Libya - stalemate or preparation for a decisive action...

It's been two weeks since the beginning of the Libyan Revolution.  We still have very little of the reliable information about the state of affairs inside this desert country.  There are only a few American reporters like Nick Robertson, Ben Wedeman, and Richard Engel who travel through the North part of the country where the most of the fight is taking place.  There is a bit more extensive coverage of the ground by the Al Jazeera correspondents.  All together the information we receive is, at best, sketchy.
As of Friday, March 04 Tripoli is an unquestionable stronghold of Gaddafi.  Although with the skirmishes between the Gaddafi's army and the rebels on daily basis, the streets of Tripoli are controlled by the dictator's loyalists, and almost deserted, since the inhabitants, fearing for their life do not dare to step out of their houses.
It's not the case in other cities.
The rebels established themselves, starting in Benghazi, Tobruk, in most of the cities of the East.  Farther to the West, the cities of Ajdabiya, Al Brega and Ras Lanuf are being contested.  Both sides repeatedly claim to control them.  The situation changes on hourly basis.  It doesn't come as a surprise, since the Al Brega is one of the biggest oil terminals for the Libyan export.  The only big center in the West in control of the rebels is a city of Misrata.  Also the continuing fights occur in a located 50 km to the West of Tripoli - Zawiya (as well an oil terminal), where today at least 30 people lost their lives and hundreds have been wounded while the army attempted to regain control of the center of the city.
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On March 01, The UN General Assembly unanimously suspended Libya from the Human Rights Council.  The economical sanctions, and travel ban on the members of the regime have been implemented.  "These actions should send a strong and important message," declared U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon. "There is one community and those who commit crimes against humanity will be punished...time is of the essence, thousands of lives are at stake. It is our collective duty to stand for human rights."
In February the Arab League suspended Libya's membership after the "martyr" speech by Colonel Gaddafi.  Later on, the same League rejected the option of any foreign intervention in Libya, making the issue of the "no-fly zone" even more difficult and risky.  However, on March 03 the League revised it's position discussing imposing the "no-fly zone" over Libya in coordination with the African Union.
In the meantime the aircraft carrier, an amphibious assault ship, and a command vessel of the US 6th fleet moved to the vicinity of the Libyan coast.
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The Western World was caught 'off guard' by the Democratic Revolution of 2011 in so many of the Arab Countries.  However, the growing discontent of the suppressed by the totalitarian regimes masses is nothing new.  It brings to mind the European Spring of Nations of 1848, when there were a series of popular uprisings and revolutions. For the most part they were brutally suppressed.  What is interesting is the similarities in causes that brought them about.  It was as well, the massive effort on the part of the people to throw off autocratic rule.
And this is where the similarities end.  The era is different, the flow of information is massive and instant, the social awareness of the people is developed much better, the World is watching...
The greatest difference lays in speed of the changes.  The Tunisian, and Egyptian uprisings happened so fast, that the World didn't have a time to react properly.  The inertia of the World's Powers (or let's call it for what it really is - typical "dragging of legs") allowed the revolution to progress by itself in both of these countries.  Thankfully, the outcome of the revolt in both cases was surprisingly promising and surprisingly secular.
The World had treated all the Arabs condescendingly, as "social infants".  There was a talk about spreading democracy, but in reality the prevailing position was that "the Arabs were not ready for democracy", and "if given a choice they would chose radicalization".
So far the Arab nations who initiated the revolution proved this theory completely wrong.  But we were talking so far about relatively peaceful uprisings in the countries with a long history of the national identity, and the advanced societies...

In the case of Libya the situation is completely different.  The Libyan Dictator who has been in power for 42 years didn't allow the Libyan society develop in a normal way.  Crushing the opposition with an iron fist he created the society in which the personal survival became the sole life's goal.  Cleverly juggling the "carrot and a stick" he created the society living their lives "day by day" without thinking of the future.  When Libya became an oil producing country, creating the tremendous revenues (and fortunes for the ruling 'family' and it's cronies), Gaddafi decided that letting his own people to develop the Middle Class would be too dangerous, and "imported" most of the medical staff from other countries (in great degree from Russia and other countries of the Eastern Block), and most of the professional technical staff to run his industries, from the West.  He relied almost completely on the foreign workers in his oil industry (employing hundreds of thousands of Indian, Pakistani, Chinese, Vietnamese, and also Egyptian workers).
When the unrest started, all of this "foreign work force" along with the doctors and nurses abandoned their posts returning home in a massive exodus, leaving Libya's industries severely understaffed. What is more dangerous, the hospitals and emergency services immediately suffered the "staff vacuum", unprecedented so far.

All the countries of the region are different from one another.  Because of that, all these countries require completely different approach and treatment.
We have already learned that this 2011 Spring of Nations is a 'wild fire'  spreading fast and in unpredictable way.  Knowing it's fast pace, it's obvious that the 'normal', traditional  way of reacting to the presented challenges IS NOT ADEQUATE.

It's very true in the case of Libya.
Libyan Dictator (however tragically ridiculous and deranged he is) has learned to read the Libyan people well.  He knows that making stand from time to time, controlling Tripoli and making sporadic "reminder' rides on the liberated by the rebels territory, creates the fearful scenario in his people's minds.  He knows that leaving the rebel centers 'alone' to a certain degree may cause the deterioration in the rebels' ranks.  He and his son Saith deny any rebel activities, any loss of the territory to the rebel forces.  Saith, in his interview with Anita McNaught (Al Jazeera) denied completely having ANY foreign bank accounts, ridiculing the "seizure" of Gaddafi's funds abroad. This act of defiance is repeatedly transmitted by the government owned TV channel.  Since there is no working Internet, no telephone service, the isolated pockets of the anti-Gaddafi's forces are constantly misinformed.  As reported by the reporters in the field, the revolution has lost the momentum in the East part of the country.  This loss of the momentum, alone with misinformation, and lack of the International ACTIVE support creates the situation in which the survival of the current, inhumane Dictatorship is more, NO COMA and more feasible.
Gaddafi's regime is already condemned by the World's Powers.  It's condemned by all the people.  And yet, if the strong, fast (it is already late) measures are not implemented soon, Gaddafi may regain the control of most of the country.  In his diabolical plan he may even, for some period of time, isolate the rebel centers in the East, slowly stabilizing the situation in the West.  He may simply 'bleed' the rebels, and their enthusiasm out.  These people, however passionate in their act of fighting against the hated dictator, have no military training, nor the supplies.  How long can they continue the struggle without a visible end, if not supported by an outside force?
Gaddafi's and his regime is not afraid any more of the judgment.  He has crossed the point of no return.  There is already the Crimes Against Humanity investigation "on stand by".  He and his apparatus will be brought to justice.  It's only a question of time.
Gaddafi has the 'upper hand', now just playing with time, and counting on the limited "attention span" of the 'ad hoc' created rebel army.  He will fall sooner or later, but if the World doesn't get unified behind any form of the intervention, the 'status quo' may continue for months ahead.  A lot of people will perish, and...  again we (in the West) loose the face.

America is in a very delicate and difficult situation.  We can't stretch our military, running already two wars.  We can't make a move unilaterally, since the Arab countries would immediately strongly oppose that (a specter of the two wars doesn't help).  It's already known that even the rebels would not  accept "our boots on the ground", so by default we would be limited to the air operation.  America is the champion of Democracy (no one can deny that).  At this moment this Champion is called upon for help, by the people of Libya, people fighting with a brutal regime, regime with no respect to any human or social values.  The people in the rebel strongholds count on us.  People in Tripoli, fearing for their life, count on us.  The World is watching...

There is of course an option of arming the rebels.  Although it never worked as expected in the past.  Knowing that these weapons may end up in the hands of mercenaries, or being repossessed by the government forces doesn't make it easier.  It would be considered an intervention after all.

So, until the World agrees on any forceful intervention - the only viable action America can be involved in now (and should be involved in soon) is parachuting the food and medical supplies to all the rebel pockets, providing sustenance, and boosting their morale at the same time.  I would also gladly see a hospital-ship standing in a vicinity of Benghazi or Misrata allowing for medical evacuation of the seriously wounded, from the "rebel owned" cities.  For now - a purely humanitarian mission, like the one which is already in progress (the food and supply delivery to the refugee camps on the Libian borders in which we ARE involved).

I wouldn't disregard completely the option of recognizing the rebel, provisional government in Benghazi as a legitimate government of the New Libya.  It might be a sufficient morale boost for the fighting, and for us - the way of getting out of a 'diplomatic ditch' when dealing with the 'illegitimate' new UN Libyan ambassador (appointed yesterday by Gaddafi).

Libya - the fall of Gaddafi on the horizon...

Libyan revolution is already a week old.  Hundreds of thousands of people protest on the streets of all the major cities of the country.  Although the protesters themselves are peaceful, they are met with the ruthless force of the apparatus.  In most of the countries of the region, army is the organization which 'de facto' is in charge of these countries with the regimes trusting and relying on it.  It's not the case in Libya.  The Colonel Gaddafi is closely guarded by the 'elite' forces, who directly answer to him and his sons.  They are loyal, well paid, and received the preferential treatment throughout the whole period after the Revolution.  This 'elite' forces are supported by a huge number of the mercenaries from the neighboring African countries.  Gaddafi always relied on the mercenary soldiers, since they are easier controlled (if paid) and would do anything they are asked for, including shooting to the unarmed demonstrators.
The army itself, although in general, loyal to the dictator, is not very likely to fulfill the orders to kill the compatriots. 

Since the very beginning of the uprising the foreign mercenaries used violence against the people on the streets without hesitation, shooting them with 'live' ammunition, clubbing them and chopping their limbs with the machetes.  Every day brought several new deaths, but didn't pacify the people, nor their will to overthrow the Dictator. 

As I mentioned in the previous post, the brutal, and unlawful response of the regime caused many Libyan diplomats to review their allegiance to Gaddafi, and as a result forced them to openly disassociate themselves from the current government. 

The violence against the protesters grew every day, culminating in (as reported in tweets - but not confirmed otherwise) usage of the helicopter gunships, and airplanes to shoot protesters with "increased efficiency" of the carnage.  The escalation of the repressions resulted in resignation of at least one army general, as well as refusal of carrying the orders by many soldiers and fighter planes pilots.  Yesterday 2 fighter planes defected to Malta.  The pilots asked for asylum and confessed that they were ordered to bomb and shoot the protesters in Banghazi where the opposition to the regime was the strongest.  Other pilots who were allegedly ordered bombing the oil fields in the East of the country also refused to do so and destroyed the planes, bailing out of them on the parachutes. 

After a week of fighting the Eastern city of Benghazi and the surrounding areas have been "liberated" by the revolutionary forces.  The huge contingent of the army in this Mediterranean city also defected to the "people's" side.  The provisional government has been formed immediately, and according to the reporting Libyans, the communal services started working better than under the rules of the Dictator.  The same was said about the stability of the electric power supply (even thought the management of the power plant was ordered by the regime to cut off the power).

Yesterday afternoon the Colonel Muammar al-Gaddafi showed himself on the state TV "performing" one of his endless and partially incoherent speeches.  Contrary to previous speculations about him parting the country and escaping to Venezuela, he spoke from the Tripoli fortified compound which was bombed by the American airplanes in 1986, and which he kept unchanged since then as a proof of the defiance.  He still considers himself as a great statesman, the leader of never ending revolution.  He considers himself to be the man who is supposed to unify the countries of Africa in one powerful force.  He had a dream (and tried it years ago, failing) to merge Tunisia and Egypt with Libya. 
In the yesterday's speech, lasting nearly an hour he presented himself as the only person, the only force who can hold the country together.  He exclaimed: Muammar Gaddafi is the GLORY.  He claimed that hes was still loved by the whole population, not only for what he did for the Revolution, but for what he still does for the people.  He reminded all the glorious events in the history of the country, like liberation from the Italian occupation, defying the USA and all Western countries, in short taking credit for all things which ever happened. 
He accused, of course, the Western powers, as well as some Arab countries (like Qathar) for inciting the unrest.  He accused the youth to be misguided, heavily drugged and paid by the enemies to destroy the country which has been so good for them.
At last, he read from The Green Book (Revolutionary Laws formed and collected by him in the days of Revolution) and quoted that all the transgressions qualify to be punished by execution. Let it be noted that Libya has never had a Constitution.  Gaddafi and his Green Book have been the source of the SUPREME LAW.
He ended by strongly threatening all who would not cease the revolt and go home.  He called at the same time the people to "raise against the perpetrators" of the treason and form the popular committees to "clean" the streets from the "destroyers" of the Libyan way of life... 

Apparently defiant, and apparently threatening with the escalation of the carnage, Libyan leader still has a completely baseless conviction that this uprising is something which "will pass soon, and everything will return to the 'status quo'".  After 42 years in power he simply refuses to understand that the world has changed.  He refuses to acknowledge that because of many factors (and the spread of the information and the social media is only one of them), self awareness of the people, and their social education changed to the extent, that once ignited such an uprising can produce only one effect - toppling of the old, merciless and hated regime.

By Wednesday, the rebel forces were in the possession of more than 1/3 of the country (according to the most conservative reports).  In the liberated parts of the country the rebels kept finding the execution sites with the big number of killed civilians and the army personnel, with their hands tied at their backs.
By the end of the day the revolutionaries had in their possession even the Eastern city of Misratah.  The army from the liberated Benghazi released a statement to the Gaddafi's tribe, making obvious that the problem is only associated with the Colonel, not his tribe - avoiding the possibility of the tribal war. 

It's suspected that the only remaining strongholds of the Dictator is the city of Tripoli itself.  The sporadic reports from the city reveal an extraordinary level of fear among the people who are still subjected to the atrocities of the regime. 
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Libya, being an oil producing country, employed a huge number of the foreign work force.  There have been a huge number of American personnel (diplomatic and commercial) working there.  Many other countries, like Egypt, Tunisia, Turkey and others had their citizens in the big numbers working there for years.  An unrest like we observe in Libya, and the brutal response of the regime, create situation in which the logistics of the evacuation are enormous.  All the involved counties tried to recover their citizens by the airplanes, but it proved to be a very difficult, or partially impossible because of the state of disrepair of the airports and/or inefficiency of the Libyan air control.  Other countries (including the USA) sent ferries to Tripoli to save their citizens.  However the high sea  prevented the departure of these ships.

After more than a week of the NO STATEMENT from the US government, Barack Obama spoke on Wednesday summarizing what the whole world already stated:
(...) The violence in Libya is "outrageous." (...) This violence must stop. (...) East and West, voices are being raised together against oppression. (...) The U.N. is watching. (...) Let me be clear: the change that is being driven is by the people of the region. (...) The United States will continue to stand up for freedom.

However, beside the above, generic "condemnation" of the regime, Obama revealed the obvious threat to the defiant Dictator. Without getting in any details he said:
"(...)Secretary Clinton and I have asked Bill Burns, our Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, to make several stops in Europe and the region to intensify our consultations with allies and partners about the situation in Libya.
I’ve also asked Secretary Clinton to travel to Geneva on Monday, where a number of foreign ministers will convene for a session of the Human Rights Council. There she’ll hold consultations with her counterparts on events throughout the region and continue to ensure that we join with the international community to speak with one voice to the government and the people of Libya. (...)".

Beside the humanitarian crisis, and the "genocide" (as the atrocities were named by some politicians), the prolonged situation in which the regime behaves completely unpredictably, creates a very difficult and explosive situation.  The possibility of blowing up of the oil fields, and the oil pipe line, which may be carried out by the regime in a desperate gesture of a vindictive spitefulness would be a dangerous blow to the stability of the oil supply to Europe as well as major factor pushing even higher the prices of the crude oil on the world's markets. 

However, thanks to the unified action of the people of Libya, and the Western stand, It seams that the Libyan revolution may have a chance to be ended in the nearest future, hopefully without any additional loss of the human life.
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Hopefully Libya will soon join Tunisia and Egypt in their efforts to create the NEW, democratic political structures which will give the base to the full and meaningful lives of their people.

Libya - death toll rises...

If we all lived in a Cartoon World the story of the Colonel Gaddafi and his 'stunts' throughout his presidency would be one of the funniest ones.  However we do not live in a Cartoon reality, and even in the domains of the mad and deranged Dictators the people's bleed the real blood, and all the dead people do not get revived. 
Colonel Muammar Gaddafi who has been Libya's Dictator for 42 years provided the spectators with a very questionable and consistently idiotic "entertainment" all the time.  The farce continued for decades every time the "megalomaniac demi-god" had any public appearance.  He was a master of reinventing the history, accusing all the Western countries of completely ridiculous crimes.  He was a "master" of all arts and sciences, and "taught" the doctors how to perform surgeries, taught actors how to act, painters how to paint...  In this narcissistic self admiration he joined some other Dictators like Iraq's Hussein, and North Korea's Kim Pyong-il...  He talked "trush" to the Western Leaders for years at the same time letting the terrorist training camps function on the Libyan territoriy.  He has been ridiculed, bombed, sanctioned against, ridiculed again...  He, and his system survived all that and finally in 1999 he had a "change of heart", and became the ally of the West in the "war on terror".  He was still ridiculous and incoherent in his speeches (like his 95 minuets long rant in the UN less than 2 years ago, in 2009), but stopped openly acting against the Western Civilization.

All, what I described above would be hilarious if it wasn't so tragic.
Unfortunately, we can't even guess the number of the people killed in 4 decades by the Libyan apparatus of terror.  What we can estimate is only what has been unfolding if front of our eyes in these few days since the unrest stared in Tripoli, Benghazi, and other cities.  The tweeted reports about the casualties on the streets reached more than 300 dead and thousand or more wounded.  It's difficult to confirm them since the Internet is not working, and the hospitals do not keep the track of the brought victims.
A son (second oldest) of Libyan leader Colonel Muammar Gaddafi has admitted the country's military over-reacted when dealing with protesters.  He is the more moderate son of the Dictator, who rejected the father's policies in the past.  But, speaking on Libyan TV, Sayf al-Islam accused the opposition of trying to break up the country.  He said troops had opened fire on protesters because they were not trained to handle civil unrest.  He said that "some" people had been killed, but accused foreign media of exaggerating the violence.  He said that reports of high death tolls were "imaginary".  He continued accusing the whole unrest to be a work of foreign paid thugs (on drugs) who wanted to split Libya in 3 sections - Libyan Arab Emirates (?!).  He denied any accusations of using the foreign mercenaries against the protesters - contrary to the multiple reports of the witnesses.
He warned the nation that at this time there were only 2 options for tomorrow:  stop the bloodshed and return to peace, or this would end up in years of a civil war and would be much worse than Iraq, or Yugoslavia  etc.  He threatened that the sedition would be "destroyed" and said:"we will not give up any inch of the Libyan territory".
He dwelled for a long time on the possible devastating result of the unrest, unavailing in front of the spectators the diabolical scenario of the foreign (European and American) military intervention to prevent losing the Libyan supply of oil, and as a result occupying the country for years, depriving the people of the "freedoms they enjoy now".

Libya is a country of about 6 million people, functioning in a mostly tribal society.  It's predominantly a desert country with the oil fields in the center part of the territory.
The tribal leaders in the areas where the oil is being explored have set the ultimatum threatening closing the fields if the government continued with the violence toward the demonstrators.

The Libyan envoy to the Arab League left his post in the protest to the brutal crackdown on the protesters.  The same did the Libyan Ambassador to India.  It's obvious that even among the Libyan official representatives there are people who do not condone the repressive actions of the Colonel Gaddafi and his regime.
Some, growing in frequency reports from the Eastern, industrial city of Benghasi (1.5 million inhabitants), where so far the most of the deaths occurred, claim that the Army joined the protesters and the city is now in the hands of the demonstrators.
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How is the situation in Libya going to unfold?  It seems that Libya has passed the point of no return.  It seems, that the last days of the Dictator are approaching.  Unfortunately, the peaceful solution is slipping out of reach, especially when the Non-Libyan mercenaries are used against the Libyan citizens.  The Dictator's son promises didn't leave any uncertainty.  The regime will try every tool in their disposal to return to the 'status quo' (however artificial, and short lived might be ). 
The condemnation of the violence by all the Western government doesn't seem to have any effect.

Egypt - a week Anniversary of ending a 30 years lasting regime... other countries...

Thousands of demonstrators gathered in Tahrir Square in the center of Cairo in celebration of the 1 week Anniversary of ousting the president Mubarak and his cronies.
The jubilation mood is overwhelming.  There is also a more concerned note in the undertone of this happy activities - to remind the Army who is in power in Egypt right now, of all the promises related to leading the country to Democracy.  It is not the same, complacent Egypt the whole World got used to throughout the decades.  The people of Egypt who in great degree are young and educated know exactly what they want.  The movement which changed the country in a peaceful revolution we all observed, is still leaderless, but the new political life is being created, and simmers under the surface.  Tweets from Cairo prove the completely new, proud attitude of the "new owners" of Egypt.
More and more voices demand the criminal investigation against the members of the Mubarak's government, and Mubarak himself.  A few former ministers are already detained by the Army in the prisons with increased security.

While the Egyptians celebrate their new lease on freedom, most of the Arab countries experience the unprecedented turmoils. 

Tunisia, who started this 'wild fire' is far from being stable. Former regime was a long time ally of the USA in the "war on terror" (ousted president - unrest started on economical/social basis). 

Algeria, suffers waves of the unrest - clashes with the security forces (the unrest started on economical/social basis).

Libya, run for 40 odd years by the Colonel Muammar Gaddafi is swept with the protests.  Most of the demonstrations and clashes occurred outside of Tripoli.
Some reports talk about the as many as 20 protesters killed in Benghazi alone in clashes with the Police. In Al Baida, the third biggest city of the country the sporadic clashes continue since Wednesday.   At the same time in Tripoli the supporters of the "Revolution Leader - Colonel Gaddafi" demonstrate the unshaken trust in the Government.  In all the countries of the region the  apparatus has been built in a very similar way - based on very well maintained and efficient security forces and "countless" number of paid thugs.  We all learned about their swift responses to the uprising in Egypt.  For decades this country was on the list of the terror supporters.  However in the last few years it's megalomaniac Leader "made peace" with the US and even helped with the "extraordinary renditions"(demands of the protesters include the ouster of the Col. Gaddafi and the economical/social reforms).

Yemen, a poor country on the Southern end of the Arabian Peninsula, is mostly tribal society.  It's president - Ali Abdullah Saleh has ruled this country for more than 3 decades.  A valued ally of the US in the "war on terror".  The population organized the strong demonstrations almost coinciding with the Egyptian uprising.  The security forces responded with the tear gas and the rubber bullets.  There are noted fatalities.  The government tried to negotiate some concessions, promising that Saleh wouldn't run in the 2013 elections.  As expected, this window dressing couldn't satisfy the protesters (demands of the protesters include the ouster of the president and the economical/social reforms).

Bahrain, the country about which the most of the Americans have been oblivious so far, suddenly jumped in the center of the stage and into the news reports.  A small island country on the Western shore of the Persian Gulf inhabited by roughly 1.23 million people, of which 666 thousand are non-nationals.  The country is an absolute monarchy headed by the King - Shaikh Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa.  The economy is based on exploitation of natural resources - oil and pearls.  Native population is mostly Shia, but the ruling family (also part of the government) is Sunni.  Most of the non-nationals are the migrant workers in great degree Indian and Pakistani.  The Bahrain native Shia population, in such a close proximity of Iran is considered by some observers as a dangerous combination.  Hence the world's quiet approval of the oppressive rules of the Sunni ruling Family, for years...
This little Island is also the home of the US 5th Fleet - which by itself makes Bahrain strategically crucial to the interests of the USA - and makes it a valued ally.
Several reports from the capital city Manama described the government forces mercilessly crushing on the demonstrators using the tear gas, rubber bullets, and later steel pellets and life ammunition.  There were deaths reported, however the officially reported number of fatalities is not proportional to the confirmed, sporadic death reports.  There is a justified suspicion of the death toll being much higher, than officially reported.  I understand that in such a complicated geo-political situation, reforms come at a very high price.  The protesters, unfortunately were not given a choice.  In order to force the government into the negotiation of the social and economical reforms, the protesters had to get to the streets and demonstrate.  Unfortunately, the government, promising the reforms when the country calms down, unleashed the security forces on the peaceful demonstrators.  One of them asked by a CNN correspondent if he would consider sacrificing his life in this protest, responded: "Of course. That is why I am here..."

We should not forget or overlook the new developments from the newly established "post-Husein" Iraq.  The economically based protests (raising the issue of the corruption) have been noted and recorded in Baghdad and the Southern city Basrah.
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What all these protests have in common is undeniably the economical/social disapproval of the status quo.  What all these protests have in common is also the fact that ALL OF THEM ARE NOT RELATED TO THE RELIGIOUS FUNDAMENTALISM.  There is no religious undertone of the unrest in any of these countries.  Contrary to the scenario sold to the Western and local population, threatening the "radicalization" of the population, the societies in the Middle East are much more interested in improvement of the economical and social situation of the people than in religious separation from the majority of the Western World.
I am not trying to say that the danger of the radicalization of the Muslim population is not real, far from that.  We all should be vigilant.
But instead of the demonizing threat, the Western governments should become involved actively in convincing the Middle East peoples (and any other region of the world which starts seeking the path to democracy) that America can and will support them, leaving to them the final choice of the solution.

America has been demonized by the fundamental rhetoric for many decades (not without our help, when we reacted to the threat heavy-handedly).  It harmed the perception of the USA in the torn by violence regions.  It harmed the perception of the USA in the Western societies as well.  It allowed the enemies to use some elements of our politics against us in the eyes of the People of the region. 

Maybe it's time to show to the World that our principles - freedom of speech, freedom to assemble, freedom to move and all other pillars of our Constitution which in general create the opportunity to seek the better and fulfilled life - are the principles we stand by, above all, and against all odds.

Egypt - and members of the media (Lara Logan)...

Some sources report that as much as 140 reporters (including Egyptians) were harassed, beaten, detained, sexually or otherwise assaulted in Egypt during the Egyptian Revolution.  Some of them managed to heal their bruises themselves, some ended up in the hospitals.  Many of them were arrested by the government security forces and detained for a number of days - a clear violation of the international law - but the actions of the Army or the official Security Forces are not the subject I want to dwell upon now.  I am far more interested in what happened to the reporters in the streets of Cairo, Alexandria or other cities.
Covering the street fights, or any other unrest similar to the latest in Egypt, or Tunisia (Bahrain, Algeria, Yemen, Iran etc.) is probably the most dangerous job for the journalist.
I strongly believe that it is more dangerous than being a war correspondent.  Although the chance of being killed is much higher as a war journalist, everything is much better defined.  No one wanders to the enemy territory just to cover it without the army support.  In the unrest, this support is either scarce or non existent.
The mentality of the crowd, it's psychology is a very complex one, but it's safe to simply call it "explosive, flammable, volatile...".  A friendly crowd may change to a hostile one within a split second.  It's sometimes even hard to understand the reason for it.  Even more so if the journalist is of completely different cultural (and/or ethnic) background.

A crowd is completely unpredictable, prone to any provocation from forces whose agenda includes such a manipulation.
In Egypt of early February such a vitriol force consisted of the 'paid thugs' who were sent to the crowd to ignite the violence.  But, please do not take me wrong - also among the protesters (like within any group of people anywhere in the whole world) one can find individuals of very low moral standards, who thrive in a violent environment and intend to ignite that.  It only adds to the danger.
In any unrest, some part of the demonstrators accept the helping hand no matter what direction this hand is coming from, and others reject completely (often very naively) any form of foreign "intervention" - when the foreign journalists may be considered a part of this 'intervention'.  This part of the psychology of the crowd IS PREDICTABLE.  All the networks sending the journalists to such a 'tinder box' situation have to know that, and act upon this knowledge.
It's true even if the journalists cover the events in their (or similar) countries where they can 'blend in' or at least not to 'stand out'.  It's a rule of involvement - not to draw too much attention to themselves while covering any social development.

However we have seen on the TV and heard also the relations about the journalists, even the seasoned ones, who go to the streets while the events are unfolding without any security personnel.  If one has a pale skin, and a fair hair, and doesn't speak a fluent Arabic - the network should provide a higher security.
For some reason I am not much concerned about the whereabouts of Richard Engel, or Ben Wedeman, who know the Egyptian street, know the mentality of the people and know what they can and can not do, although what they do puts them in risk, nevertheless.  For the same reason I wouldn't be afraid of Christiane Amanpour who ALWAYS had a scarf on her had when covering any events in the Arab countries.  This sort of preparations goes without saying In the country where the majority is Muslim, and there are NO women on the streets without the scarf on their heads (at least a scarf).
WHEN IN ROME, DO AS ROMANS DO.  Is it so hard to remember and apply this rule?  When walking the streets of Cairo, or Alexandria, my wife (although a brunette) had a scarf on her head no matter if we were going to a restaurant, or just sightseeing.  It just feels better when people do not look at you with disapproval.  It's their country - we are just guests (more or less invited and approved, but it goes only so far).
In the normal - every day life in Egypt, my wife and some of my friends were on multiple occasions mildly harassed (groped) by some Egyptian males.  It happens on the buses, it happens in some places where the distances between people shrink, or disappear.  It ALWAYS happens in a crowd.  In all Arab countries the society gives completely different rights to different genders.  Egypt isn't an exception - it's a MALE SOCIETY, where women are 'allowed' to be journalists, lawyers, doctors...  The key word being: "ALLOWED".  It is different than Western societies.  It is "different" and even if the change for the better comes (slowly), it's not going to happen overnight.
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What I said above doesn't make me any less furious and sad, knowing what happened to the CBS foreign correspondent Lara Logan, and many other woman correspondents.
The reports said:
"CBS correspondent Miss Logan endured a 'brutal and sustained' sexual assault and beating while covering the resignation of President Mubarak in Egypt.The mother-of-one had been surrounded by an angry mob of 200 people before the assault which is thought to have lasted up to half an hour. She had to be saved by a group of women and 20 Egyptian soldiers and was later taken to hospital."

Every correspondent knows the risk involved (or is supposed to know) in covering such events.  But we all know, that in our, so competitive world, where "information war" is strictly connected to the "ratings war" between the networks - in order to do the job right one is supposed to 'push the envelope' as far as it goes.  The networks expect more and more daring  reports, and commentaries.  The key worn here is 'daring'...  Some believe in their '9 lives'.  Some trust their instincts, and some simply loose the perspective, push too hard and fall victim...
Unfortunately such tragedies happen.  We loose quite a number of journalists, who are kidnapped, beaten, sexually violated... every year.
Sometimes it's just an accident... one of the elements of the job... Sometimes there is no way of protection...
But in the case of Lara Logan who suffered the most, or Anderson Cooper who was smacked around near Tahrir Sq, or Hala Gorani who was pushed against the fence and miraculously saved by one of the demonstrators - I BLAME THE NETWORKS FOR NOT PROVIDING INCREASED NUMBER OF SECURITY PERSONNEL  to protect highly exposed journalists.

It's also disgusting when some 'fellow journalists' suddenly accuse the victims of perpetrating the events themselves.  Unfortunately we heard such voices also during any "rape" trials - voices which blamed the 'victims' for bringing 'it' on themselves.  When such words come from the mouths of uncultured, uneducated people, we know that nothing can be done to prevent it...
In the case of the journalists who were harmed in Egypt such voices are uttered by the members of the same profession (!!!!!!!), the elite, if you will.  Let me introduce a few of these people with a confused moral standing, and vitriol attitude:
Debbie Schlussel Conservative political commentator, radio talk show host, columnist, and attorney (debbieschlussel.com) posted a picture of Miss Logan on her blog, under the headline: 'Islam Fan Lara Logan Gets a Taste of Islam' as well as 'Lara Logan’s Taste of Islamic Jew-Hatred'.  Yesterday Schlussel wrote: 'So sad, too bad, Lara.
'No one told her to go there. She knew the risks. And she should have known what Islam is all about. Now she knows. Or so we’d hope.  'Hope you’re enjoying the revolution, Lara! Alhamdilllullah [praise allah].'(quote after dailymail.co.uk)
Nir Rosen, a journalist and a fellow at New York University (resigned today) insensitively tweeted a very derogatory remarks:
“Lara Logan had to outdo Anderson,” Rosen Tweeted, referring to the Anderson who was punched in the head multiple times while covering the recent demonstrations in Egypt’s Tahrir Square.
“Yes yes it’s wrong what happened to her. Of course. I don’t support that. But it would have been funny if it happened to Anderson too,” he continued on Twitter, followed by a string of Tweets that were even more hurtful and disrespectful.
”Jesus Christ, at a moment when she is going to become a martyr and glorified we should at least remember her role as a major war monger”
“Look, she was probably groped like thousands of other women.”
Rush Limbaugh - I guess I do not have to introduce this conservative nitwit (on the Feb. 04) - "... I mean even two New York Times reporters were detained. Now this is supposed to make us feel what exactly? ... Are we supposed to feel outrage – I don’t feel any outrage over it. Are we supposed to feel anger – I don’t feel any anger over this. Do we feel happy? ..."
However, when word came later in his show that Fox News’ Greg Palkot was attacked, it didn’t seem so funny anymore.
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What happened to all these injured or just psychologically scarred journalists is appalling, but it's the risk they willingly take - we should be appreciative of that.  But providing them with no security in such a volatile environment is completely shortsighted and despicable.
I did not even want to summarize what I thought about the 'fellow' journalists who heartlessly attacked and ridiculed the victims of these attacks (it would have been un-civilized...).

Egypt - long road to Democracy...

Three days ago, when the Army announced taking the power in the country after ousting the Dictator,  the Tahrir Square exploded with the sudden JOY of the demonstrators.  The celebrations were unprecedented, the same way as unprecedented was the outcome of the uprising, the same way as unprecedented the uprising itself was.

It have been very difficult three weeks.  The demonstrations, the police and thugs attacks, released criminals, injuries, deaths, damage to the properties, peaceful voicing of the demands, ousting of the President...  While the nation smooths the roughed up feathers of Egypt, the crowd in the Tahrir Square literally smooths the square, removing the barricades, sweeping and cleaning the pavement from the damage and the debris of the revolution.  The people in their despair stood up to the regime, demanding the changes in the country where so many felt completely disenfranchised, where the corruption on all levels of the society disallowed the people to be proud of their country.  These people suddenly felt the joy of ownership of Egypt.

There are many young and educated people with the profound knowledge of the history, social relationships and the economical mechanisms. 

These people right now roll up their sleeves and clean the country from the debris, but also promise to clean the country form "all the trash" accumulated by the system in so many decades of the authoritarian regime.

Egypt faces the long and difficult process of normalization. The army is in control right now.  Both, the Cabinet and the Parliament have been dissolved.  The army set a time frame of their control - 6 months, or the democratic election (whatever comes first).  It is satisfactory to the protesters as well as approved by all the observers.  But we have to bear in mind that however popular, likable, and willing the Army is - it is the same Army which ruled "de facto" Egypt for already 60 years.  As much as we all would like to believe that the Army's and the people's goal are the same, the army has been responsible for a lot of 'unpopular' facts which have happened in Egypt throughout the years.  The Army has been the armed arm of the regime.

It requires the leap of faith to trust the Army to lead the country to Democracy.  Many protesters in Tahrir Square have came to this realization  while the whole country was celebrating.

In order for the real democracy being able to succeed in Egypt, the whole system must be restructured.  Since we live in the NOT IDEAL world the reality will call for a numerous compromises.  The compromises which will be acceptable by some , and completely unacceptable by others.

Let's see for a moment what are the features of the system which have to be restructured, or completely replaced:

1.  Police force - has to be reviewed, issued the new rules of conduct - some commanders have to be replaced (what do you do with the demoted commanders who have the blood on their hands?) - police force has to be paid more, so 'shake up' is not the only way to survive for a policeman.

2.  The new Constitution has to be formed - probably some paragraphs have to be determined in a national referendum.  The Supreme court and a specially formed Commission has to oversee the process.

3.   New (and old) parties have to be revived and their representatives have to form the Parliament and a new Government afterwords (in the general elections).

4.   There are plenty of Big Businesses who were extremely supportive to the previous Government (and they were awarded all the lucrative contracts by the previous Government) - this relationship has to be reviewed and probably many CEOs removed from the equation.  Many of these companies do not deserve to get the public contracts.  The old system was built on bribes and favoritism.

5.   Egypt is not a poor country, but it's people are poor.  The recent years saw Egypt growing just below 10% annually - the population hasn't seen a "piaster" of it (an Egyptian "penny").  The distribution of the profits from the industry and the tourism has to be changed (I am not suggesting any socialist approach, they are plenty of ways to do it in the free market economy).

6.   The last is probably the most controversial issue - President Mubarak's family wealth is estimated at $40-70 BILLION.  I do not see how it was feasible in the country like Egypt - anywhere for that matter.  These founds have to return to be used in rebuilding the country.  The Swiss banks already issued a decree freezing all the 'known' account of the Mubarak's family.  The key word here is "known".  I am sure that the gross of this fortune is in the proxy accounts which are simply inaccessible.

The democratic process is 'per se' vulnerable, to any corrupting forces.  The whole revolution while unfolding on the TV screens didn't show any, even a single Anti-American, or Anti-Israeli outburst.  No flag burning, no extreme religious calls.  We witnessed the unexpected by many conservative pundits - completely secular, educated, peaceful call for Democracy. 

The process which started now, the process much more difficult than the revolution itself, will be watched very carefully by all, both the West, as well as other Arab countries in the region.  I am sure that Iran, or even the extreme forces in Saudi Arabia will try to steal the momentum and change the direction of the evolution to their side. 

But Egyptian people, to the surprise of many observers, have proved already that what some feared, and the VP Suleiman dared to say openly ("The Egyptians are not ready for democracy") IS SIMPLY NOT TRUE AT ALL. 

The American Government was in a very difficult position, considering all the pressures of the allied Regimes in the region.  Many criticized it for complacency, or dragging their feet (I am myself one of the people who criticized).  Either it was accidental (considering the Ambassador Weisner issue), or well planned and executed - the USA backed the People of Egypt in the right moment, strongly enough to make a difference, but at the same time not to be accused of trying to reshape the Middle East to our liking.  Good job, Mr. President.

What is more important for me personally is that the USA has gained a friend in a form of the Egyptian People as expressed by Wael Ghonim  in a TV interview and confirmed by many tweets I received.

The long road ahead - it will be (for sure) a bumpy ride, but the future looks bright (so far).

Social Media unstoppable power...

It was exhilarating to follow the developments of the Egyptian Revolution (It wasn't the first one of the sort.  Let's not forget - Tunisia had a successful revolt a few weeks earlier).

Nevertheless it was breath taking to observe the unfolding, in the lightning speed, events.  The Social Media made it possible.  

When the Communist Block was crumbling I was already in the USA, and only the newspapers, and occasionally the TV brought the news of the slow and often bloody progress of the unrest.

To the observer, they had a tremendous power, like a steam roller, but they lacked the dynamics we witnessed in the latest revolts. 

On the February 11, when the Mubarak's government was no more - I twitted:

I LOVE THE SMELL OF MY iPHONE IN THE MORNING - IT SMELLS LIKE... VICTORY - tribute to Social Media #Egypt.

It was truly this technology: Twitter and Facebook  which changed forever the reality in the Middle East.  We have to understand that it was a system with a very well oiled suppression apparatus, with more than 1.5 Million people on the payroll of the Interior Ministry - the army of thugs, informers and the plainclothes.  It was a system which owned and controlled the media in 100%. 

And the system, as described above, fell like a house of cards in result of the created by Wael Ghonim Facebook page: “We Are All Khaled Said” in the memory of the murdered by the police blogger.  This page became the most viewed and subscribed to page on the Internet in the Middle East.  This page - this technology suddenly showed the people in the whole region, that the People had the real and unquestionable power which could no longer be suppressed and could ignite the biggest social explosion known so far, given just a spark.

The needed spark came from Tunisia when the underemployed college graduate who had to earn for living as a street vendor, who was arrested for selling goods without permit, reached the end of his rope and set himself on fire.  This spark (no pun intended) spread itself like a wild fire throughout the whole region via millions of tweets on Twitter. 

All the necessary information about the time of the planned demonstrations, the intended location, and all other info was received by the millions of Twitter account holders.  At certain point the Mubarak's regime thought that it might have gained an upper hand if they had closed the Internet.  It was too late.  The Genie was out of the bottle.  The technology allowed the people to get around that obstacle and 'tweet by proxy' using the foreign telephone numbers. 

Probably no one, in the most far fetched predictions, anticipated that this little tool, just a 'step up' from 'texting', a tool used by a 6-years old (to tell "the world" about the color of the sky reflection in the lake water), would be the most important tool of the fight for Democracy.   But it is.

As I mentioned: the Genie is out of the bottle...  The demonstrations sweep through the cities of many countries in the region, but not only.  The Chinese authorities already banned (the technology allows for censoring the Twitter) the hash tags associated with the Egyptian revolt.  Is it going to save them?  In the XXI century the flow of information is unstoppable.  Time will show how far they are willing to evolve their totalitarian system giving in to the people's demands. 

I myself started using Twitter (@AIR_BLOG) very short time ago.  It's not a tool for everybody.  Tweeting the messages about the 'celebrity sightings' is (in my humble opinion) a waste of the bandwidth.  But we live in a free country - so use it any way you feel fit. 

But USE IT.  It may prove to be a life saver...