The Libyan unrest started 6 weeks ago.
The UN passed the Resolution 1973 on March 17, accepting the establishment of the "no-fly zone" over Libya, to protect civilians.
French military attacked the Gaddafi's forces on March 19, saving the city of Benghazi and it's inhabitants from the fury of the Regime.
British and US Cruise missiles started falling on the designated military targets on March 20.
NATO took over the implementation of the "no-fly zone" over Libya on March 25.
Stalemate.
The Opposition forces containing mostly young and untrained fighters have proven already that with a "little help from their friends" (allied air support) can make a stand against quite well organized, trained and well equipped Gaddafi's army. All the observers agree that it's not a regular army. They are disorganized, acting on emotions, not knowing the concept of the chain of command, not understanding logistics, wasting ammunition making a lot of noise.
At the same time, however, they are driven by the passion for the new future for their country. They are on the quest for the new, democratic state...
Since the American and NATO forces started implementation of the "no-fly zone" the power equation has changed, greatly benefiting the Opposition. The Libyan conflict has proven to be much more dynamic than anticipated. Gaddafi's forces adjusted their strategy, evolved adapting to the imposed model of war. Instead of using the heavy armor in an obvious and visible way, the Pro-Gaddafi fighters attack in small units, using the light, and agile transport vehicles, making themselves a very difficult target for the Coalition to destroy.
To make the situation more complicated the reported number of sorties performed by all the allied planes has diminished significantly during the last week.
Is it because of the realization that the most of the Libyan defenses have been taken out, and the NATO limits itself to the strict interpretation of the no-fly zone resolution, leaving out the air support for the ground opposition troops? According to AFP, Admiral Mullen said that they had not been able to see through the weather to identify targets. "And that has more than anything else reduced the impact... reduced the effectiveness, and has allowed the regime forces to move back to the east."
We heard in the numerous reports that the Pro-Democracy Fighters had been joined by the big number of regular army soldiers. Very often these defections were done by the whole army units, including their commanders. Representatives of the opposition in the Southern town of Kufrah claimed that the members of the elite Khamis Brigade had gone over to the rebels (the infamous brigade took it's name from it's commander Khamis Gaddafi, who - as suspected - was killed). Reports were informing of a mysterious General who defected with about 13 thousand of the Special Forces soldiers, with the equipment.
Such a great number of the well organized regular army, well armed and motivated, would make a great difference on the 'front line' of the conflict. Unfortunately, for some reason, these alleged defections haven't produced too much of the improvement of the Opposition fighting capabilities. None of the CNN, NBC, or AlJazeera reporters have ever seen these anxiously awaited army units, which would have changed completely the situation. Do they exist at all?
Were all these Opposition claims about army defection, just an attempt to boost morale of the "ragtag" opposition forces? Or, these alleged defections are more just a diabolical plan of the Colonel Gaddafi to infiltrate and destroy the Opposition from within? Such a thought may cross one's mind when we learn that the allied jet-fighter bombed an Opposition fighters convoy near Brega on Saturday, after being shot upon from the ground, and thus mistaking it for the Gaddafi's army...
"As regrettable as it may be, we understand that we might have to give up lives for the greater good. We have to look at the bigger picture," opposition spokesman Mustafa Gheriani said. "This is a war and the lines are so fluid going back and forth, so it's natural that mistakes will happen."
Again, was it a mistake, or some Gaddafi's fighters opened fire on the allied plane from within the convoy or a close proximity?
Suspicions of such a new (for this conflict) Gaddafi's "fifth column" tactics are considered very seriously by all the observers.
Gaddafi is known for using the "cheap tricks". There were many confirmed reports about his army soldiers, dressed in the civilian clothes and hidden in the civilian houses in the cities like Brega, or Ras Lanuf, waiting until the opposition fighters enter the city and attacking them from the behind. Often having their tanks also hidden in the allies or even inside of the houses. There were numerous reports from the outskirts of Sirte (the Dictator's birth place and a stronghold) about the Gaddafi's army units waving the white flag, and "surrendering" to the Opposition, only to open fire on the unsuspecting opposition fighters from the close distance.
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On March 30, the US official sources confirmed (what has already leaked) that Pres. Obama signed the document allowing the CIA covert actions in Libya, and that the CIA operatives were already on the ground to gather intelligence for military airstrikes and to contact and vet the beleaguered opposition forces. AlJazeera correspondents reported that in the Eastern Libya, there was a training camp for the selected Opposition forces, run by the American Special Ops. and the Egyptian Special Ops. Opposition have been asking for a long time for the arms. They have been greatly outgunned by the regime and needed more sophisticated weaponry to fight the Gaddafi's armed brigades. As reported this is the kind of weapons the opposition fighters are right now training for.
The Pro-Democracy fighters have no military training in general, especially when the new, Western made weapons are considered. As reported, they have been already training to use the sophisticated, Heat Seeking, shoulder launched missiles and the bigger and more powerful truck mounted launchers - which already have found their way into Libya, from Egypt.
Since the option of the Western "boots on the ground" has been generally rejected (for the multiplicity of the political reasons), providing the Opposition with the weaponry and the training allowing them to successfully challenge the Gaddafi's armor and rocket launchers, is the only choice of the Coalition. It can be argued if the existing embargo on the weapon trade to Libya in conjunction with the Resolution 1973 can be interpreted allowing such a help. However, considering that the Libyans have to depose the Dictator themselves, without the Western active intervention, it is the only choice.
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There have been many defections of the Libyan officials, since the very beginning of the conflict. We witnessed the Ambassadors to many countries and to the UN, changing allegiance. We witnessed the Ministers changing sides (one of them is the head of the National Council - the main Opposition Governing Body).
In the recent days we could add to that list the Libyan Foreign Minister: Moussa Koussa, who was also a head of the Intelligence in the previous years. This defection delivered a heavy blow to the regime, and constitutes a bottomless well of the information about the regime and it's structure, resources, weak points... As reported by the correspondents in Libya, despite the governmental crack down on the potential defections, many politicians have already, and other prepare to defect. "It is not through actions of war that we can make Gaddafi leave, but rather through strong international pressure to encourage defections by people close to him," said Italy's foreign minister, Franco Frattini.
Unfortunately, the Libyan structure of the government allows the Leader (Gaddafi) to have an absolute control over the country by himself. He is still surrounded by some supporters (including his family).
Libyan dictator has sent his envoys to other countries several times already, trying to pressure the friendly, and unfriendly governments, and work out some "exit strategy" for himself and the family. Although the details oft these talks have never surfaced (so far), Gaddafi makes that effort repeatedly. Libya's former prime minister, and a current Deputy Foreign Minister Abdul Ati al-Obeidi, confirming remarks by US secretary of state Hillary Clinton that regime figures were trying to get in contact, said on Friday: "We are trying to talk to the British, the French and the Americans to stop the killing of people. We are trying to find a mutual solution". His comments followed the disclosure that a senior aide to Gaddafi's powerful son, Saif al-Islam, had met British officials last week on a visit to London.
On Sunday, 04.03, Abdel Ati al-Obeidi flew to Athens carrying a personal message from Gaddafi to Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, that Libya wanted the fighting to end, a Greek government official told Reuters.
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The pundits and analysts all over the Globe, as well as the military strategists are already unanimous in their opinion that considering the existing stalemate in the fights in Libya the solution to the crisis is probably going to be a political one, not a military. Only time will tell...
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