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Wednesday, September 4, 2013
NO - to war on Syria
The Arab Spring bringing down the old and compromised regimes in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and then Libya took all the world by surprise. And yet, it happened… after the decades of the abuse, the citizens of these countries said: Enough is enough… down with dictators… and the revolution began.
I wrote about it extensively, while it was happening. I wrote about my (and others') frustration by the American indecision.
All the promises contained in Obama's speech in Cairo University, kind of faded away, un-addressed in the real life.
Yes, we helped in Libya. The French took a lead, leaving us with the support role. I was happy, that at last Americans do not have to be the Policeman of the World. To be honest - the Libyan intervention was done in a perfect, limited way, without endangering our troops, and without loosing the face internationally.
When the Egyptians elected in a democratic way the new President who happened to be one of the leaders of Muslim Brotherhood, we all almost choked… But as many said: FROM HUSSEIN TO JEFFERSON THE ONLY WAY IS THROUGH KHOMEINI (what translates loosely to: From dictatorship to democracy the only way is through the support of religion). The history proved that it was the common way of development (Poland in the Nineties, etc). However, this democratically elected president (who stated previously that would support all multi religious and gender rights) quickly denied his democratic promises and put Egypt on the path to dictatorship and Sharia… After months of the protests, Morsi's government was deposed by Egyptian Army responding to the populous demand.
And at that point America roared agains this action. Like all the events of Morsi's abusive presidency didn't happen… Army is not a good solution, by if they intent to pass the power to the civilian, elected government and stand aside…
Syria. The civil war in this Middle Eastern country exceeded our worst fears. It's been already 2 years of the conflict. In first months the whole world was shocked and disgusted by the indiscriminating killing performed by Assad regime, claiming fighting with terrorists… The daily death toll was rising to more than a hundred a day…
It's September 2013. By now Assad killed more than a hundred thousand people. Not the army, or rebel fighters. He has been decimating the whole neighborhoods, cities, indiscriminately shelling and with artillery, tanks, shooting from air…
For two years Obama set quiet and America did nothing but the insignificant UN protests. There were the congressional debates, plenty of White House rhetoric about how bad it was in Syria, and that it should stop immediately, and nothing real was coming out of it.
For quite some time the rebels were bringing reports of the use of the chemical weapons on the population in Syria. The White House rhetoric started to be more harsh and aggressive… President Obama started to 'draw a red line', which if crossed would result in the American military action.
In the resent weeks Assad regime indeed used the Chemical Weapons - they gassed about 1500 cyvilians with Sarin gas. The UN inspectors went to Syria and gathered evidence, but before they brought it back, the Obama Administration announced to have enough evidence to authorize a strike against the Syrian-Assad assets with a limited missile attack.
More than a hundred thousand casualties by the conventional weapons was not enough, and didn't push out Administration even to arming the rebels - before they got fragmented and infested with Alkaeda.
The Russians supported Assad since the inception of his father. He assured their access to the Middle East and together with Iran created a strong counterweight to the Western influence. This fact alone creates the situation, in which Syria is a tinder box, and one has to very careful with fire around it...
And yet, Obama is pushing for a military, limited missile strike. After days of empty rhetorics and threads, and after the British, and Italians refused to be part of the coalition in the war agains Syria, suddenly the President asks the Congress for the authorization of the strike. I am not a constitutional lawyer (he actually is), but I know that this is not the proper order of things.
The Congressional approval or disapproval should precede any form of actual action, and flexing of our military muscle.
Sent by the hasty decision of the President, there are already several US Navy ships armed with Cruise missiles ready to fire, at the shores of Syria.
In our TV news channels, like CNN the nation is bombarded by the reheated Domino Effect Theory (introduced by President Dwight Eisenhower in 1954 in the context of Vietnam and the Indochina in general). It's pathetic and repulsive that the theory which didn't work in Vietnam is brought as an argument now in the context of Syria.
We should have learned that Vietnam war destroyed our credence in the World, but didn't bring anything positive in return. We lost 58K troops and we lost a face at the same time.
None of other wars which we launched left and right hasn't brought anything beyond the exhaustion, economical crisis, and total hatred of the World.
Beside that point, all the wars have already proven that there has been no such thing, like a limited conflict. Going to Syria in any capacity we open a Pandora's box. It's easy to win the war with a inferior army of a Third World country. It took us 2 months to 'finish' Saddam… And then, 10 years later the war is still on and we quietly leave the mess behind us.
I read on the subject, from the various sources. No one ever concluded, that any military action now (not 2 years ago, which might have been successful) would bring any positive, and long lasting effects. We simply missed our window of opportunity.
Now we can sit and watch - maybe supporting the 'chosen' rebels with weapons and supplies…
We can't take out the Assad regime, because the void would be even more dangerous.
We can't bomb the chemical weapons themselves, because the contamination would be like a chemical attack itself.
We can take out some delivery systems (the key word is "some").
We can take out his air force (not helicopters) and air strips, and this will make him just angry…
So, why doing so? Just to make sure that the President's words are not in vain ? - it is just plain stupid. He shouldn't make this threat at the first place.
We brake it - we buy it… It may be our war for the rest of our days.
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