Egypt - a week Anniversary of ending a 30 years lasting regime... other countries...

Thousands of demonstrators gathered in Tahrir Square in the center of Cairo in celebration of the 1 week Anniversary of ousting the president Mubarak and his cronies.
The jubilation mood is overwhelming.  There is also a more concerned note in the undertone of this happy activities - to remind the Army who is in power in Egypt right now, of all the promises related to leading the country to Democracy.  It is not the same, complacent Egypt the whole World got used to throughout the decades.  The people of Egypt who in great degree are young and educated know exactly what they want.  The movement which changed the country in a peaceful revolution we all observed, is still leaderless, but the new political life is being created, and simmers under the surface.  Tweets from Cairo prove the completely new, proud attitude of the "new owners" of Egypt.
More and more voices demand the criminal investigation against the members of the Mubarak's government, and Mubarak himself.  A few former ministers are already detained by the Army in the prisons with increased security.

While the Egyptians celebrate their new lease on freedom, most of the Arab countries experience the unprecedented turmoils. 

Tunisia, who started this 'wild fire' is far from being stable. Former regime was a long time ally of the USA in the "war on terror" (ousted president - unrest started on economical/social basis). 

Algeria, suffers waves of the unrest - clashes with the security forces (the unrest started on economical/social basis).

Libya, run for 40 odd years by the Colonel Muammar Gaddafi is swept with the protests.  Most of the demonstrations and clashes occurred outside of Tripoli.
Some reports talk about the as many as 20 protesters killed in Benghazi alone in clashes with the Police. In Al Baida, the third biggest city of the country the sporadic clashes continue since Wednesday.   At the same time in Tripoli the supporters of the "Revolution Leader - Colonel Gaddafi" demonstrate the unshaken trust in the Government.  In all the countries of the region the  apparatus has been built in a very similar way - based on very well maintained and efficient security forces and "countless" number of paid thugs.  We all learned about their swift responses to the uprising in Egypt.  For decades this country was on the list of the terror supporters.  However in the last few years it's megalomaniac Leader "made peace" with the US and even helped with the "extraordinary renditions"(demands of the protesters include the ouster of the Col. Gaddafi and the economical/social reforms).

Yemen, a poor country on the Southern end of the Arabian Peninsula, is mostly tribal society.  It's president - Ali Abdullah Saleh has ruled this country for more than 3 decades.  A valued ally of the US in the "war on terror".  The population organized the strong demonstrations almost coinciding with the Egyptian uprising.  The security forces responded with the tear gas and the rubber bullets.  There are noted fatalities.  The government tried to negotiate some concessions, promising that Saleh wouldn't run in the 2013 elections.  As expected, this window dressing couldn't satisfy the protesters (demands of the protesters include the ouster of the president and the economical/social reforms).

Bahrain, the country about which the most of the Americans have been oblivious so far, suddenly jumped in the center of the stage and into the news reports.  A small island country on the Western shore of the Persian Gulf inhabited by roughly 1.23 million people, of which 666 thousand are non-nationals.  The country is an absolute monarchy headed by the King - Shaikh Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa.  The economy is based on exploitation of natural resources - oil and pearls.  Native population is mostly Shia, but the ruling family (also part of the government) is Sunni.  Most of the non-nationals are the migrant workers in great degree Indian and Pakistani.  The Bahrain native Shia population, in such a close proximity of Iran is considered by some observers as a dangerous combination.  Hence the world's quiet approval of the oppressive rules of the Sunni ruling Family, for years...
This little Island is also the home of the US 5th Fleet - which by itself makes Bahrain strategically crucial to the interests of the USA - and makes it a valued ally.
Several reports from the capital city Manama described the government forces mercilessly crushing on the demonstrators using the tear gas, rubber bullets, and later steel pellets and life ammunition.  There were deaths reported, however the officially reported number of fatalities is not proportional to the confirmed, sporadic death reports.  There is a justified suspicion of the death toll being much higher, than officially reported.  I understand that in such a complicated geo-political situation, reforms come at a very high price.  The protesters, unfortunately were not given a choice.  In order to force the government into the negotiation of the social and economical reforms, the protesters had to get to the streets and demonstrate.  Unfortunately, the government, promising the reforms when the country calms down, unleashed the security forces on the peaceful demonstrators.  One of them asked by a CNN correspondent if he would consider sacrificing his life in this protest, responded: "Of course. That is why I am here..."

We should not forget or overlook the new developments from the newly established "post-Husein" Iraq.  The economically based protests (raising the issue of the corruption) have been noted and recorded in Baghdad and the Southern city Basrah.
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What all these protests have in common is undeniably the economical/social disapproval of the status quo.  What all these protests have in common is also the fact that ALL OF THEM ARE NOT RELATED TO THE RELIGIOUS FUNDAMENTALISM.  There is no religious undertone of the unrest in any of these countries.  Contrary to the scenario sold to the Western and local population, threatening the "radicalization" of the population, the societies in the Middle East are much more interested in improvement of the economical and social situation of the people than in religious separation from the majority of the Western World.
I am not trying to say that the danger of the radicalization of the Muslim population is not real, far from that.  We all should be vigilant.
But instead of the demonizing threat, the Western governments should become involved actively in convincing the Middle East peoples (and any other region of the world which starts seeking the path to democracy) that America can and will support them, leaving to them the final choice of the solution.

America has been demonized by the fundamental rhetoric for many decades (not without our help, when we reacted to the threat heavy-handedly).  It harmed the perception of the USA in the torn by violence regions.  It harmed the perception of the USA in the Western societies as well.  It allowed the enemies to use some elements of our politics against us in the eyes of the People of the region. 

Maybe it's time to show to the World that our principles - freedom of speech, freedom to assemble, freedom to move and all other pillars of our Constitution which in general create the opportunity to seek the better and fulfilled life - are the principles we stand by, above all, and against all odds.

Egypt - and members of the media (Lara Logan)...

Some sources report that as much as 140 reporters (including Egyptians) were harassed, beaten, detained, sexually or otherwise assaulted in Egypt during the Egyptian Revolution.  Some of them managed to heal their bruises themselves, some ended up in the hospitals.  Many of them were arrested by the government security forces and detained for a number of days - a clear violation of the international law - but the actions of the Army or the official Security Forces are not the subject I want to dwell upon now.  I am far more interested in what happened to the reporters in the streets of Cairo, Alexandria or other cities.
Covering the street fights, or any other unrest similar to the latest in Egypt, or Tunisia (Bahrain, Algeria, Yemen, Iran etc.) is probably the most dangerous job for the journalist.
I strongly believe that it is more dangerous than being a war correspondent.  Although the chance of being killed is much higher as a war journalist, everything is much better defined.  No one wanders to the enemy territory just to cover it without the army support.  In the unrest, this support is either scarce or non existent.
The mentality of the crowd, it's psychology is a very complex one, but it's safe to simply call it "explosive, flammable, volatile...".  A friendly crowd may change to a hostile one within a split second.  It's sometimes even hard to understand the reason for it.  Even more so if the journalist is of completely different cultural (and/or ethnic) background.

A crowd is completely unpredictable, prone to any provocation from forces whose agenda includes such a manipulation.
In Egypt of early February such a vitriol force consisted of the 'paid thugs' who were sent to the crowd to ignite the violence.  But, please do not take me wrong - also among the protesters (like within any group of people anywhere in the whole world) one can find individuals of very low moral standards, who thrive in a violent environment and intend to ignite that.  It only adds to the danger.
In any unrest, some part of the demonstrators accept the helping hand no matter what direction this hand is coming from, and others reject completely (often very naively) any form of foreign "intervention" - when the foreign journalists may be considered a part of this 'intervention'.  This part of the psychology of the crowd IS PREDICTABLE.  All the networks sending the journalists to such a 'tinder box' situation have to know that, and act upon this knowledge.
It's true even if the journalists cover the events in their (or similar) countries where they can 'blend in' or at least not to 'stand out'.  It's a rule of involvement - not to draw too much attention to themselves while covering any social development.

However we have seen on the TV and heard also the relations about the journalists, even the seasoned ones, who go to the streets while the events are unfolding without any security personnel.  If one has a pale skin, and a fair hair, and doesn't speak a fluent Arabic - the network should provide a higher security.
For some reason I am not much concerned about the whereabouts of Richard Engel, or Ben Wedeman, who know the Egyptian street, know the mentality of the people and know what they can and can not do, although what they do puts them in risk, nevertheless.  For the same reason I wouldn't be afraid of Christiane Amanpour who ALWAYS had a scarf on her had when covering any events in the Arab countries.  This sort of preparations goes without saying In the country where the majority is Muslim, and there are NO women on the streets without the scarf on their heads (at least a scarf).
WHEN IN ROME, DO AS ROMANS DO.  Is it so hard to remember and apply this rule?  When walking the streets of Cairo, or Alexandria, my wife (although a brunette) had a scarf on her head no matter if we were going to a restaurant, or just sightseeing.  It just feels better when people do not look at you with disapproval.  It's their country - we are just guests (more or less invited and approved, but it goes only so far).
In the normal - every day life in Egypt, my wife and some of my friends were on multiple occasions mildly harassed (groped) by some Egyptian males.  It happens on the buses, it happens in some places where the distances between people shrink, or disappear.  It ALWAYS happens in a crowd.  In all Arab countries the society gives completely different rights to different genders.  Egypt isn't an exception - it's a MALE SOCIETY, where women are 'allowed' to be journalists, lawyers, doctors...  The key word being: "ALLOWED".  It is different than Western societies.  It is "different" and even if the change for the better comes (slowly), it's not going to happen overnight.
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What I said above doesn't make me any less furious and sad, knowing what happened to the CBS foreign correspondent Lara Logan, and many other woman correspondents.
The reports said:
"CBS correspondent Miss Logan endured a 'brutal and sustained' sexual assault and beating while covering the resignation of President Mubarak in Egypt.The mother-of-one had been surrounded by an angry mob of 200 people before the assault which is thought to have lasted up to half an hour. She had to be saved by a group of women and 20 Egyptian soldiers and was later taken to hospital."

Every correspondent knows the risk involved (or is supposed to know) in covering such events.  But we all know, that in our, so competitive world, where "information war" is strictly connected to the "ratings war" between the networks - in order to do the job right one is supposed to 'push the envelope' as far as it goes.  The networks expect more and more daring  reports, and commentaries.  The key worn here is 'daring'...  Some believe in their '9 lives'.  Some trust their instincts, and some simply loose the perspective, push too hard and fall victim...
Unfortunately such tragedies happen.  We loose quite a number of journalists, who are kidnapped, beaten, sexually violated... every year.
Sometimes it's just an accident... one of the elements of the job... Sometimes there is no way of protection...
But in the case of Lara Logan who suffered the most, or Anderson Cooper who was smacked around near Tahrir Sq, or Hala Gorani who was pushed against the fence and miraculously saved by one of the demonstrators - I BLAME THE NETWORKS FOR NOT PROVIDING INCREASED NUMBER OF SECURITY PERSONNEL  to protect highly exposed journalists.

It's also disgusting when some 'fellow journalists' suddenly accuse the victims of perpetrating the events themselves.  Unfortunately we heard such voices also during any "rape" trials - voices which blamed the 'victims' for bringing 'it' on themselves.  When such words come from the mouths of uncultured, uneducated people, we know that nothing can be done to prevent it...
In the case of the journalists who were harmed in Egypt such voices are uttered by the members of the same profession (!!!!!!!), the elite, if you will.  Let me introduce a few of these people with a confused moral standing, and vitriol attitude:
Debbie Schlussel Conservative political commentator, radio talk show host, columnist, and attorney (debbieschlussel.com) posted a picture of Miss Logan on her blog, under the headline: 'Islam Fan Lara Logan Gets a Taste of Islam' as well as 'Lara Logan’s Taste of Islamic Jew-Hatred'.  Yesterday Schlussel wrote: 'So sad, too bad, Lara.
'No one told her to go there. She knew the risks. And she should have known what Islam is all about. Now she knows. Or so we’d hope.  'Hope you’re enjoying the revolution, Lara! Alhamdilllullah [praise allah].'(quote after dailymail.co.uk)
Nir Rosen, a journalist and a fellow at New York University (resigned today) insensitively tweeted a very derogatory remarks:
“Lara Logan had to outdo Anderson,” Rosen Tweeted, referring to the Anderson who was punched in the head multiple times while covering the recent demonstrations in Egypt’s Tahrir Square.
“Yes yes it’s wrong what happened to her. Of course. I don’t support that. But it would have been funny if it happened to Anderson too,” he continued on Twitter, followed by a string of Tweets that were even more hurtful and disrespectful.
”Jesus Christ, at a moment when she is going to become a martyr and glorified we should at least remember her role as a major war monger”
“Look, she was probably groped like thousands of other women.”
Rush Limbaugh - I guess I do not have to introduce this conservative nitwit (on the Feb. 04) - "... I mean even two New York Times reporters were detained. Now this is supposed to make us feel what exactly? ... Are we supposed to feel outrage – I don’t feel any outrage over it. Are we supposed to feel anger – I don’t feel any anger over this. Do we feel happy? ..."
However, when word came later in his show that Fox News’ Greg Palkot was attacked, it didn’t seem so funny anymore.
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What happened to all these injured or just psychologically scarred journalists is appalling, but it's the risk they willingly take - we should be appreciative of that.  But providing them with no security in such a volatile environment is completely shortsighted and despicable.
I did not even want to summarize what I thought about the 'fellow' journalists who heartlessly attacked and ridiculed the victims of these attacks (it would have been un-civilized...).

Egypt - long road to Democracy...

Three days ago, when the Army announced taking the power in the country after ousting the Dictator,  the Tahrir Square exploded with the sudden JOY of the demonstrators.  The celebrations were unprecedented, the same way as unprecedented was the outcome of the uprising, the same way as unprecedented the uprising itself was.

It have been very difficult three weeks.  The demonstrations, the police and thugs attacks, released criminals, injuries, deaths, damage to the properties, peaceful voicing of the demands, ousting of the President...  While the nation smooths the roughed up feathers of Egypt, the crowd in the Tahrir Square literally smooths the square, removing the barricades, sweeping and cleaning the pavement from the damage and the debris of the revolution.  The people in their despair stood up to the regime, demanding the changes in the country where so many felt completely disenfranchised, where the corruption on all levels of the society disallowed the people to be proud of their country.  These people suddenly felt the joy of ownership of Egypt.

There are many young and educated people with the profound knowledge of the history, social relationships and the economical mechanisms. 

These people right now roll up their sleeves and clean the country from the debris, but also promise to clean the country form "all the trash" accumulated by the system in so many decades of the authoritarian regime.

Egypt faces the long and difficult process of normalization. The army is in control right now.  Both, the Cabinet and the Parliament have been dissolved.  The army set a time frame of their control - 6 months, or the democratic election (whatever comes first).  It is satisfactory to the protesters as well as approved by all the observers.  But we have to bear in mind that however popular, likable, and willing the Army is - it is the same Army which ruled "de facto" Egypt for already 60 years.  As much as we all would like to believe that the Army's and the people's goal are the same, the army has been responsible for a lot of 'unpopular' facts which have happened in Egypt throughout the years.  The Army has been the armed arm of the regime.

It requires the leap of faith to trust the Army to lead the country to Democracy.  Many protesters in Tahrir Square have came to this realization  while the whole country was celebrating.

In order for the real democracy being able to succeed in Egypt, the whole system must be restructured.  Since we live in the NOT IDEAL world the reality will call for a numerous compromises.  The compromises which will be acceptable by some , and completely unacceptable by others.

Let's see for a moment what are the features of the system which have to be restructured, or completely replaced:

1.  Police force - has to be reviewed, issued the new rules of conduct - some commanders have to be replaced (what do you do with the demoted commanders who have the blood on their hands?) - police force has to be paid more, so 'shake up' is not the only way to survive for a policeman.

2.  The new Constitution has to be formed - probably some paragraphs have to be determined in a national referendum.  The Supreme court and a specially formed Commission has to oversee the process.

3.   New (and old) parties have to be revived and their representatives have to form the Parliament and a new Government afterwords (in the general elections).

4.   There are plenty of Big Businesses who were extremely supportive to the previous Government (and they were awarded all the lucrative contracts by the previous Government) - this relationship has to be reviewed and probably many CEOs removed from the equation.  Many of these companies do not deserve to get the public contracts.  The old system was built on bribes and favoritism.

5.   Egypt is not a poor country, but it's people are poor.  The recent years saw Egypt growing just below 10% annually - the population hasn't seen a "piaster" of it (an Egyptian "penny").  The distribution of the profits from the industry and the tourism has to be changed (I am not suggesting any socialist approach, they are plenty of ways to do it in the free market economy).

6.   The last is probably the most controversial issue - President Mubarak's family wealth is estimated at $40-70 BILLION.  I do not see how it was feasible in the country like Egypt - anywhere for that matter.  These founds have to return to be used in rebuilding the country.  The Swiss banks already issued a decree freezing all the 'known' account of the Mubarak's family.  The key word here is "known".  I am sure that the gross of this fortune is in the proxy accounts which are simply inaccessible.

The democratic process is 'per se' vulnerable, to any corrupting forces.  The whole revolution while unfolding on the TV screens didn't show any, even a single Anti-American, or Anti-Israeli outburst.  No flag burning, no extreme religious calls.  We witnessed the unexpected by many conservative pundits - completely secular, educated, peaceful call for Democracy. 

The process which started now, the process much more difficult than the revolution itself, will be watched very carefully by all, both the West, as well as other Arab countries in the region.  I am sure that Iran, or even the extreme forces in Saudi Arabia will try to steal the momentum and change the direction of the evolution to their side. 

But Egyptian people, to the surprise of many observers, have proved already that what some feared, and the VP Suleiman dared to say openly ("The Egyptians are not ready for democracy") IS SIMPLY NOT TRUE AT ALL. 

The American Government was in a very difficult position, considering all the pressures of the allied Regimes in the region.  Many criticized it for complacency, or dragging their feet (I am myself one of the people who criticized).  Either it was accidental (considering the Ambassador Weisner issue), or well planned and executed - the USA backed the People of Egypt in the right moment, strongly enough to make a difference, but at the same time not to be accused of trying to reshape the Middle East to our liking.  Good job, Mr. President.

What is more important for me personally is that the USA has gained a friend in a form of the Egyptian People as expressed by Wael Ghonim  in a TV interview and confirmed by many tweets I received.

The long road ahead - it will be (for sure) a bumpy ride, but the future looks bright (so far).

Social Media unstoppable power...

It was exhilarating to follow the developments of the Egyptian Revolution (It wasn't the first one of the sort.  Let's not forget - Tunisia had a successful revolt a few weeks earlier).

Nevertheless it was breath taking to observe the unfolding, in the lightning speed, events.  The Social Media made it possible.  

When the Communist Block was crumbling I was already in the USA, and only the newspapers, and occasionally the TV brought the news of the slow and often bloody progress of the unrest.

To the observer, they had a tremendous power, like a steam roller, but they lacked the dynamics we witnessed in the latest revolts. 

On the February 11, when the Mubarak's government was no more - I twitted:

I LOVE THE SMELL OF MY iPHONE IN THE MORNING - IT SMELLS LIKE... VICTORY - tribute to Social Media #Egypt.

It was truly this technology: Twitter and Facebook  which changed forever the reality in the Middle East.  We have to understand that it was a system with a very well oiled suppression apparatus, with more than 1.5 Million people on the payroll of the Interior Ministry - the army of thugs, informers and the plainclothes.  It was a system which owned and controlled the media in 100%. 

And the system, as described above, fell like a house of cards in result of the created by Wael Ghonim Facebook page: “We Are All Khaled Said” in the memory of the murdered by the police blogger.  This page became the most viewed and subscribed to page on the Internet in the Middle East.  This page - this technology suddenly showed the people in the whole region, that the People had the real and unquestionable power which could no longer be suppressed and could ignite the biggest social explosion known so far, given just a spark.

The needed spark came from Tunisia when the underemployed college graduate who had to earn for living as a street vendor, who was arrested for selling goods without permit, reached the end of his rope and set himself on fire.  This spark (no pun intended) spread itself like a wild fire throughout the whole region via millions of tweets on Twitter. 

All the necessary information about the time of the planned demonstrations, the intended location, and all other info was received by the millions of Twitter account holders.  At certain point the Mubarak's regime thought that it might have gained an upper hand if they had closed the Internet.  It was too late.  The Genie was out of the bottle.  The technology allowed the people to get around that obstacle and 'tweet by proxy' using the foreign telephone numbers. 

Probably no one, in the most far fetched predictions, anticipated that this little tool, just a 'step up' from 'texting', a tool used by a 6-years old (to tell "the world" about the color of the sky reflection in the lake water), would be the most important tool of the fight for Democracy.   But it is.

As I mentioned: the Genie is out of the bottle...  The demonstrations sweep through the cities of many countries in the region, but not only.  The Chinese authorities already banned (the technology allows for censoring the Twitter) the hash tags associated with the Egyptian revolt.  Is it going to save them?  In the XXI century the flow of information is unstoppable.  Time will show how far they are willing to evolve their totalitarian system giving in to the people's demands. 

I myself started using Twitter (@AIR_BLOG) very short time ago.  It's not a tool for everybody.  Tweeting the messages about the 'celebrity sightings' is (in my humble opinion) a waste of the bandwidth.  But we live in a free country - so use it any way you feel fit. 

But USE IT.  It may prove to be a life saver...

New Egypt !!!

Mubarak's regime is no more !!!

Vice President Omar Suleiman has just announced:
PRESIDENT MUBARAK HAS STEPPED DOWN - THE MILITARY SUPREME COUNCIL HAS TAKEN POWER IN EGYPT IN THEIR HANDS and will lead the country to the stabilization.

The 30 years long oppression by the completely disconnected from reality Dictator is over.  Thanks to social media, it took just 18 days to achieve what took in other countries months or years of unrest.

WE ARE WITH THE EGYPTIAN NATION WITH ALL OUR HEARTS.

Egyptian President's parallel world... lost in translation...

17th day of the protest is over.  It was a day of hope, brutally extinguished by the denial of the President in his TV speech.

This day of hope started from the remarkable occurrence:  some Army commanders went to the protesters gathered on the Tahrir Square and announced that "all the protesters demands were going to be fulfilled tonight".  Following this statement scenes on the State TV showed the Military Supreme Council having an emergency session (what happens every blue moon).  Back in America, some time later, during the Congressional Hearing, the new head of the CIA Leon Panetta stated that according to the CIA sources we might expect Mubarak stepping down today.  The same message transpired from the Obama's speech at the University of Northern Michigan this afternoon.  The deal was done..., or was it?

Egyptian Army issued an official communique - in which they announced making the necessary steps to stabilize the situation in the country... They promised the second communique... but not delivered....

Quite delayed, Mubarak spoke to the people via the state owned TV.  Instead the farewell speech, the anxious crowd was fed with the condescending speech of the "Ruler for Life".  He announced passing the power (according to the constitutional requirements) to the Vice President Suleiman.  Mubarak retained some powers to himself: power to dissolve the Parliament, power to dissolve the Cabinet, power to call for the constitutional amendments.

Mubarak tried to play the familiar patriotic tune, referring to himself as a father figure to all the Egyptians.  He blamed again the foreign influences for all the "problems" Egypt had in the recent days.  He accused again the satellite news organizations for inciting the protest, dismissing any responsibility of himself and his government...  As a Nation's Father he condescendingly dismissed any demands of the "misguided Youth" and stressed that the stabilization of the situation might be achieved only through... HIM.

Following the President's appearance, the Vice President (now with almost full Presidential powers) added some "oil to the fire" emphasizing the effectiveness of the "partial reforms" and a good will of the "Father" President.  He also pushed a blame for the situation toward the Western (foreign in general) media.

The crowd stood flabbergasted. 

To the observer like me the current scenario starts showing vivid elements of the serious split in the Egyptian Apparatus.  The split between the current civilian government (well, not that much civilian, since both Mubarak and Suleiman were the Army generals) and the Military Supreme Council.  I understand that it's a pure speculation, but it looks like the Army (not Only the People) was surprised by the sudden, President's defiance. 

This by itself doesn't promise any positive outcome - it's well known that the Generals are the subjects of the preferential treatment in Egypt.  They do enjoy higher salaries, respect, better housing, other perks almost unimaginable in the democracies like ours...  It's in their well vested interest to support the regime.

There is however an element of the story which is a bit baffling.  A day before, the security forces guarding the access to the State run TV station spared no effort on reinforcing the barbed wire barricades in front of the building - in anticipation of perhaps "a violent response to the news next day"...  Should we believe it was a coincidence?

Now returns the same question, asked already several times since the first outburst of the protest 18 days ago:  what is the army going to do now?  The impasse caused by the defiance of the president, who is so disconnected from the reality (or at least OUR reality) that by himself brings the whole country to a standstill, requires the Army to take a stand.  Everybody understands, that in the totalitarian regimes, not only the police and a secret service are the originators of the repressions and growing disillusionment of the common men, but that the army plays in this process a difficult to disregard role. 

The latter was proved even in these last 18 days by the detainees belonging to the media - many of them have stories placing the army officers in a very unflattering light of being the executors of the tortures performed on the unsuspecting victims, 

Nevertheless, the Army might be the only force in the country, which is "sane" and organized enough to know that this may be their moment of glory if they offer their protective hand to the People instead of clinging to already shamed, disgraced and completely senile President and his Apparatus.

If they do not openly back up the protesting millions, and choose the side of the Government - observing the growing constantly numbers of the people gathering in Tahrir Sq and in front the Parliament - they will have no choice but open fire to the peacefully manifesting their disapproval people.

So far the peaceful protest, the peaceful expression of the grievances, was a proof that this method is a way which may produce the long lasting solution.  If this kind of thinking prevails - it will by itself constitute the biggest imaginable blow against the policies and the rhetoric of the Al Qaeda.  The secular society in Egypt by choosing the non-violent way of solving social and political disputes defeats the Al Qaeda in the most decisive manner.

However, If the blood is spilled in any significant manner to suppress the uprising, if the army is ordered to shoot, or again the army of "thugs" is employed to "take care" of the unrest - the Al Qaeda rhetoric will win.

I believe that by not speaking strongly and decisively for the People and AGAINST the President Mubarak, the Western governments (including the American) might find themselves in the reality in which Egypt becomes eventually infested by the radical thought.  It would be a fertile ground, in which the Al Qaeda might flourish. 

So far Egyptian people repeatedly rejected the religious extremism leading to the violence.  The current uprising surprised every observer by the non-violent and mature way of expressing such a long rooted disapproval of the system. 

The West should do everything in their powers (and I am sure we have some leverage going far beyond $1.3 Billion in military aid) to encourage the action of the People and influence the Army to do the only honorable thing to do - back up the People in the Tahrir Square.

Egypt - the New Democracy?

17th day of the protest.  What yesterday was an "unprecedented" amount of people streaming to, and filling up the Tahrir Square, today is even greater.  There is no doubt, that this uprising is on it's way to the Victory.  Liberation Square (Tahrir Sq.) will earn it's name based on the unfolding events in front of our eyes.

Today, at 5 PM of the local time, the army announced that it was stepping in to stabilize the country.  For the last couple of days the VP Suleiman was 'threatening' the demonstrators that if they push too hard, the military coup might be the only option.  Although the army is revered in the the Egyptian society,  the protesters do not want to change the Mubarak's regime for the regime run by the Generals (behind the scenes run that way from the 1952 when the King Farouk was overturn).
What would have been probably the fulfillment of the people's demands 2 weeks ago - the President Mubarak stepping down (expected to be announced today) - today is only one of the top serious demands for restructuring of the whole system.  The disgraced police system has to be dismounted and refreshed.  The ruling National Democratic Party which shamed itself by promoting the police state, accepting the emergency law, and all the human right abuses springing from it, has to be dismounted and either restructured or replaced by a host of new parties.
People who were the prominent players in the current, repressive system (including the VP Suleiman), are completely not acceptable by the street.

Is the VP Suleiman able to run the country putting aside his well trained and habitual apparatus of intimidation and repression?  If the street accepts him, how safe are the members of opposition in the months after the Tahrir Sq. is returned to it's "traffic jam" function?  They can be picked by the police one by one, since the polarized by the revolution society knows well all the opposition faces.

In half an hour the President Mubarak is supposed to speak live on the Egyptian State TV.  Is he going to announce his resignation?  Has he instigated the changes to the constitution allowing the VP to take the power and run the country until the general elections?  How is the street going to react to the 'partial' changes.  How patient are the people on the street.

As proven by history over and over, the Revolution (however difficult and bloody it might be) is the easy part of the transformation of the country.