitter: Suleiman ran the rendition/torture program for the CIA (sources: Jane Mayer - "The dark side", Stephen Gray - "Ghostplane"). So, with the 'new' faces, everything stays the same. I am sure that the people won't buy that. "It's almost an insult to the intelligence of the people", said Mohamed ElBaradei referring to the Mubarak's offer (Mohamed ElBaradei is an opposition leader, Nobel Peace Price winner, former head of International Atomic Energy Agency). So far the Army was staying away from the fight. With the complete absence of the police and increasing danger of looting, the Army became the only form of chaos prevention. Unfortunately, since it has been deployed in a relatively small numbers there are a lot of neighborhoods in the cities where the citizens didn't have a choice but organized Neighborhood Watch Units - armed in whatever they could put their hands on, from kitchen knives to the golf clubs. It's reported that the Army along with the citizens of Cairo stand guard around the Egyptian Museum which was already affected by the angry mob. Some of the expositions have been destroyed, although nothing has been stolen so far.
As reported by Al Jezeera the looting has increased. In many instances the perpetrators caught by the neighborhood watch units happened to have the police ID cards. It appears that either the hated already police on their own decided to take advantage of the situation... or, it is the organized conspiracy of the government to create as much havoc and chaos as possible before ordering the Army to pacify the country, the same time showing off how good and caring the government is, especially compared to the alternative. It's reported that about 1000 of violent criminals escaped (or were purposely set loose) from the notorious high security prison in Fayoum (about 40 miles South from Cairo). Unfortunately during the looting of the police precincts a significant number of firearms (often assault rifles) was also acquired by looters. Such an outcome increases the danger in an absence of the law enforcement. It's estimated that so far the death toll is about 100, with a less severe casualties going into thousands. The hospitals which are right now understaffed (since some personnel simply didn't show up to work) are overwhelmed by the number of injured. The situation is worsened by the general understanding that the doctors "are" a part of the establishment, not "the people", what increases the grievances. On Sunday, the new work week starts in Egypt. What is it going to bring? Now one of the most important questions remains unanswered: Is the Army going to support the people's movement and help creating the situation in which the Mubarak's regime is left with only one solution - resignation? - or it will blindly fulfills the orders coming from the government... and everything returns to the Status Quo? Another nagging question concerns the possible political direction shift dependent on who assumes the lead role in Egypt. On one side the growing radicalization of the society is a strong factor to consider, on the other side lays the wisdom of the Egyptian People who repeatedly rejected in the Past all the attempts of the Muslim Brothers (although in Egyptian reality they are almost Main Stream) and other extreme options.
Maybe it's time for the West (with the leadership of the USA) to take side of the People more decidedly - before the order to shoot is issued by the current regime and completely unnecessary (and unacceptable) loss of life increases. I would say: the time is right about NOW...
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Unrest in the North Africa - how far it spreads - what it implies to the rest of the World...
Situation in the Middle East has been far from stable for many decades. On the surface, most of the countries laying on the Northern shore of Africa were in a state of a quiet 'trans' since the liberation from the colonial forces in the at the beginning of the XX century. Some of them were openly accepting coexistence with the West on the World's arena (like Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco) and some others like Libya had a long rooted problem with it (in the person of it's Leader Muammar al-Gaddafi - who apparently recently noticed some benefits in suckling the West's udder). Another one like Algeria (or it's white population) never came to terms with the separation from the all-powerful Mother Country - France. All together, with some extended periods of the very misleading inactivity and complacency always something was brewing under the surface.
When the country of Israel was established in 1948 with the expiration of the British Mandate (and accepted to the United Nations in 1949) the peace of the whole region became a very fragile, ephemeral "creature" requiring constant supervision from the UN and the West. Growing Anti-Israeli sentiments (partially because of the mishandling of the Palestinian issue by the Western Countries) became the nagging problem, resulting on a few occasions in a military conflicts between Israel and Egypt as well as other countries of the region, like Syria, Jordan, Lebanon.
I will dwell on this subject some other time.
I do not need to explain the importance of the North-African-Shore countries (and the whole Middle East) to the security and the prosperity of the neighboring with them across the Mediterranean European Countries. I do not need to explain the importance from the strategical and economical point of view all of these countries to to the whole World. They are on the edge of the still underdeveloped and presenting tremendous potential (as a source of the minerals we need and the fossil fuels we want) continent. Not even mentioning that this region is in too close proximity to the rich in oil fields of the Saudi Arabia and all the OPEC countries. And of course I do not need to remind anybody that the Suez Canal being in the hands of the Egyptians is a very strong determinant of the "growing friendship" between the West and the Arab Republic of Egypt.
In such an economical and political climate no expenses were spared by the Russians (and Chinese) to influence the countries of the region - to which they could claim the full success when after the Nasser revolution in Egypt a pro-Soviet government was established with Nasser as a head of state). Russian control of the Suez Canal ended with Anwar El Sadat taking office of the President of Egypt in 1970. His openly pro-Western sentiments killed him finally in 1981 when he was assassinated by the Islamic extremists during the parade celebrating the October 6 Victory in a '6 hour war' of 1973. However due to his pro-Western sentiments lots a things changed in Egypt. Inferior Russian technology was replaced by the Western one. Egypt started producing Italian and French cars, and other products. Hotels and restaurants were growing everywhere inviting the Western tourists and their Western mighty currency. Tightened by the President Nasser laws (as a reaction to the unruly and lose behavioral style in the King Farouk era - before the revolution), were loosened again to accommodate growing number of Westerners vacationing and also working in that country - some laws changed for more personal reasons (ie.: his daughter couldn't divorce her husband under the Islamic Law - the law was changed to accommodate her needs). Cairo became again a one of the Capitals of the World. The CIA is said to be responsible for building a 141 ft TV tower in the center of the Zamalek (an island on the Nile in Cairo - a place of the Opera House, the Western Embassys and the Corporate Offices...). American support in funds and equipment for the 1 Million strong Egyptian military began, as well as Western political support. What we have to remember is also the fact that all Egyptian Presidents were generals in the Egyptian Army before taking office of the President.
After assassination of the President Sadat, the Martial Law has been implemented. A few months later after some not important personnel changes Hosni Mubarak who was a Vice President since 1975 took office as President of Egypt. And the new era began. It was 1981.
Mubarak since the very beginning tried to juggle both Western influences and interest and the growing Radicalization and Fundamentalization of Egyptian Muslim population.
Egypt is a multi-religious country, has always been. About 13-15% of the population is Christian - called Coptic. Their religion as an organized Coptic Church is dated much earlier than any of the organized European Christian denominations. Until today Egypt has many working Coptic monasteries - places of the mass pilgrimages of their Christan part of the society. They still believe in the same form of a Christan faith, a bit different form any denominations in Europe. Their language of faith is also Coptic. Their alphabet is based on the Greek, but has a few symbols more and a different vocabulary. Some of the aforementioned monasteries were established on the edge of the Eastern Desert as early as the 4-th Century (St. Paul's and St. Anthony's). They have churches in the Egyptian cities, not as numerous as mosques, but many. Relatively huge part of Coptic population lives in the part of the country called Middle Egypt, 2-3 hundred miles south of Cairo. The remaining 85-87% of the Egyptian society is Muslim.
I spent 2 years in Egypt in the Eighties. I was a photographer of one of the Archaeological Centers who had to travel to sometimes very remote locations in Egypt to cover the archaeological excavations. I traveled extensively (also to the Sudan), getting to know the country, it's history, it's people, their customs. People who were in most cases extremely poor (in the European standards), but very friendly and well spirited at the same time. It was a common thing in Cairo to pass a person (or a family) sitting on a grass covered median on one of the streets, eating their lunch and to be stopped by one of them and offered to share the food with them. At that time - in the eighties - they weren't indoctrinated yet by the extreme Muslim organizations for whom the only way of encounter the infidels is with the knife or a gun in their hands.
It was also the beginning of the Mubarak era. The hopes of the nation were high.
In a certain way all the Presidents of Egypt were extremely crucial in making Egypt what it is today. President Nasser (who was pro Soviet ruler) brought Egypt out of Feudal Era to the XX-the Century. He introduced obligatory basic education for all. An analphabetism in the Muslim countries is not that widely spread since every believer has to be able to read the Kur'an and does it often. Nevertheless the schools were secular, not religious 'madrassas'. Branches of the Universities were spreading like mushrooms to every community in the country. (The quality of the education is a completely different story). He also covered all Egyptians by the State run Health program. Doctors and hospitals were open for every one in need (again, the quality is a different animal). He introduced the "bread for all" program and fixed-price-stores for the poorer population - with heavily subsidized food.
Sadat brought the Western technology and close ties with the West. All the social programs were kept. Mubarak reinforced all previously introduced elements and at the time of growing Muslim extremism - had a difficult task to keep Egypt "afloat" - preventing it from sinking back to the Middle Ages (Established in 1928 - and banned in Egypt for decades - Muslim Brotherhood would gladly introduce the Muslim Sharia Law and cut all ties with the West).
Radicalization of the Muslim population is a rapidly progressing process. This process has been well fed by Saudi Arabia's Riyal ($1~4Riyal) - in the eighties Saudi Arabia introduced the scholarships on the Egyptian Universities for the female students just for wearing typical Muslim clothes - long robes with just the face uncovered or even covered by a veil. During my 2 years in Egypt between 1984 and 1986 I was flabbergasted by the rapid change on the streets of Cairo or Alexandria - from looking completely Western (short skirts, tight blouses, well groomed hair... to the streets filled with "burkas" or at least women with the scarfs draped around their faces preventing from showing even a tiniest glimpse of the skin).
A couple of years ago (2006) while I was on the excavations near Alexandria, I met a prominent Egyptian archaeologist who in a casual conversation with me bragged proudly about the previous night 'intervention' - prompted by the family he exorcised his brother, and by reading the Kur'an loudly to him, he expelled the Satan out of his brother's body... Just a reminder - it was 2006.
Saudi fed fundamental extremism was responsible for the unrest in Cairo in the early 1986 (police riots). One must understand that the regular Police is composed of young people from the very poor, and mostly rural parts of the country - it was (one may call) a "work for all" program. When I returned from the Sudan when it was over (the Police was shooting from the helicopters to the people demonstrating on the streets and burning the high end hotels in Giza) I was met at the airport by the well fed, and groomed, well armed and very bright and smart looking comandos - instead of the police and soldiers with mismatched boots and the rifles on a twine instead of a normal strap. This was the moment when I learned that the Egyptian Army, well hidden in the desert, is ready for any unrest the future may bring.
Since the late eighties Muslim extremists have been responsible for numerous and very often very bloody attacks on the Western tourists like the Luxor massacre on 1997, or later notorious shooting at the air-conditioned cars of the train going from Cairo to Luxor. There were kidnappings and assassinations, there were suicide bombings of the frequented by the Israelis and the Westerners - Red See resorts - all done by the extremists. Let's not forget about the 911 and the fact that some of the terrorists were from this country as well.
Mentioned beforehand Middle Egypt with it's big population of the Copts (Egyptian Christians) is very often off-limits for the Western tourists - for their own protection. Every now and then the massacres of Copts by the Muslim extremists occur. Unrest is on the rise. When I repeatedly traveled throughout the region (already after 911) my car was always followed (and preceded) by the armed Police units escorting me to the places on my itinerary, or at least to the highway (if I signed the waiver that I didn't want any protection).
Unfortunately, for the status quo - The Democracy in Egypt is non-existent. Along with the radicalization the general social and political awareness is on the rise. In order to keep the situation under control, the President Mubarak'(s regime rules heavy-handedly with the use of very efficient Secret Police and the Army. People disappear overnight (Amnesty International reports often). The People's voice would not necessarily bring any Western style Democracy to the country like that. This is what many pundits and scholars are afraid of - democratic electoral process may (or rather will) create in Egypt the religion based system like Saudi Arabia, or Kuwait, with the ongoing suppression of the human rights and women rights in particular.
No one had any doubts, all the Mubarak elections were fixed. It's not my claim - it transpired from the streets, talks with people... I was in Egypt when the last elections took place. It was a first time when the Regime allowed a number of the opposition candidates to run along the incumbent President. The opposition diluted their vote. Even in the UN observed elections Mubarak won in a land-slide. At the same time (before the elections) I talked to a young college graduate who worked as a clerk in a (...) car rental office in one of the (...) Hotels. He started the political reflections unprompted, in a way he felt an imperative to share his frustration with a stranger who could denounce his subversiveness to the authorities. He was furious talking of lack of freedoms the current regime was imposing on them. He was furious about the corruption of the government, he was furious about the particular interests of the Mubarak's family and that his sons are prepared to 'inherit the throne'. He was furious about the Martial Law which has never been revoked since the assassination of Sadat.
It's an era of the Internet, Cell Phones, Twitter, easy travel. It's an era of Information. No matter how GOOD the DICTATORSHIP is - and this one is just a normal - 'good-for-nothing' dictatorship - one can't stop people's quest for a social and economical reforms, for the transparency in the government, for what we take for granted - RIGHT TO FREE SPEECH, RIGHT TO ASSEMBLY...
Making sure that the Status Quo remains untouched is not going to be possible for long. It's kept in balance only by our financial support.
America stands in the World as a champion of the ideals, champion of the human rights, and political freedoms. And yet so often America supports the regimes which, although crucial for the stability in their region, crucial for the World's interests, the same time are repressive to their own people - that it makes me ask a question - is it worthy? - and where do we draw the line? - when does the social cost of such a "stability" outrun the benefits?
----------
On Tuesday, thousands of people took part in anti-government protests in Cairo and other cities, calling for an end to three decades of rule by President Hosni Mubarak. Three civilians and a police officer were killed in the unrest. Egypt's government said at least 85 police officers were injured. Some Tweets say about 2000 protesters being held by the Police overnight.
Tuesday's demonstrations in Cairo began peacefully, with police at first showing restraint. Several people said the clashes in Cairo began after protesters tried to take control of a water cannon truck. Such a coordinated wave of anti-government protests has not been seen in Egypt since Mubarak assumed power in 1981 after Islamists assassinated President Anwar Sadat.
The protests were promoted online by groups saying they speak for young Egyptians frustrated with the kind of poverty and oppression that triggered Tunisia's unrest. It escalated far beyond this point. Egyptians torched a police post in Suez early on Thursday in response to the killing of three demonstrators earlier in the week, a Reuters witness said. Tweets brought to our attention also the fact that the army cut the Suez off. There is no Internet, no cell phones, not Twitter working in Suez. Report of the Police brutality however ooze out.
Thousands of protesters also took to the streets in Yemen on Thursday to demand a change of government there. It raises the total of affected countries in that region to 3.
All of these regimes had a strong US support since they also were strong participants in the War on Terror (not always very effective like in the case of Yemeni regime).
Does it mean that the started in December 2010 Tunisian revolt (making Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, who had ruled the country for 23 years, and his family flee for exile) just ignited the "brush wild fires" which are going to spread through the region and change the geopolitical map of the World forever?
Maybe not at this moment of history. But it may be closer than we would like to realize.
When the country of Israel was established in 1948 with the expiration of the British Mandate (and accepted to the United Nations in 1949) the peace of the whole region became a very fragile, ephemeral "creature" requiring constant supervision from the UN and the West. Growing Anti-Israeli sentiments (partially because of the mishandling of the Palestinian issue by the Western Countries) became the nagging problem, resulting on a few occasions in a military conflicts between Israel and Egypt as well as other countries of the region, like Syria, Jordan, Lebanon.
I will dwell on this subject some other time.
I do not need to explain the importance of the North-African-Shore countries (and the whole Middle East) to the security and the prosperity of the neighboring with them across the Mediterranean European Countries. I do not need to explain the importance from the strategical and economical point of view all of these countries to to the whole World. They are on the edge of the still underdeveloped and presenting tremendous potential (as a source of the minerals we need and the fossil fuels we want) continent. Not even mentioning that this region is in too close proximity to the rich in oil fields of the Saudi Arabia and all the OPEC countries. And of course I do not need to remind anybody that the Suez Canal being in the hands of the Egyptians is a very strong determinant of the "growing friendship" between the West and the Arab Republic of Egypt.
In such an economical and political climate no expenses were spared by the Russians (and Chinese) to influence the countries of the region - to which they could claim the full success when after the Nasser revolution in Egypt a pro-Soviet government was established with Nasser as a head of state). Russian control of the Suez Canal ended with Anwar El Sadat taking office of the President of Egypt in 1970. His openly pro-Western sentiments killed him finally in 1981 when he was assassinated by the Islamic extremists during the parade celebrating the October 6 Victory in a '6 hour war' of 1973. However due to his pro-Western sentiments lots a things changed in Egypt. Inferior Russian technology was replaced by the Western one. Egypt started producing Italian and French cars, and other products. Hotels and restaurants were growing everywhere inviting the Western tourists and their Western mighty currency. Tightened by the President Nasser laws (as a reaction to the unruly and lose behavioral style in the King Farouk era - before the revolution), were loosened again to accommodate growing number of Westerners vacationing and also working in that country - some laws changed for more personal reasons (ie.: his daughter couldn't divorce her husband under the Islamic Law - the law was changed to accommodate her needs). Cairo became again a one of the Capitals of the World. The CIA is said to be responsible for building a 141 ft TV tower in the center of the Zamalek (an island on the Nile in Cairo - a place of the Opera House, the Western Embassys and the Corporate Offices...). American support in funds and equipment for the 1 Million strong Egyptian military began, as well as Western political support. What we have to remember is also the fact that all Egyptian Presidents were generals in the Egyptian Army before taking office of the President.
After assassination of the President Sadat, the Martial Law has been implemented. A few months later after some not important personnel changes Hosni Mubarak who was a Vice President since 1975 took office as President of Egypt. And the new era began. It was 1981.
Mubarak since the very beginning tried to juggle both Western influences and interest and the growing Radicalization and Fundamentalization of Egyptian Muslim population.
Egypt is a multi-religious country, has always been. About 13-15% of the population is Christian - called Coptic. Their religion as an organized Coptic Church is dated much earlier than any of the organized European Christian denominations. Until today Egypt has many working Coptic monasteries - places of the mass pilgrimages of their Christan part of the society. They still believe in the same form of a Christan faith, a bit different form any denominations in Europe. Their language of faith is also Coptic. Their alphabet is based on the Greek, but has a few symbols more and a different vocabulary. Some of the aforementioned monasteries were established on the edge of the Eastern Desert as early as the 4-th Century (St. Paul's and St. Anthony's). They have churches in the Egyptian cities, not as numerous as mosques, but many. Relatively huge part of Coptic population lives in the part of the country called Middle Egypt, 2-3 hundred miles south of Cairo. The remaining 85-87% of the Egyptian society is Muslim.
I spent 2 years in Egypt in the Eighties. I was a photographer of one of the Archaeological Centers who had to travel to sometimes very remote locations in Egypt to cover the archaeological excavations. I traveled extensively (also to the Sudan), getting to know the country, it's history, it's people, their customs. People who were in most cases extremely poor (in the European standards), but very friendly and well spirited at the same time. It was a common thing in Cairo to pass a person (or a family) sitting on a grass covered median on one of the streets, eating their lunch and to be stopped by one of them and offered to share the food with them. At that time - in the eighties - they weren't indoctrinated yet by the extreme Muslim organizations for whom the only way of encounter the infidels is with the knife or a gun in their hands.
It was also the beginning of the Mubarak era. The hopes of the nation were high.
In a certain way all the Presidents of Egypt were extremely crucial in making Egypt what it is today. President Nasser (who was pro Soviet ruler) brought Egypt out of Feudal Era to the XX-the Century. He introduced obligatory basic education for all. An analphabetism in the Muslim countries is not that widely spread since every believer has to be able to read the Kur'an and does it often. Nevertheless the schools were secular, not religious 'madrassas'. Branches of the Universities were spreading like mushrooms to every community in the country. (The quality of the education is a completely different story). He also covered all Egyptians by the State run Health program. Doctors and hospitals were open for every one in need (again, the quality is a different animal). He introduced the "bread for all" program and fixed-price-stores for the poorer population - with heavily subsidized food.
Sadat brought the Western technology and close ties with the West. All the social programs were kept. Mubarak reinforced all previously introduced elements and at the time of growing Muslim extremism - had a difficult task to keep Egypt "afloat" - preventing it from sinking back to the Middle Ages (Established in 1928 - and banned in Egypt for decades - Muslim Brotherhood would gladly introduce the Muslim Sharia Law and cut all ties with the West).
Radicalization of the Muslim population is a rapidly progressing process. This process has been well fed by Saudi Arabia's Riyal ($1~4Riyal) - in the eighties Saudi Arabia introduced the scholarships on the Egyptian Universities for the female students just for wearing typical Muslim clothes - long robes with just the face uncovered or even covered by a veil. During my 2 years in Egypt between 1984 and 1986 I was flabbergasted by the rapid change on the streets of Cairo or Alexandria - from looking completely Western (short skirts, tight blouses, well groomed hair... to the streets filled with "burkas" or at least women with the scarfs draped around their faces preventing from showing even a tiniest glimpse of the skin).
A couple of years ago (2006) while I was on the excavations near Alexandria, I met a prominent Egyptian archaeologist who in a casual conversation with me bragged proudly about the previous night 'intervention' - prompted by the family he exorcised his brother, and by reading the Kur'an loudly to him, he expelled the Satan out of his brother's body... Just a reminder - it was 2006.
Saudi fed fundamental extremism was responsible for the unrest in Cairo in the early 1986 (police riots). One must understand that the regular Police is composed of young people from the very poor, and mostly rural parts of the country - it was (one may call) a "work for all" program. When I returned from the Sudan when it was over (the Police was shooting from the helicopters to the people demonstrating on the streets and burning the high end hotels in Giza) I was met at the airport by the well fed, and groomed, well armed and very bright and smart looking comandos - instead of the police and soldiers with mismatched boots and the rifles on a twine instead of a normal strap. This was the moment when I learned that the Egyptian Army, well hidden in the desert, is ready for any unrest the future may bring.
Since the late eighties Muslim extremists have been responsible for numerous and very often very bloody attacks on the Western tourists like the Luxor massacre on 1997, or later notorious shooting at the air-conditioned cars of the train going from Cairo to Luxor. There were kidnappings and assassinations, there were suicide bombings of the frequented by the Israelis and the Westerners - Red See resorts - all done by the extremists. Let's not forget about the 911 and the fact that some of the terrorists were from this country as well.
Mentioned beforehand Middle Egypt with it's big population of the Copts (Egyptian Christians) is very often off-limits for the Western tourists - for their own protection. Every now and then the massacres of Copts by the Muslim extremists occur. Unrest is on the rise. When I repeatedly traveled throughout the region (already after 911) my car was always followed (and preceded) by the armed Police units escorting me to the places on my itinerary, or at least to the highway (if I signed the waiver that I didn't want any protection).
Unfortunately, for the status quo - The Democracy in Egypt is non-existent. Along with the radicalization the general social and political awareness is on the rise. In order to keep the situation under control, the President Mubarak'(s regime rules heavy-handedly with the use of very efficient Secret Police and the Army. People disappear overnight (Amnesty International reports often). The People's voice would not necessarily bring any Western style Democracy to the country like that. This is what many pundits and scholars are afraid of - democratic electoral process may (or rather will) create in Egypt the religion based system like Saudi Arabia, or Kuwait, with the ongoing suppression of the human rights and women rights in particular.
No one had any doubts, all the Mubarak elections were fixed. It's not my claim - it transpired from the streets, talks with people... I was in Egypt when the last elections took place. It was a first time when the Regime allowed a number of the opposition candidates to run along the incumbent President. The opposition diluted their vote. Even in the UN observed elections Mubarak won in a land-slide. At the same time (before the elections) I talked to a young college graduate who worked as a clerk in a (...) car rental office in one of the (...) Hotels. He started the political reflections unprompted, in a way he felt an imperative to share his frustration with a stranger who could denounce his subversiveness to the authorities. He was furious talking of lack of freedoms the current regime was imposing on them. He was furious about the corruption of the government, he was furious about the particular interests of the Mubarak's family and that his sons are prepared to 'inherit the throne'. He was furious about the Martial Law which has never been revoked since the assassination of Sadat.
It's an era of the Internet, Cell Phones, Twitter, easy travel. It's an era of Information. No matter how GOOD the DICTATORSHIP is - and this one is just a normal - 'good-for-nothing' dictatorship - one can't stop people's quest for a social and economical reforms, for the transparency in the government, for what we take for granted - RIGHT TO FREE SPEECH, RIGHT TO ASSEMBLY...
Making sure that the Status Quo remains untouched is not going to be possible for long. It's kept in balance only by our financial support.
America stands in the World as a champion of the ideals, champion of the human rights, and political freedoms. And yet so often America supports the regimes which, although crucial for the stability in their region, crucial for the World's interests, the same time are repressive to their own people - that it makes me ask a question - is it worthy? - and where do we draw the line? - when does the social cost of such a "stability" outrun the benefits?
----------
On Tuesday, thousands of people took part in anti-government protests in Cairo and other cities, calling for an end to three decades of rule by President Hosni Mubarak. Three civilians and a police officer were killed in the unrest. Egypt's government said at least 85 police officers were injured. Some Tweets say about 2000 protesters being held by the Police overnight.
Tuesday's demonstrations in Cairo began peacefully, with police at first showing restraint. Several people said the clashes in Cairo began after protesters tried to take control of a water cannon truck. Such a coordinated wave of anti-government protests has not been seen in Egypt since Mubarak assumed power in 1981 after Islamists assassinated President Anwar Sadat.
The protests were promoted online by groups saying they speak for young Egyptians frustrated with the kind of poverty and oppression that triggered Tunisia's unrest. It escalated far beyond this point. Egyptians torched a police post in Suez early on Thursday in response to the killing of three demonstrators earlier in the week, a Reuters witness said. Tweets brought to our attention also the fact that the army cut the Suez off. There is no Internet, no cell phones, not Twitter working in Suez. Report of the Police brutality however ooze out.
Thousands of protesters also took to the streets in Yemen on Thursday to demand a change of government there. It raises the total of affected countries in that region to 3.
All of these regimes had a strong US support since they also were strong participants in the War on Terror (not always very effective like in the case of Yemeni regime).
Does it mean that the started in December 2010 Tunisian revolt (making Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, who had ruled the country for 23 years, and his family flee for exile) just ignited the "brush wild fires" which are going to spread through the region and change the geopolitical map of the World forever?
Maybe not at this moment of history. But it may be closer than we would like to realize.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Presidential State Of The Union Address - opposition's responses...
I have paid attention to more than 20 Presidential State Of The Union Addresses - delivered by the last 5 Presidents. They never left me satisfied, even the last year's Obama's speech.
I have to admit that this one was completely different. It was mostly with the economy in mind, promising the emphasis on the job creation and making America competitive on the World Market again. Obama even quoted the "deliverables" resulting from the on-going talks with the China and Korea - creating hundreds of thousand jobs in the US. He promised doubling of the national export by 2014. There was a good stress on the clean energy promising that 85% of the US produced energy by 2035 will come from the Clean Energy (of course it leaves the question "how clean is clean energy" if we talk about the nuclear power plans or the energy coming from burning of fossil fuels - "clean coal" and gas). He also concentrated on necessity of saving the budget. 5 Year Freeze on all Discretionary Domestic spending is a good start - followed by restructuring the current programs. At the same time he promised prioritizing higher education to produce more technologically advanced work force. There was a "Sputnik moment" mentioned and a "fast train" to the future - and Coast to Coast.
Some pundits criticized it afterwords for being too general, and not delivering any solutions. Some others for sending some contradictory messages (spending freeze - education and infrastructure expansion, etc).
Health reform which is the sore in the eye of the Republicans was on a table for "re sculpting" - "let's fix what needs to be fixed and let's move forward" - said Obama. America suffers the highest in the World Corporate Tax, at the same time having loopholes allowing many (most) to pay close to nothing. It's on a target list along with the simplifying of the tax code in general.
These were the things we almost always hear on such occasions, however most of the times not as convincingly as today.
What we almost never heard in such a decisive way is the promise of restructuring of the Government, dismantling many redundant agencies and services, saving funds as well as increasing the efficiency of such services several times. As stated by the President such a restructuring was overdue since the "B&W TV era". This kind of a promise along with the rejecting of all of the earmarks in all the future bills - besides being a very good idea must have looked very attractive even to the Republicans.
I was waiting impatiently to hear how was going to be mentioned and how was offered to be solved the issue of 2 Wars inherited from the former administration. According to the President the Iraq War is ended and even though slowly, the stabilization becomes more pronounced, and the day the last American soldier returns home is in the near future. The same was told about American involvement in the Afghan conflict - with the shift of responsibilities to the Locals, Pakistan and other allies, it makes the talk about return of our personnel also possible. It's about time. Also, the price tag of these wars so far is more than $3 Trillion of the money we didn't have at the first place (ref-a). When our involvement in these unpopular activities is limited or ended - then and only then we can start talking about getting out of debt.
Knowing the complexity of the political and economical climate in the last months (enhanced by the result of the November elections) I have no doubt that the President Obama, preparing to deliver the State of The Union address in January 2011, faced probably the toughest task out of all 5 Presidents whom I had a chance to observe. And yet the delivered 'product' played well the tune of hope. A real hope, and not a fairy tale. Lots of promises, but the same time making the impression that the fulfillment is withing the reach.
So, when the President finally pronounced the usual "...and the State of Our Union is strong" - it actually didn't sound like a cliche.
---------------
It leaves us with two responses to the President's Speech - one by the legitimate Republican Rep. Paul Ryan, and the other by a Tea Party spokesperson Rep. Michelle Bachmann.
As much as Ryan's response was quite predictably attacking the Policy of the President, and promising the fight for reducing of the size and the influence of the Federal Government on both business as well as State Governments - it wasn't too confrontational. It's tone offered some hope for negotiations, and the reasoning. Ryan seemed to understand that the situation in which our economy is right now is the result of action of a few presidents before Obama (I would insist on blaming only the previous one) .
This, by itself was one of the biggest differences between his response and the one delivered by Michelle Bachmann. The latter one immersed herself in a cloud of condemning-Obama-and-all-the-Democrats rhetoric. She didn't have any problem with putting a blame only on the current administration for the effects of Bush presidency, concentrating herself on how the economy (and the job market) was 'crashed' by the Obama's policy in the first 2 years of current Presidency. Although surprisingly she stayed away from total "misfiring" of the data (bending it nevertheless to prove her agenda), however couldn't help herself making a factually incorrect reference about the American attack on Iwo Jima, claiming that American GI-s won that battle "against all the odds". Well, however difficult and bloody (resulting in a great number of casualties) this episode of the War on the Pacific was, the ODDS weren't against us. It was already the March of 1945. Michelle Bachman and her writers have a very baffling tendency of writing the fictional short stories - vaguely connected to the reality.
---------------
ref-a: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/03/AR2010090302200.html
I have to admit that this one was completely different. It was mostly with the economy in mind, promising the emphasis on the job creation and making America competitive on the World Market again. Obama even quoted the "deliverables" resulting from the on-going talks with the China and Korea - creating hundreds of thousand jobs in the US. He promised doubling of the national export by 2014. There was a good stress on the clean energy promising that 85% of the US produced energy by 2035 will come from the Clean Energy (of course it leaves the question "how clean is clean energy" if we talk about the nuclear power plans or the energy coming from burning of fossil fuels - "clean coal" and gas). He also concentrated on necessity of saving the budget. 5 Year Freeze on all Discretionary Domestic spending is a good start - followed by restructuring the current programs. At the same time he promised prioritizing higher education to produce more technologically advanced work force. There was a "Sputnik moment" mentioned and a "fast train" to the future - and Coast to Coast.
Some pundits criticized it afterwords for being too general, and not delivering any solutions. Some others for sending some contradictory messages (spending freeze - education and infrastructure expansion, etc).
Health reform which is the sore in the eye of the Republicans was on a table for "re sculpting" - "let's fix what needs to be fixed and let's move forward" - said Obama. America suffers the highest in the World Corporate Tax, at the same time having loopholes allowing many (most) to pay close to nothing. It's on a target list along with the simplifying of the tax code in general.
These were the things we almost always hear on such occasions, however most of the times not as convincingly as today.
What we almost never heard in such a decisive way is the promise of restructuring of the Government, dismantling many redundant agencies and services, saving funds as well as increasing the efficiency of such services several times. As stated by the President such a restructuring was overdue since the "B&W TV era". This kind of a promise along with the rejecting of all of the earmarks in all the future bills - besides being a very good idea must have looked very attractive even to the Republicans.
I was waiting impatiently to hear how was going to be mentioned and how was offered to be solved the issue of 2 Wars inherited from the former administration. According to the President the Iraq War is ended and even though slowly, the stabilization becomes more pronounced, and the day the last American soldier returns home is in the near future. The same was told about American involvement in the Afghan conflict - with the shift of responsibilities to the Locals, Pakistan and other allies, it makes the talk about return of our personnel also possible. It's about time. Also, the price tag of these wars so far is more than $3 Trillion of the money we didn't have at the first place (ref-a). When our involvement in these unpopular activities is limited or ended - then and only then we can start talking about getting out of debt.
Knowing the complexity of the political and economical climate in the last months (enhanced by the result of the November elections) I have no doubt that the President Obama, preparing to deliver the State of The Union address in January 2011, faced probably the toughest task out of all 5 Presidents whom I had a chance to observe. And yet the delivered 'product' played well the tune of hope. A real hope, and not a fairy tale. Lots of promises, but the same time making the impression that the fulfillment is withing the reach.
So, when the President finally pronounced the usual "...and the State of Our Union is strong" - it actually didn't sound like a cliche.
---------------
It leaves us with two responses to the President's Speech - one by the legitimate Republican Rep. Paul Ryan, and the other by a Tea Party spokesperson Rep. Michelle Bachmann.
As much as Ryan's response was quite predictably attacking the Policy of the President, and promising the fight for reducing of the size and the influence of the Federal Government on both business as well as State Governments - it wasn't too confrontational. It's tone offered some hope for negotiations, and the reasoning. Ryan seemed to understand that the situation in which our economy is right now is the result of action of a few presidents before Obama (I would insist on blaming only the previous one) .
This, by itself was one of the biggest differences between his response and the one delivered by Michelle Bachmann. The latter one immersed herself in a cloud of condemning-Obama-and-all-the-Democrats rhetoric. She didn't have any problem with putting a blame only on the current administration for the effects of Bush presidency, concentrating herself on how the economy (and the job market) was 'crashed' by the Obama's policy in the first 2 years of current Presidency. Although surprisingly she stayed away from total "misfiring" of the data (bending it nevertheless to prove her agenda), however couldn't help herself making a factually incorrect reference about the American attack on Iwo Jima, claiming that American GI-s won that battle "against all the odds". Well, however difficult and bloody (resulting in a great number of casualties) this episode of the War on the Pacific was, the ODDS weren't against us. It was already the March of 1945. Michelle Bachman and her writers have a very baffling tendency of writing the fictional short stories - vaguely connected to the reality.
---------------
ref-a: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/03/AR2010090302200.html
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