Obama’s weakness - Elections? - why not a single 6-years-long term?

I am tired of watching never-ending, always starting earlier (every half a term), National Elections Frenzy (perfectly fed - instigated by the media).  I am tired of watching the President juggling all the “special interest groups”, and instead of choosing GOOD solutions, choosing only “plausible” solutions.

It’s time for a change.

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During the Presidential Electoral Campaign, the Candidate Barack Obama talked passionately about the common people problems, about the social rights of the minorities, about immigration.  He talked passionately about restoring America as a shining beacon of Democracy, extending her hand to all the nations who would like to follow our, Democratic example…

He talked about restoring America for Americans, bringing us up from the depths of ‘Hell’ created by the two terms of the misguided, and trigger happy, Commander in Chief – Bush “the 2nd”…

When Obama took the Office of the President of the United States, no one could imagine a better circumstances: the first Black President, a Democrat, intelligent and outspoken, having on his side both houses of the Congress (both with decisive Democratic Majority), and having been backed up by almost ALL Americans, tired of the “post 911 decade”, and the financial collapse…

2 years later, the congressional elections proved that America felt a bit disillusioned, a bit cheated… and the Democrats lost the Majority in Congress (still having it in the Senate).  The Tea Party (not heard about beforehand) with it’s extremists started dictate the new order in Washington.

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We all know it by heart.  There is no need to elaborate on it. 

What I want to talk about is the situation often mentioned by the pundits and media commentators, the situation related to the upcoming Presidential Elections of 2012. 

What dawned on me recently is, that the relationship between the performance of the President in his First Term, is in direct correlation with the Presidential Campaign.  Although it became drastically obvious this year, in case of Obama’s complacency and continuous trials to please certain voters groups, it was visible also during the presidencies of the previous Presidents of the USA.

The influence of the second term Presidential Elections on the policies of the current President has been increasing throughout the years.  Also, amount of money spent on the elections has been increasing exponentially, getting into the neighborhood of a Billion USD, or even more.  These funds come from the donations of the general population (in case of Obama’s first term the number of $5.00 donations from the supporters from all walks of life, was unprecedented), but also from the Big Industry (majority of the donations). 

Although the system allows for donations from the Industry, it’s illegal to put pressure on the President in Office to pass the legislature favoring the donor and it’s Industry.  It is illegal, but lobbyists are part of the Washington political climate, and it’s obvious that this pressure exists. 

One may speculate that the demands for the return on the “investment” are proportional to the donations…

Let’s have a quick look at the two-term Presidents in the post WWII American History (*1):

1.             Harry S. Truman – D(1945-1953)

Although a Democrat – the end of the War President ordered A-bombs to be dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.  Contrary to the first term, he did run the second electoral campaign in 1948 on a liberal “The Fair Deal” token.  Although the conservative Congress rejected most of his proposals, he managed to win the raising of the minimal wage, and expanding of the Social Security.  His popularity plummeted in with the growing anti-communist atmosphere and a birth of McCarthyism, as well as involving the US in an unpopular war to defend South Korea against the Communist invasion.

2.             Dwight D. Eisenhower – R(1953-1961)

A popular War Hero and a moderate Republican, spent most of his energy and American resources on creating and ‘feeding’ the Cold War.  He wasn’t a “people’s president”, and even the school desegregation, ordered by the Supreme Court, wasn’t high on his agenda.  He used his influence to quietly diminish influence of the Junior Senator McCarthy.  At the end of his second term, not caring for reelection, Eisenhower also "waged peace," hoping to improve U.S.-Soviet relations and negotiate a treaty banning nuclear testing in the air and seas.

3.             Lyndon B. Johnson – D(1963-1969) – took office after the assassination of JFK – elected in 1965.

L.B. Johnson has been the most misunderstood (or wrongly judged) President in the US modern history.

I wrote about him in the article: “Martin Luther King Jr. Birthday observed - Presidents of that era”.  He inherited the Vietnam War from JFK, when, after JFK’s assassination he took Office of the President.  Yes, he is responsible for escalation of that war – I would say – sign of the time.  However, he pushed the social agenda to the limits, not caring for re-election (in fact he deliberately refused to be nominated by his party).

Let’s see what he was able to realize, not being pressured any more:

   * 1963: Clean Air Act of 1963
    * 1964: Civil Rights Act of 1964
    * 1964: Urban Mass Transportation Act of 1964
    * 1964: Wilderness Act
    * 1964: Food Stamp Act of 1964
    * 1965: Higher Education Act of 1965
    * 1965: Older Americans Act
    * 1965: Social Security Act of 1965
    * 1965: Voting Rights Act
    * 1965: Immigration and Nationality Services Act of 1965
    * 1966: Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
    * 1967: Age Discrimination in Employment Act
    * 1967: Public Broadcasting Act of 1967
    * 1968: Bilingual Education Act
    * 1968: Fair housing
    * 1968: Gun Control Act of 1968

4.             Richard M. Nixon – R(1969-1975) – reelected in 1974.

Smart, but controversial figure, who, during his second term (cut short by WaterGate, and his resignation to avoid the impeachment), completely subscribed to the “above-the-law-statue” and believed in the total “impunity” of his actions – what led to braking in to the Democratic Party Headquarters and the subsequent cover-up.

5.             Ronald Reagan – R(1981-1989)

Conservative President, who during the first term increased the tensions of the Cold War negotiating with the Soviets from the position of Strength.  “The Evil Empire” term came to the American vocabulary.  Very conservative fiscally, reducing taxes and putting the American Economy at risk. 

In his second term, however, he managed to sign the treaties with the Soviets leading to the reduction of the Global Nuclear Arsenals by 50%.  His final touch was braking down of the Berlin Wall (between the East and West Berlin) – the very symbol of the Cold War.

6.             Bill Clinton – D(1993-2001)

In the case of President Clinton it’s hard to find any un-constricted actions starting in his second term.  Paula Jones and Monica Lewinsky cases clouded successfully both the President’s judgment as well as his actions afterwards.  The second term started with the impeachment proceedings impeding the normal presidency.  However, during the first term, he failed to deliver on his promises to give the Full, and Unrestricted Health Coverage to the nation.  His Health Reform proposal was killed effortlessly and never resurfaced.

7.             George W. Bush – R(2001-2009)

This president – I dare say – The Worst President of the Modern American History, was definitely completely “mis-under-estimated” (as he would say himself – a known linguist).  By the effects of 911 (the worst terrorist attack on the American soil), he was given a mandate, which opened the Pandora’s Box.  He, and his evil shadow (Vice President Chaney), managed to ruin the hopes for the normal future to the most of currently living Americans.  His born-again-Christian routine, sparring two wars, and stealing from the Nation the chance of living a normal, debt-free life was escalating throughout his presidency with no obstacle.  To start with, he didn’t have to control his appetite during his first presidency (because of 911 and the American thirst for retribution).  He went ‘full throttle’ during the second term.           

8.             Barack Obama – D(2009 ???) – not known yet if reelected in 2012.

What we can compare is what he had promised as a presidential candidate, and what he DIDN’T deliver as a President.  Well, the list is not that short (not counting for a few “window dressings” like the end of “don’t ask – don’t tell” policy, or what was left from the “health care reform” – no preexisting condition).

Afraid of losing support for the second term election, Obama was quite timid pushing his social and economical proposals – even though both houses of the Congress had a Democratic Majority.  As a result the Tea Partiers almost succeeded killing the Health Reform.  They succeeded keeping the Temporary Bush Tax Cuts for the wealthiest 1% of society. 

Somehow closing of the “Gitmo” is not on the table any more (although it was also promised in Cairo).  On the International Theater, what he promised in his Cairo speech in 2009 has been greatly compromised, leading to the reversal of his stand on the Palestinian-Jewish conflict resolution.  In the Cairo speech he said (2*):

“(…)At the same time, Israelis must acknowledge that just as Israel's right to exist cannot be denied, neither can Palestine's.  The United States does not accept the legitimacy of continued Israeli settlements.  This construction violates previous agreements and undermines efforts to achieve peace.  It is time for these settlements to stop.
Israel must also live up to its obligations to ensure that Palestinians can live, and work, and develop their society.  And just as it devastates Palestinian families, the continuing humanitarian crisis in Gaza does not serve Israel's security; neither does the continuing lack of opportunity in the West Bank. Progress in the daily lives of the Palestinian people must be part of a road to peace, and Israel must take concrete steps to enable such progress.(…)”

Even though Obama in the past (not that distant) presented more comprehensive and decisive statements against the Israeli settlements in the East Jerusalem and other sites in the West Bank, when the reelection campaign has started, to guarantee him the ‘devotion’ of the pro-Israeli voters, his positions softened to the point of being called “The First Jewish President” by the New York Magazine (3*).

One can pile up proofs of the Obama’s “change of heart”, with already fully blown re-election campaign.  However, let’s leave it where it is…  since the goal of this article is to show the solution, not to dwell on the problem itself.

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Since in the American Political System, the re-election campaigns start more than 2 years before the actual Presidential Elections, the whole political life of the Nation is completely controlled by the campaign.  Most of the President’s decisions during this second half of the first term are determined by the political gains or other behind-the-scenes games. 

In my opinion, and I read it also between the lines of the articles written by many pundits and reporters, this status quo is harmful to the USA as a country. 

I see the relatively easy way out of this predicament.  Instead of the possibility of two consecutive terms as a President of the USA – I would limit it to only ONE – SIX YEAR TERM.

Many countries sport the six-year-terms of their elected executives.  Why don’t we appropriate it into our system? 

A single, six-year-long term, would provide the uninterrupted climate for Presidential, un-pressured by the lobbies, performance. 

The system in it’s current form clouds the president’s judgment, forcing his decisions along the lines requested (or expected) by the major donors of the campaign money, and also to please the major voter groups, to guarantee their unshaken support in the elections.  It also requires the actual, physical President’s participation in the campaign; effectively removing him from what he was hired for – the job of a President.

Most of the two-term Presidents lose the 2 years before the reelection on the campaign, leaving us with the 6 years of the effective (if so) job performance.  So, why not arbitrary reduce the time in the office to 6 years?

Taking the President OFF the road during the campaign would also benefit the country.

I know, that the US Constitution is a ‘sacred’ document.  But the World evolves around us, and the document, which was written more than 200 years ago, needs to evolve (by adding the amendments), to reflect these changes of the external World. 

Is it so hard to imagine, that the Presidents of the United States come to the Oval Office for uninterrupted six years at a time? – Is it so hard to ask, that they devote themselves just to the running of the Country during this time?

I am tired of watching never-ending, always starting earlier (every half a term), National Elections Frenzy (perfectly fed and instigated by the media).  I am tired of watching the President juggling all the “special interest groups”, and instead of choosing GOOD solutions, choosing only “plausible” solutions.

It’s time for a change.

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1* - http://millercenter.org/president

2* - http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/04/us/politics/04obama.text.html?pagewanted=5

3* - http://mondoweiss.net/2011/09/new-york-magazine-on-obamas-quest-for-money-from-a-list-tribesmen.html

Michele Bachmann – low balling idiot…

I apologize to use a personal insult terms in this blog… I truly thought that I could avoid that…

Sadly, Michele Bachmann forced me to use this personal judgment term – let me explain why:

I have been civil enough not to call her “names” when she proved time and time again, that she didn’t pay much attention in high school to the history class, and has the audacity to use completely fabricated and UNTRUE statements about our “forefathers, like Quincy Adams ‘to fight tirelessly to end slavery’” – when he was 9 years old and wasn’t a USA forefather.  I held my breath when she ‘tirelessly’ contradicted the written history records on other, numerous occasions…

But now, in the end of September of 2011, her incompatible with reality brain cooked up a theory that the Arab Spring was a direct result of the President Obama weakness… (1*).

On September 29th 2011, in Concord, NC. Bachmann also drew a comparison between the fall of the Shah of Iran -- who Bachmann says Jimmy Carter "turned his back" on -- and President Obama's present-day relationship with Israel.

Bachmann also linked the rise of "Radical Jihad" to the fall of the Shah and the 1979 Iranian revolution.

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I do not want to list her inconsistencies (OK, plain stupidities), but recall the Quincy Adams remark, her attack on the government subsidies (when her husband psychiatric clinic received the subsidies from the Medicare), etc…

In my opinion such people should be isolated in the psychiatric wards as harmful to the society – in short CRIMINALLY INSANE. 

The First Amendment is a Sacred Law.  Anybody has the right to say what anybody wants…, unless it’s harmful to the society at large.  Saying the Goebels Truths (lies repeated thousand times) should be punishable by law – if the politician who has a legal statue does it.  Michele Bachmann crossed the line…

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1* -  http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/09/29/8038856-bachmann-condemns-arab-spring-blames-it-on-obama

Palestine – is it going to be the 194th nation?

This year’s Summer was not a very typical one, neither in America, nor in the whole World.  Usually bringing fewer excitements, than other seasons, this one let us witness a political shakedown in the USA, fall of Gaddafi’s regime, slaughter of innocents in Syria…

Autumn (I don’t want to call it FALL in this article…), usually brings to New York City a refreshing breeze, cooling a bit overheated streets.  It brings also the UN Session.

Most of them come and go unnoticed to the typical New Yorkers, but this one is awaited with anticipation, even anxiety of sort.  In couple of days Mahmoud Abbas, the President of the Palestinian Authority, is going to present his case for the statehood of Palestine, to the UN Security Council.

He’s been networking for this cause tirelessly, since the beginning of the Arab Spring.  He appealed to the people and the politicians in the Middle East, Europe, and other parts of the World.  Finally Abbas came to New York to close it...
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About 63 years ago the new country appeared on the maps of the Middle East - Newly Created Country – Israel.  The World’s public opinion was unified.  After the WWII, and the Holocaust it was obvious that it was a high time to give the long oppressed people, the place which they could call: home.  So, the Jews, who lived all over the World were given a place where they would be welcomed, and which would be THEIRS, from that time on.  Finally, after the years of disregarding the problem, and witnessing the attempt to execute “a madman’s diabolical plan” to exterminate the whole race, this race earned the right to have the place of their own.
As the result of the Arab-Israeli war of 1948, which broke afterwards, the place provided by the UN resolution for the new state, was substantially augmented.

The same time, for another race, instead of the national celebration, came the NAKBA (“nakba” in a loose translation is a "day of the catastrophe").  According to the UNRWA estimates, more than 711 thousand Palestinians (mostly Arabic-speakers), had to flee or were forcefully displaced from their land (*1).  Refugees are not only those who were displaced, but also their descendents.  It brings the total number of Palestinian Refugees, a sizable part of the Palestinian Diaspora, to about 5 Million people (almost the same amount of Palestinians live within the Israeli borders) (*2).

In the wake of 1967 Arab-Israeli Six-Day War, UN Security Council unanimously passed the Resolution 242, calling for the cessation of the hostilities and stipulating:  (*3)
1. Withdrawal of all Israeli forces from the disputed territories.
2. Respect for the sovereignty of the territories.
3. Guaranteeing freedom of navigation through the international waterways in the area.
4. Achieving the just settlement of the refugee problem.
5. Guaranteeing the territorial inviolability and political independence of every State in the area.

This resolution became a foundation, and a reference point of the whole process of peace-talks, which have been conducted to a very unsatisfactory effect throughout these four decades (*4).

Since the Camp David talks in 1978, the hopes of the involved people rose periodically… but never lasted long, ruined by the inflexibility, or (let’s call it) stubbornness of the Israeli politicians, who insisted time and time again, on creating new Jewish settlements in the occupied Palestinian territories, and refusal of allowing any refugees to return.

Let’s be reminded at this moment that all the demands of the Resolution 242 were based on the condition, which read:
“(…) Emphasizing the inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by war (…)”.

Since the Peace-Process had been initiated, whole generations of the new refugees were born, and suffered their refugee fate.  The whole generations of the world’s spectators were born and matured waiting in vain (so far) for the right solution to the “Palestinian problem”.

We witnessed the terrorist acts of the PLO, plane hijacking, and bombings.  We witnessed the heavy-handed responses of the Israeli Security Forces, and counted dead civilians in Gaza and West Bank.  We witnessed The Noble Peace Price ceremony when former terrorist, Yasser Arafat became outspoken politician – a champion of his people.  We witnessed his untimely demise (poisoned by someone who had a stake in ending his charismatic leadership).  We witnessed the new initiatives brought to the table, and eventually rotting away, like sour grapes.
We witnessed sometimes resolute and moderate Israeli governments, and other times the likes of Tzipi Livni (an executioner of 1460 Palestinians during Cast Lead Campaign in 2008), or Benjamin Netanyahu, who got angry with President Obama, when the latter remarked that the Peace-Talks had to be based on the 1967 borders.

But sometimes it just looks like a bad case of “good cop – bad cop” routine, when the representatives of the US Governments on one hand push for the cessation of the settlements in the occupied territories, and on the other hand - veto the resolutions (or notions) condemning these settlements.

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All people have the right to have their own place on Earth.  To me, it’s an undisputable tenant of the civilization.  Jews have their state, and rightfully so.
But the same rule applies to the people who, like Jews, have been in Palestinian territories from the same, ancient times (or even earlier if we count Philistines as the Palestinian forefathers).  There is no logical, accepted by the World community, argument against the State of Palestine.

Against, it‘s only Israel – unfortunately supported in this issue by my own country – America.  The Obama Government (Susan Rice – the US Ambassador to the UN) warned that the US would veto the Palestinian Statehood in the UN.
According to Israeli spokesperson the only acceptable way of ending the 40 years old impasse is through the direct talks between Palestinians and Israelis…  Has it worked so far?  When the settlement are out of the question, and the borders of 1967 are out of the question (as un-defensible) – and the UN sanctioned statehood is out of the question… What’s left?

In his famous “olive branch” speech in Cairo, President Obama extended his hand to the Arab Nations and to the Palestinians:
“On the other hand, it is also undeniable that the Palestinian people – Muslims and Christians – have suffered in pursuit of a homeland.  For more than sixty years they have endured the pain of dislocation.  Many wait in refugee camps in the West Bank, Gaza, and neighboring lands for a life of peace and security that they have never been able to lead.  They endure the daily humiliations – large and small – that come with occupation.  So let there be no doubt: the situation for the Palestinian people is intolerable.  America will not turn our backs on the legitimate Palestinian aspiration for dignity, opportunity, and a state of their own. (…)That is in Israel’s interest, Palestine’s interest, America’s interest, and the world’s interest.  That is why I intend to personally pursue this outcome with all the patience that the task requires.  The obligations that the parties have agreed to under the Road Map are clear.  For peace to come, it is time for them – and all of us – to live up to our responsibilities.”
The United Nations Security Council vote will determine soon who stands for the Peace in the Middle East, and who wants to sacrifice it for the sake of the comfort of the current, aggressive Israeli government.

We all heard the catastrophic scenarios of what would have happened if Abbas fulfilled his promise and asked for the Statehood.  It just transpired as strong threats from the state of Israel.  But unfortunately the USA joined this bullying act, threatening with cutting the ‘foreign aid’ to Palestine, which alone would cripple the Palestine’s economy.  Israel on its account threatens with confiscating the revenues earned by West Bank and Gaza even farther increasing the Palestinian hardship.
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When are we going to stop this madness?

As I repeated time and time again: nothing is now the way it was before.  The World changes.
The World changes due to the Information Superhighway, better self-awareness of the people in previously remote, and oppressed by the Colonial Superpowers countries.
Thus the Arab Spring, and its execution – bringing shock and awe to all, who were afraid of extreme islamization, radicalization leading to terrorism…
Nothing like that happened (it still may…), and the people – protagonists of these epic turns of history – proved that they wanted the same as every American, German, or English… respect, sovereignty, independence…
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A few days ago, President Carter – the President who started the (in-) famous Peace-Process between Israel and Palestinians – stated clearly that: “As an alternative to a deadlock and a stalemate now, we reluctantly support the Palestinian move for recognition” (*6).

Reluctantly, or not – the support for the Palestinian Statehood is due now!

Nothing is now as it used to be.  Palestinians are not a bunch of terrorists, as the World viewed them 40 years ago.  They are just ‘dead tired’ people who want to be free and live in peace.  But if one pushes them too hard, they do not have much to loose.  Desperate people behave desperately.
On the same token, Israel is not a poor, battered “holocaust survival” any more, but a new champion for “Apartheid”.
Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said Wednesday that a unilateral declaration of a Palestinian state would have “dire consequences” (*6).

They have proven already, that they are not interested in the Peace-Process, or any sort of negotiations, but to preserve a convenient “status quo” by all cost.  Does the USA have to second it?

It’s time to stand by the principles of Democracy, and support the People who have been suffering long enough, too long in any understandable context – and support the move for the Palestinian Statehood.
The TIME is now.


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*1.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_refugee
*2.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_diaspora
*3.  http://daccess-dds-ny.un.org/doc/RESOLUTION/GEN/NR0/240/94/IMG/NR024094.pdf?OpenElement
*4.  http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6666393.stm
*5.  http://sweetness-light.com/archive/obamas-cairo-speech-the-transcript
*6.  http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/63481.html

911 Anniversary – Western and Other Worlds…

Anniversaries come and go.  All of them force us to reflect on the events, to speculate on the different courses the history (or only your history) might have taken, only if…

The 10th Anniversary of the Attack on the World Trade Center and Pentagon calls for such a reflection in all of us, not only in the States, but more or less, around the whole World. 

We all know what happened (maybe with an exception of some ‘conspiracy theorists’ who are simply oblivious to the facts).  It affected us all, directly, or indirectly.  The World, as we knew it before September 11, 2001 doesn’t exist any more. 

It fell victim of the attack and destruction of the World Trade center, at that day, along with about 3000 of human beings.  Although, from a 10-year perspective, this number (no matter how horrific it is for us), seems small, when compared to the number of all people who lost their lives, as a consequence of this atrocious act.

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It was a beautiful morning in New York.  Typical, late Summer day in New York City.  Clear air, wonderful visibility, completely cloudless sky…

Even before IT happened, my life took a un-happy turn…  I was “licking my psychological wounds” after having spent the preceding year Day Trading NASDAQ stocks in a downtown office.  It was only a year, but it coincided with the “Internet Bubble” burst, when all NASDAQ stocks behave like a bunch of broncos, jumping all over the place with no pattern. 

I looked through the office window on the steel and glass facade of the South Tower of the WTC, trying to find solace, in the rough marked conditions.  In the middle of August, after a year of a ‘crush’ course in trading (no pun intended), I finally had enough, returning to what was my primary vocation. 

On September 11, still immersed in a ‘self pity’ (caused by my market experiences), I woke up alerted by my wife’s slightly panicked phone call, after she saw the first plane hitting the World Trade Center tower.  I turned on the TV set and…  everything changed…

A couple of hours later, from the windows of my Upper East Side apartment (roughly 5 miles from the Ground Zero) I saw people looking like zombies…  The wind also brought the Smell.  Diluted along its 5-mile travel it wasn’t a stench anymore, it had almost subtle qualities.  I smelled it for the first time in my life.  It was so unique, so particular, that when few years later, while driving through some industrial quarters of Alexandria, Egypt, I had a whiff of something vaguely resembling it, my eyes watered instantly…  I had to stop for a moment, almost crushed by the gravity of this recollection.

And yet, a few hours after the collapse of the WTC towers, when zombie-like people, frightened, and confused, walked Uptown to their homes, in some Upper East Side restaurants, some Upper-East-Siders still enjoyed their drinks and oyster lunches… 

To me, the World had just stopped – for some others, is was almost ‘business as usual’…

Bin Laden, the mastermind of this attack, threatened to destroy our way of life…  As much as I hate to admit that, he succeeded in his devious plan.  Life in America, and in the most of the countries in the World has changed forever, in the aftermath of that attack.

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I do not want to dwell on the historical background of the Modern World’s Power distribution, nor to reinvent the history.  Yet, I would like to point out a few circumstances, which are responsible for creation of the ‘tinder box’ on which we all live.  It is as simple as that:

The superpowers of the Past, Colonial Era, like the UK, France, Spain, Italy worked ‘tirelessly’ for centuries on creating the hatred of the people in their colonies.  At that time the World was divided on 3 categories:

1. the colonial superpowers,

2. their subjects,

3. other countries, who were even too far, not significant strategically, inconveniently located, or simply too strong to become colonies.

Even after the French Revolution, the New France hadn’t abandoned its imperialistic appetites.  In the Napoleonic times the Caribbean Islands were swiped with, brutally dealt with, slaves uprisings - one after another.  The same fate was shared later by the Italian domain – Libya, English colonies in Far East, or French Indochina.

The times have changed, the super-powers and their appetites, stayed the same.  In the XX-th Century the short list of Super-powers was ‘enriched’ by the new Super-Power – the United States of America.

The times, with their growth of technology and communication, changed the colonial system.  It had to evolve, adjusting to the requirements of newly developed countries (former colonies).  Total control of these countries has proven to be too costly, completely ineffective, not to say impossible to maintain.  All of the former colonies have developed strong independence movement, and giving them their sovereignty became the only option left on a table.  And so it happened. 

The same happened more or less simultaneously in the Far East, the Arabic Countries of the Middle East, Latin America… Africa in general.

The UN welcomed the new countries, one by one.  In 1900 the World consisted of 57 countries and it’s domains.  In 2011 this number raised to 193, and we can count on enlarging it soon.

In most of the former colonies, the former colonial powers tried, and often succeeded, placing their puppets on the thrones of the new Kingdoms, or new military Dictators on chairs of the new “parliamentary democracies”.  Many of these countries, exploded in the long lasting wars with unspeakable atrocities committed by all sides of the newly developed conflicts.  Many, avoided the wars, diving in the decades of the internal oppressions – like in Libya, Egypt, Syria, Bahrain, etc.

When the conventional Colonial system ceased to exist, the new, economical, or “economically-ideological colonial system” replaced it.  Russia and China assured themselves access to resources in many countries on a ‘false pretense’ of helping them oppose the Western Imperialism.  Western countries used the same argument against Russian intrusion, sponsoring the opposition, or organizing the “coupe d’ètat”.

The World’s population rose from 1.6 Billion people in 1900 to 3.0 Billion people in 1960 and 6.75 Billion people in 2011.  Such a World needs tremendous amount of resources just to maintain its industrial (economical) growth. 

With the rise of the Multinational Corporations producing more and cheaper (and still on a quest to produce even more and even cheaper) the World’s balance has been slightly altered. 

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Most of the under-developed countries may benefit from the involvement of the Western Industry and its technology. 

May, does not mean, that they do. 

In most of the cases the deals with the Western Industries are not done by the Nations, but by the Dictatorial governments, who DO NOT REPRESENT the people, and have only their own interests in their minds.  In many cases these deals, these contracts, lead to exploitation of the people who are employed in he process, as well as exploitation of the environment.

And this is the culprit of the hostile attitude of the populations of so many underdeveloped countries toward the USA, Great Britain, France, etc., in general THE WEST. 

This is the main reason why the frustrated masses, who live on the verge of poverty in many of these countries, respond to the demagogy of the Al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations. 

Desperate people tend to behave desperately…

Even though American Presidents (even Bush Jr.) always stressed that “America has never been and never would be in a war with Islam”, the masses in the countries of Islam, indoctrinated as much as there are, do not believe it.

Yesterday, I saw a TV program, in which the journalist showed photographs of the exploding, and collapsing Twin Towers to Afghan people on the street.  The pictures were shown to completely random people (who would stop and agree to talk).  Most of them have never seen the images like that, and had no knowledge of the fact.  They had no knowledge of the fact, which was the cause of the 10 years of war.  They had no knowledge of the reason why the American and NATO forces have been in war with their country.

Everything what has been said about the WTC attack, and the Afghan War, and everything what has been done in relation to that, has been said and done on a premise, that everybody had known the facts pertaining to that.  However, it seems that the population of Afghanistan is missing the most crucial piece of information: WHY they have been in war…

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I can never forgive the organizers of the attack on WTC towers.  There is no argument anybody could produce to justify it.

What came afterwards, was just a reaction…

It cost us dearly:  we lost our personal freedoms with the implementation of the Patriot Act.

It cost us dearly:  we, Americans, have lost our ‘innocence’ being pushed into the Iraq war on “false pretenses” by the President Bush and V-Pres Chaney (we, as a nation have lost it once already – Vietnam War has been never totally digested, and justified, especially when 58 thousands of American lost their lives in it).

It cost us dearly:  6240 American soldiers lost their lives already (Afghanistan - 1766, Iraq - 4474).

It cost us dearly:  we can attribute some of the economical instability of the USA to the focus on the two UNWANTED wars, instead of the welfare of the NATION.

It cost the World dearly:  about a million of Iraqis perished in the unleashed sectarian violence, after the removal of Saddam Husein.  Countries in ruins.

_______

Ten years have past since the fall of the Twin Towers. 

So many events started on this September morning have the consequences, which are our lives now, and probably always will.

Every cataclysm, man made or otherwise, is an occasion to reflect on:

- was it preventable?

- can we prevent it in the future, and if so, how – by force or by creating better understanding between adversary societies, religions, economical systems…

Have we learned anything from it?

Libya – US politics: D. Welch and D. Kusinich involvment…

The Libyan conflict seems to proceed toward the only reasonable outcome – building of the new, democratic state in the post Gaddafi reality.
The war with the Gaddafi loyalists is not over.  Colonel himself hasn’t been found yet.  Although, from time to time we could hear his “barking”, and spewing hatred, communiques, promising a bloodbath to all who dared opposing him, he and his forces are less, and less likely to create any real thread to the will of the nation.
The city of Sirte, Colonel’s birthplace and the last stand of his supporters (also his possible place of hiding), received an ultimatum from the Rebel Forces: surrender before the Saturday (09.03) or face a bloody end of existence.

Learning on the example of Tunisia and Egypt, that the 2011 Arab Rebellions might be as fast as lightning, both America, and NATO reacted relatively fast to the call from the UN (resolution 1973) calling for “protection of the civilians by any means necessary”, and launched the campaign against Gaddafi forces, allowing the Rebels to advance, and eventually reach and take the city of Tripoli, with its vast archives full of proofs of inhumane atrocities committed against anybody who’s thinking didn’t go along the government indicated lines.

Gaddafi’s bureaucratic machine was very efficient, and documented in details the ways the regime acted during the 42 years of the Gaddafi’s “leadership”.  Although some members of the apparatus did their best to destroy the evidence, burning the whole buildings containing the archives, a lot of the paperwork fell in the hands of the Rebels, and later to the hands of journalists.  Every day of the ‘post Gaddafi’ era will be bringing some ground braking revelations.

One of these days is TODAY.
 

Al Jazeera News Team reported today on the documents found in the offices of the Intelligence Headquarters in Tripoli.  The building was evacuated in a hurry.  The personnel, fearing for their lives didn’t have enough time to set the place ablaze.

Usually, the news provided by Al Jazeera was credible, and easily confirmed by some other news sources.  This time, since they concern the newest development, confirming them is not possible.  I understand this limitation, and report it after Al Jazeera with such a waiver.  However, if the allegations suggested in the report are true, they are an evidence of nothing less, but treason, by two (at this point) representatives of the American Establishment: David Welch (former Assistant Secretary of the State), and Dennis Kucinich
(Democratic Congressman from the State of Ohio).

Before I attempt to comment on the findings, I will loosely repeat, what was reported by Al Jazeera:
____________
Retrieved from the abandoned Intelligence Headquarters in Tripoli documents suggest the high rank American politicians tried to help Gaddafi – prevent toppling of the regime.

Despite of Gaddafi’s anti-American rhetoric his regime was in direct contact with highly influential American figures, until just weeks ago.  In the offices of Abdullah Senussi (Gaddafi’s Head of intelligence Service)
Al Jazeera found detailed documents about communication between senior Libyan officials and David Welch (American diplomat who served as Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, as well as was instrumental in braking a deal between Libyan regime and the USA in 2008, ending years of histilities.
Currently D. Welch works for BECHTEL corporation, with $Billions in construction projects across the Middle East).
David Welch met with Gaddafi’s representatives in the Four Seasons Hotel in Cairo on August 02 this year.
At this meeting Welch advised Gaddafi’s team on ‘how to win a propaganda war’, suggesting some ‘confidence building measures’.  He also advised on ‘how to undermine the rebel movement with the possible assistance of foreign intelligence services, including Israel.

“Any information related to Al-Qaeda or other terrorist extremists organizations should be found and given to the American Administration, but only via intelligence agencies of either Israel, Egypt, Morocco or Jordan. America will listen to them… It is better to receive this information as if it originated from those countries”.

The documents also suggest how to take advantage of the current unrest in Syria:

“… the importance of taking advantage of the Syrian situation particularly regarding the double-standard policy adopted by Washington… the Syrians were never your friends and you would lose nothing from exploiting the situation there in order to embarrass the West.”

He also criticized the role of Qatar in the Arab Spring calling it ‘cynical’ – with a goal to divert the world’s attention from the unrest in Bahrain.

David Welch promised to present the matter to the American Administration, Congress, and other influential figures, and lobby for it.
According to Welch the solution of the conflict should be based on: Gaddafi stepping aside - but not relinquishing his powers.  Proposed by him solution is not along the official White House statement, which says that Gaddafi MUST STEP DOWN.
_____________________________________________

When the NATO was locked in the battle with the Gaddafi’s Regime, also other political figures in the US, gave their help to the Regime.

Representative Dennis Kucinich (Democratic Congressman from the State of Ohio) opposed the American and NATO involvement in the Libyan conflict from the beginning.  On March 18, when the US started implementing the No-Fly Zone in Libya (in accordance with UN Resolution 1973), Kucinich in his lengthy statement condemned the American “unlawful attack on a sovereign country” and suggested the impeachment procedure against the president Obama.

The same Dennis Kucinich is a subject of the discovered in the Intelligence Headquarters document.
The document in question is a letter addressed to Saif al-Islam al-Gaddafi – one of the Colonel’s sons, who is a subject of the International Criminal Court investigation – with the warrant issued for his capture.
The letter contains a summery of the conversation between the Representative Kucinich and the intermediary for the Gaddafi’s son.
The details relate to the Kucinich’s request to be provided with information, which could help to lobby the American Lawmakers to stop support for the Libyan Transitional Council, and put an end to the NATO airstrikes.  His inquiry suggested the existence of Al-Qaeda elements.

“Any corrupt (verifiable) acts by the Opposition leaders.  Include any personal motives for instance to make money or gain certain types of power.  Any known Al-Qaeda operating in the Opposition”?

He asked also for a specific info to be used to defend Saif al Gaddafi in ICC in Hague.

Finally, and more significantly, Kucinich asked for any evidence, which could be used to file lawsuits against the NATO and against the USA.
____________________________________

Let me be clear – the report provided by Al Jazeera is very disturbing.
If it’s unsubstantiated smear campaign, with a gain to discredit American politicians… It’s despicable and simply very low.

But, if the allegations contained in the Al Jazeera report, reported today in their News programming is true…
It would mean that some of our, American politicians (and I would like to believe, that only two) simply committed treason.  Let’s not be afraid of this word.  TREASON.
What they did, not only counteracts the agreed upon support for the Libyan Opposition, but undermines the official political position of the United States, and its President.

Quite recently the World learned with bewilderment, that American Political Trenches are so deeply dug, that the compromise across the party lines is virtually impossible.  We have learned that some Conservative politicians would rather see the Country fall in the long lasting recession (if we defaulted on our debts), just to prove their ‘unshaken’ convictions.
Now, we all learn, that there are also politicians who would risk ‘defacing’ American International Policy (if there is anything left of its face), just to feed their ego, or some convoluted private agendas.

David Welch is now a ‘private citizen’.  We know it, but when he meets with the foreign parties and acts like having the authority to negotiate, he creates different impression.  So, has he acted alone – with no authorization from the white House, or was it done to discuss “a Plan B”, and to create the situation of “full deniability” if it fails...

David Kucinich is not a private citizen.  He is a Congressman in the US Congress.  He is one of the 435 publicly elected representatives who are supposed to have the Country interest on their mind in whatever they say, or do.
I understand that some actions may be conducted by seemingly unimportant politicians, and then create something good, or something more important transpires… Such was a case of Representative Charlie Wilson (Democrat from Texas), whose unilateral action originated Operation Cyclone – the largest ever, covert operation resulting in arming the Afghan rebels with the weaponry to combat Soviet aircrafts.  His actions in the result helped bringing down the Soviet Empire to its knees.
But in case of David Kucinich… it looks like acting against his own Government, and the interests of his own Country…

Every war is ugly.  It is ugly while the war in on, and the people perish for no reason… But every war is probably more ugly for many years after the hostile activities are ceased, when the public opinion learns about the deceit, and conniving by all parties involved.

What are we going to learn about our involvement in the World’s affairs?  Is it going to help us understand the World’s complexity, or we will learn over and over that the “particular interests of some individuals” may be the driving force of the countries politics.
Particular interests of the individuals, or very small groups – versus the billions who are only on the receiving end, without a chance to say otherwise…
++

US crisis of irresponsibility – debt ceiling scandal – food for thought…

On Friday, August 5, 2011, one of the most prestigious credit rating agencies: Standard & Poor’s downgraded the status of the USA from the “AAA”, to “AA+”. 

It happened after (lasting several months) bickering about rising of the US debt ceiling.  What is guaranteed by the 14th amendment to the US Constitution (honoring of the public debt, which has already incurred), and what has been done by every US President (disregarding their party affiliations) suddenly became a problem to the Tea Party controlled Congress, and in fact, became a threat to the American status in the World, and the World’s Economy at large, in consequence.

One cannot overstate the importance of what has happened, even though by itself it may be belittled and overlooked by many.  However, the fact of downgrading of the USA by S&P is just a resultant of the few decades of the US government bad economical decisions.  I would go as far as calling it a SYSTEMIC ERROR.  American form of the aggressive capitalism has slipped out of control.  It has created the mess we are in now.   

It’s time to connect the dots and try to understand what has led a great country like the USA to the state of disarray we experience right now.  Let’s step slowly backwards looking at the milestones of the demise…

            1.             Let’s look at the misunderstood and misleading at the same time, downgrade of the US status from AAA to AA+.  Reducing of the rating is just a simple indication, that the creditors’ confidence in the US ability to pay timely the principal debt, and the financing charges is somewhat compromised.  The US downgrade was followed today (Monday, 08.08) by farther downgrade of the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, also to AA+ status. 

It is not surprising that when the US debt is approaching 100% of the GDP, our stellar credit rating couldn’t survive.  However, what is really surprising (and not only to me) is, that sliding in the debt with an ever increasing speed, and having barely survived the recession of 2008 – in which we were pushed in part by uncontrolled behavior of the aforementioned Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the “sub-prime mortgage crisis” – didn’t rise the credit rating agencies alarms flags.  It seems like America’s policy makers, along with the administrators of the credit rating agencies, lived in the “all American Happy Bubble” or other sort of “parallel reality”.  America of 2008 wasn’t the same country, which as ELDORADO, appeared in the dreams of all “would be” immigrants around the world.

Where were these credit rating agencies when “all hell broke loose” and the country dived, head first, in the strongest recession in our lifetimes?  (Hopefully we won’t need to downgrade it to the status of the “second strongest” recession, when the one in the making right now “exceeds all expectations”).

            2.            As I mentioned at the beginning, the obligation to honor all, already committed to debts is a Constitutional requirement.  America has never defaulted on its obligations, even though the congress had to vote on raising of the debt ceiling every time it happened.  It worked without a ”hiccup” no matter who was at the White House, or who controlled House or Senate.  President Reagan raised the debt ceiling 18 times (*2), George W Bush did it 5 times (around $4 Trillion) (*3).  And suddenly, when President Obama needed to raise the debt ceiling to cover already approved by the Congress expenses… the Tea Party Republicans threatened to force the country into the DEFAULT instead.  

The Fiscal Responsibility – the slogan by which the Tea Party members allegedly “live and act” – by itself, is a very noble idea.  It’s actually the only right idea, which should govern the actions of the Washington politicians on both sides of the isle. 

All countries in the World have some debt.  Credit is one of the fundamentals of the ‘free market economies’.  However in general a certain level of the debt becomes the unsustainable debt.  The economists do not agree on any arbitrary numbers, but definitely the public debt approaching the amount of the GDP in the case of most of the countries is UNSUSTAINABLE. 

In January 2001, at the end of the second term of the President Clinton (D) the US National Debt was $5.7 Trillion (*1) – what corresponded with 55.3% of our GDP ($10.3 Trillion).

Right after that the “911” reset our dreams, and reset the economy – the instability era commenced – enhanced by two wars - unwanted, and leading to nothing (except exhausting our Treasury.

In January 2009, at the end of the second term of the President Bush (R) the US National Debt was $10.6 Trillion (*1) – what corresponded with 75.2% of our GDP ($14.1 Trillion).

President “Bush the Second”, without hesitation placed us on a slippery slope of spending beyond our means. 

President Obama has been dealt the very unattractive hand of cards.  Fully blown recession… plummeting markets… “sub-prime mortgage” toxic assets leading to the collapse of the banking system… fall of the automotive industry…  It was the end of the World we all knew.  We were sailing in the uncharted territories.

According to the principles of the Keynesian economy the only thing, which might have had any positive effect on the ailing (read: dying) US economy was “the transfusion” of money pumped directly in it. 

The plan bailing out the banking system (and the automotive industry) suggested by the previous president economical team, was implemented by Obama.  It was supposed to work… but did it work?   

No one can actually tell if without it we wouldn’t slip in even deeper recession than the one we experienced.  No one can tell, and yet the Republicans haven’t lost a single moment without bickering about it and accusing Obama of socialist tendencies (since the “people” had a stake in the “helped” industries – at least until the loans were paid off). 

At the same time the Republican Party (who for decades already was leaning toward the protection of the wealthiest layers of the American Society) forced the President to extend the, so-called, Bush Tax Cuts for the next few years, depriving the economy of additional $800 Billion (the bush Tax Cuts cost the economy roughly of $2.5 Trillion – through 2010) (*4).

As a result of the slow recovery, and the partisan tag-of-war, the country ended up where it is right now – with $14.3 Trillion of the outstanding Public Debt (Republicans do not compromise on the tax cuts, but have a great appetite to reduce or totally cancel the entitlements like Social Security, MedicAid, and MediCare, which, although expensive, provide a safety net for those who are not in the 1% rich margin of the society). 

In 2010 the people spoke… America voted for a change… any change.  The voters brought to the Congress young and aggressive Tea Party members who have only one goal:  lowering taxes, lowering spending – by any means, sacrificing anything and anybody in the process.  These young Republicans do not care if they would be reelected.  They are on a mission – reduce the government spending and force the new law preventing the government from doing what the government is elected for – taking care of the country’s citizens, including those who are the most vulnerable:  poor, elderly, students…

Recently Senator McCain felt offended after Senator Kerry blamed the Tea Party for the S&P’s downgrade saying: "Lately the Democrats have been calling us terrorists, so we need to lower that level of rhetoric." (*5)

Well, the whole country was held hostage by a group of unscrupulous Tea Party, inflexible members – it wasn’t a ‘fiscal responsibility’, but extortion.

             3.            When I was growing up I learned about the “American Dream”, about the “land of prosperity”, about the “land of endless opportunities”…  It was a place, where in the sixties, Herb & Dorothy Vogel (a librarian and a postal worker), could live on one, modest salary in New York City, spending the other on purchases of the modern art from the emerging artists (about 4000 works over 45 years). 

Unemployment was low, almost not present in “all white” neighborhoods…  it was a time when the “economical” cars had “only” 302 cubic inches engines, to save on gas… Yes it was a fuel crisis, but otherwise all the principles of the American dream were accessible, and unshaken.

In 1969, the top tax bracket was 77% of the income with 14% in the lowest bracket.  And America didn’t have a revenue crisis. 

And then in 1981 came the Republican President Ronald Reagan and in 8 years of his presidency reduced the top tax bracket to 38% with 11% of the lowest bracket.  It is the time, when the America started having the fiscal downturn.  The previous president, President Carter passed America to Reagan with only 35% of GDP debt.  It is rather symptomatic that the most praised by Republicans President (who’s famous one liner has been repeated since, zillion of times by the young Republicans – “The Government is the problem”) is responsible for the beginning of the demise of fiscal statue of the country.

I was observing the months of “debt ceiling scandal” with total disbelief…  I would like to have a trust in the elected public servants.  However, they have proved that it is completely impossible.  I still hope that it may change, that the American Voter is smart enough to see who is on the side of the 300 Millions of the US Citizens and wants to preserve the benefits for those who worked their whole lives, and need them at their Golden Age. 

________________________

Everybody understands (or they should), that there are no issues sacred enough not to be touched.  The country needs ravenous, not only cuts, so the TAX REFORM has to happen, and has to happen soon.  The Richest and the most privileged have to start, again, paying their honest share.  As far as I know – many members of this group do not mind repaying the society for their fortune.  It’s just a good karma…

We have to get rid of the subsidies to the oil industry, finally, when the barrel of crude is between $80-110.

Both MedicAid and MadiCare have to be reformed, because the bureaucracy inherited from the period when these programs were incepted, kills the effectiveness of these programs. 

We have in America the most expensive, and yet, not working properly health care industry.  This requires an overhaul.

The credit rating of the country has been downgrading to AA+.  The biggest US creditor, China, impatiently reminded the US of its obligations.  Are the finance charges going to be raised – probably not.  So hopefully, with a slap on the wrist, we can start putting our fiscal house in order. 

It’s not going to be easy, since the question remains: Are we going to experience the double dip recession?  After the American Debt Ceiling crisis, and the European Euro-Zone near collapse – the World’s economy may be in such a vulnerable shape that the current CORRECTION of the major market indices may be a beginning of the long lasting DEPRESSION.  Corrections happen, sometimes deep, and painful, but they are needed to deflate overbought industrial sectors.  Especially in the times as uncertain as nowadays the “market bubbles” are dangerous and have to be periodically removed. 

The market sold off across the board.  All markets in the World lost a lot of their value.  However, the US Treasury Bonds seem to be an attractive article, suggesting that the S&P downgrade has been already calculated in the market, and right now the whole World’s economy is the main concern of the traders.

Unfortunately, the Stock Market in general, as regulated as it is nowadays, driven by the resultant of the individual idiosyncrasies of the traders, is a very negative force in any economically unstable situation.  In such times an old rule: “Anyone’s loss is Someone’s gain”, doesn’t really apply.  Overacting market can and often does deepen the economical crisis. 

For some reason, a common knowledge of this fact doesn’t prevent that from happening. 

One may just hope…

____________________________________________________

*1 - http://www.treasurydirect.gov

*2 - http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/171871-democrats-cite-reagan-in-arguing-for-debt-ceiling-increase

*3 - http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2011/04/14/158424/republican-leaders-debt-limit-hypocrisy/

*4 - http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2011/06/07/237560/10-years-bush-tax-cuts/

*5 - http://interaksyon.tv/article/10376/us-lawmakers-trade-blame-for-credit-downgrade

US crisis of irresponsibility – XIV Amendment solution?

Clock is ticking, counting out the last days of the era of the US superiority in the World.  What we have been witnessing in the recent weeks in the American political theater is nothing short of the PARTISAN FISCAL IRRESPONSIBILITY. 

America is in debt.  Most of the countries are.  This is nothing new, nor exceptional.  But when the publicly owned debt approaches the amount of the GDP – it puts us in the position not much better than the one of Portugal, Ireland, and Greece (with the newest shaky member – Cyprus).

All our Presidents so far have raised the “debt ceiling” repeatedly (president Reagan did it 18 times in his 8 years of presidency) without as much as a cry from the Congress.  Although the fact of increasing of the Government debt is not something we should be proud of, the obligations, which have been already approved must (I stress the word MUST) be honored and paid.  We can argue as long as the political climate allows, on the budget and the ways of reducing the crippling debt (43 cents of each Dollar spent are borrowed), but it shouldn’t have any bearing on fulfilling the obligations, to which we are already committed.

As President Obama said yesterday, “there are many ways of getting out of this crisis”, some might have breathed easier.  But until the actual, constructive plan for resolving this congressional impasse is approved by the politicians on both sides of the isle, we are getting dangerously closer to the World’s Financial Armageddon.

This crisis has been belittled by many who couldn’t understand it’s true gravity.  Some even came out with the “silver bullet” solution.  This mysterious “silver bullet” is supposed to be the “XIV Amendment to the US Constitution”. 

Let’s have a look at the document, in question:

Section 4:
“The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by the law, including debts incurred for payments of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned. (…)

Section 5:
The Congress shall have power to enforce, by appropriate legislation, the provisions of this article.”

This is the letter of the law.  Although is reassures the legality of the public financial obligations, it leaves the matter in the hands of the Congress. 

It would be completely unconstitutional (and thus open for any challenges in court) for the President to invoke the XIV Amendment and unilaterally raise the debt ceiling.  The matter has to go through its normal, congressional channels.

The impasse continues… Clock is ticking…

Let me end this short note paraphrasing the lyrics of the popular in the eighties song by Sting:
“I am sure the Republicans love their children too…”

Gaza Strip - victim of an illegal siege...

Gaza Strip has become one of the most discussed topics among the progressive crowd.  There have been many aspects of Palestinian people situation, which stirred the public opinion in the recent years. 

To name a few:

Israeli occupation of Gaza Strip and West Bank and its legality;

Oslo 1993 and the shift of security responsibilities to the Palestinians;

Yasser Arafat, and the PLO;

Road-map to the Two-State-Solution;           

Hamas and Fatah in the context of security threat;

Intifadas and the right of Palestinian people to oppose the occupation;

Israeli “deterrence policy” and issue of “disproportional force”;

Naval Blockade of Gaza and a land siege of Gaza…

The Gaza Blockade and its legality has been a subject argued by scholars, legal experts, and many other non-professionals.  It has been discussed as long as it lasts, already more than 4 years. 

While the discussions continue, the inhabitants of the Gaza Strip are deprived of the fundamental, human rights.  They do not have the running water for many hours daily, along with the rolling blackouts.  They do not have enough supplies.  They do not have the right to build or repair their dwellings when the houses are destroyed by gunships during the frequent raids of IDF (with a “crown achievement” at the turn of 2007 and 2008 – Operation Cast Lead – during which 1460 Palestinian civilians were killed, and the whole infrastructure of the country ruined). 

The Gaza Blockade was originally imposed by Israel on Gaza to prevent the weapon smuggling into Gaza. 

At least it was it’s official explanation fed to the World’s media.  The true meaning of the Blockade however, and its effect on the people who are subjected to it, was conveniently belittled and/or omitted from the main stream of World’s news feeds. 

And then, in May 2010, the international “Gaza Freedom Flotilla” consisting of 6 ships departing from the Turkish ports attempted to break the Blockade.  The ships carried international supplies, tones of humanitarian aid, and hundreds of the Pro-Palestinian activists who were determined to educate the public opinion about the issue, break the Blockade, or…

…on May 31, many died trying.  After unsuccessful trials to intimidate the Flotilla crews, and stop the advancement, under the cover of night, the IDF boarded the biggest of the six ships MV Mavi Marmara, descending the commandos from the helicopters.  In the result of this raid, 9 of the activists have lost their lives.  All ships were hauled to the Israeli ports and the activists were interned for weeks.

Gene was out of the bottle.  The public opinion in the whole world (including Israel) responded firmly condemning the typical for all recent IDF actions – disproportional use of force. 

A year later, in June 2011, the new “Freedom Flotilla 2 – Stay Human” was formed, with the same humanitarian goal in mind, attempting to deliver the much needed supplies and medicines.  Initially the new Flotilla consisted of 10 ships with a 1000 activists on board, but due to the constant intimidation, and sabotage, the number of participant’s shrunk to fewer than 300, with a few dozen journalists.  All acts of sabotage were alleged to the IDF operatives, since in many cases, trained divers damaged the ships propellers, and in other cases the hauls got compromised.

For a long time before the organizing the flotilla, Israel unleashed the PR campaign warning the World about the “collective responsibility” if any of the activists taking part in the attempt gets hurt.  They announced also intention of stopping the Flotilla by the non-military means.

Several complains about the technical state of the ships were filed, alleging the non-sea-worthiness of the ships participating in the action.  Rigorous inspection proved it to be just an attempt to prevent them from the departure.

The Flotilla was supposed to set sail from the Greek ports.  Unfortunately the Greek authorities succumbed to the Israeli warnings and took action against the docked ships, forbidding them to exit.  The “Audacity of Hope” – the American flagship carrying a few dozen of American activists have been stopped by the Greek Coast Guard shortly before reaching the International waters, and it’s captain has been arrested (*1).  A French ship whose voyage originated in Corsica was stopped and interned while refueling in Crete.

To add the insult to the injury, several Western governments, also joined Israelis in piling the obstacles in front of the participants.  While the Great Britain, Netherlands, France, Canada, limited themselves to officially discouraging the activists from taking part in the Flotilla, the U.S. State Department warned Americans taking part in the flotilla that they may violate U.S. civil and criminal statue against delivering material support to terrorist organizations, and may face prosecution (*2).  In a travel warning, the State Department further advised U.S. citizens that they could face arrest, prosecution, and deportation by Israel if they join the flotilla (*3).

Is the Freedom Flotilla 2 going to get to Gaza eventually?  I doubt it.  But, did it achieve any of it’s goals?  The answer to this question is certainly positive.  It raised the World’s awareness of this severe and prolonged problem, again.

________________________

As I mentioned at the beginning, the legality of the Blockade itself has been debated vigorously, since it’s inception.  So, is it legal or not legal in the light of the international law?  Like in the criminal cases tried in the court of law, the judges (the public) have been influenced by the media and the spokespersons of the involved parties, for years. 

We know the reason, why originally the Gaza Blockade has been imposed – to prevent arms trafficking to the Hamas, who is recognized as a terrorist organization by the Israel (and America, but recognized as a legitimate Palestinian authority, democratically elected, by many other countries).

We all heard about a few Israeli soldiers who were kidnapped, tortured, and killed by the Hamas (or sometimes other extreme militant group), one of them is still in captivity today.  At the same time there are tens of thousand guerrilla fighters and civilians imprisoned for many years already in the Israeli prisons – without the hope for the timely release.

We all heard about a number of crude rockets fired from Gaza inside the territory of Israel, and the resulting from that deaths… a very small number of deaths, since the rockets are crude, imprecise, and do not go too far, and the Israelis can hide to the already built concrete bunkers when the attack starts (whereas when the Palestinian territory is attacked in retaliation, no one can hide anywhere – no one can build a bunker, since there is a ban on the concrete and other building materials, imposed by Israel). 

The Goldstone report, which findings shook the World’s opinion, brought up the accusation of the human rights violations and the war crimes allegations – all committed by the Israeli IDF troops during the Cast Lead campaign.  Israeli troops used the helicopter gunships and high precision bombs, and the civilian casualties just kept piling up – some say: purposely targeted.  But even the Goldstone report found that Hamas racket barrages (resulting in killing civilians), by their rudimentary design, and inability of the precision targeting, targeted civilians (since they could not discriminate between targets), and qualified as war crimes.

We all see, that both sides are guilty in this conflict.  Who is more guilty: to me the answer is simple – the side which uses disproportional force as a deterrence tool.  The Israeli Government officials have stated very often, that “they want to use enough force, so the future generations of the Palestinians will think twice before attacking any single Israeli target”.   This is the strategy, which has been efficiently appropriated from… the Nazis.  This is the strategy, which was used during the Second World War by the army of Adolf Hitler in Poland, Russia, and then in the Western countries as well.  For every attack on the Nazi property or a soldier, a group (might have been 50-100) of civilians was rounded up and stood up against a wall, and shot dead.  

This is the same deterrence strategy.  Did it work for Germans during the WWII?...  Is it so appealing, that any sane politician can have a desire to implement it?

For people who are familiar with the WWII, there are some other analogies, quite obvious, between what is happening to Gaza with it’s inhabitants, and the Jewish Ghetto in Warsaw (*4), where about 400,000 Jews were placed, without the right to travel, nor getting out of Ghetto.  Nazis also blocked any supplies to the Ghetto; there was a scarcity of food, no running water, and rolling blackouts.  There were countless raids of the soldiers, and systematic destruction of the infrastructure and the inhabitants…  It truly resembles the Blockade we observe now in case of Gaza.  Time has changed.  Roles have changed.  Now the Oppressed are the Oppressors.

_________________________

But what about the original question – is the Gaza Blockade, imposed in 2007 by Israel on the Gaza legal, or not?

Unfortunately, even before considering the Blockade itself the question about the legitimacy of the occupation of the Gaza and the West Bank arises.  We struggled with this issue already (I talked about it on May 22, 2011, in the article: “Does Palestine have a future? USA – Israel relationship – addendum”).

I will just quote again a fragment from the paper “Israel’s Borders Under International Law” (01.2007) by Anthony D’Amato, who is the Leighton Professor of Law at Northeastern University School of Law:

Point 9:    “(…) undeniable fact that the Kellogg-Briand Peace Pact of 1928, as definitively interpreted by the International Tribunal at Nuremberg in 1948 has abolished forever the idea of acquisition of territory by military conquest.  No matter who was the aggressor, international borders cannot change by the process of war.  Resort to war is itself illegal, and while self-defense is of course legal, a successful campaign of self-defense cannot extend so far as to constitute a new war of aggression all its own.  And if it does, the land taken may at best be temporarily occupied, but cannot be annexed. (…)  The legal boundaries of Israel and Palestine remain today exactly as they were delimited in Resolution 181.”(*5)

For argument’s sake, let’s disregard the conclusion of this paper, and numerous other studies. 

Putting the illegality of the Gaza occupation aside, let’s look at the other aspects related to the Blockade itself.

Gaza Strip is a tiny piece of land, 28 miles long, with the area of roughly of 139 sq miles and inhabited by circa 1.66 Million people.  It borders with Israel on 2 sides (North and East), with Egypt on 1 side (South),

and on the fourth side (West) is the shore of Mediterranean See.  In 2007, after the Hamas (democratically elected) became the Gaza’s Government, Israel established a complete naval blockade, as well closed all the borders with Israel (to stop and prevent the arms traffic to Gaza, as official statement read).  Egypt, participating in this siege closed its border with Gaza (Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman also cooperated with Israel on destroying numerous tunnels breaching the Egypt-Gaza border).

Israel claims that it imposed the blockade on Gaza in accordance with the international law - the law of blockade, which was derived from customary international law and codified in the 1909 Declaration of London.  It was updated in 1994 in a legally recognized document called the “San Remo Manual on International Law Applicable to Armed Conflicts at Sea”.

Shortly after the “boarding of MV Mavi Marmara by IDF commando” incident, the Reuters published one of the probably most cited articles on the issue (although very conveniently forgetful of facts): “Q&A: Is Israel’s naval blockade of Gaza legal?”, by Jonathan Saul (*6).  The article based its conclusions on loose interpretation of the “San Remo Manual on International Law Applicable to Armed Conflicts at Sea”.

General public never heard, nor read the document referred to, in this article.  Using it as a legal ground for the explanation, omitting the certain aspects of this, concise and not complicated paper, is just manipulative and misleading (*7).

And again, before we look at the particular points of this “Manual” and their application, we should ask if this Manual applies to the situation of the Gaza Blockade.  The San Remo Manual governs the behavior of the

hostile parties in the situation in which the LAWS OF WAR are in force.  It requires the actual proclamation of the war between states. 

According to mentioned already Anthony D'Amato, a professor of international law at Northwestern University School of Law, this is not a case.  Israel is in conflict with Hamas, and Hamas is not even a state.  D’Amato (quoted after The Washington Post - *8) stated that instead, the law of the Geneva Conventions would apply (*9).  

Putting this technicality aside (although it, by itself resets the view on the Blockade) we may examine the application of the particular points of the San Remo Manual.

A violation of any of the sections of this Manual would be a Violation of the International Law by the party imposing such a blockade (Israel) – deeming the Blockade itself illegal.  One cannot ‘chose and pick’ some regulation, while disregarding other, less convenient rules (*7).

PART I : GENERAL PROVISIONS

SECTION I : SCOPE OF APPLICATION OF THE LAW
1. The parties to an armed conflict at sea are bound by the principles and rules of international humanitarian law from the moment armed force is used.
2. In cases not covered by this document or by international agreements, civilians and combatants remain under the protection and authority of the principles of international law derived from established custom, from the principles of humanity and from the dictates of the public conscience.

***** The application of this section already shows shortcomings.  The article stipulates the necessity to adhere to the Humanitarian laws – like the Fourth Geneva Convention, which specifies that the belligerents cannot restrict food supplies, medicines and other aid; cannot obstruct medical evacuations; cannot prevent civilians from leaving the war zone; and cannot prevent civilians from pursuing their livelihoods.  The Israeli blockade violates all of these precepts.  In addition, neutral organizations including the International Committee of the Red Cross and Amnesty International have declared the blockade to be a form of “collective punishment” and a clear and flagrant violation of Israel’s obligations under the Geneva Convention.

PART IV : METHODS AND MEANS OF WARFARE AT SEA

SECTION II : METHODS OF WARFARE
Blockade

102. The declaration or establishment of a blockade is prohibited if:
(a) it has the sole purpose of starving the civilian population or denying it other objects essential for its survival; or
(b) the damage to the civilian population is, or may be expected to be, excessive in relation to the concrete and direct military advantage anticipated from the blockade.
103. If the civilian population of the blockaded territory is inadequately provided with food and other objects essential for its survival, the blockading party must provide for free passage of such foodstuffs and other essential supplies, subject to:
(a) the right to prescribe the technical arrangements, including search, under which such passage is permitted; and
(b) the condition that the distribution of such supplies shall be made under the local supervision of a Protecting Power or a humanitarian organization which offers guarantees of impartiality, such as the International Committee of the Red Cross.
104. The blockading belligerent shall allow the passage of medical supplies for the civilian population or for the wounded and sick members of armed forces, subject to the right to prescribe technical arrangements, including search, under which such passage is permitted.

*****             102a – The Gaza population HAS BEEN DENIED objects essential for its survival.

Dov Wiesglass, the Israeli official and aid to Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert stated the intention of the blockade was "to put the Palestinians on a diet, but not to make them die of hunger." (*10) – violation of the Fourth Geneva Convention – Part III, Article 55 (*11).

102b – the damage to the population IS EXCESSIVE in relation to the concrete and military advantage.

103 – the blocking party HASN’T PROVIDED FREE PASSAGE of the foodstuffs and other essential supplies – the ships are not allowed in and on land transports are denied entry.

104 – Israel CONTINUOUSLY BLOCKS the medical supplies - violation of the Fourth Geneva Convention – Part III, Article 56 (*12).

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Even if it may be argued that the implementation of the Blockade on Gaza wasn’t in violation of the International Law, and even if it may be argued that attack on MV Mavi Marmara on international waters wasn’t in violation of the International Law (according to the San Remo manual – the ships clearly manifested the desire to breach the blockade) – the abuses of the Humanitarian Law in all aspects of the Blockade are in clear violation of that International Law. 

Gene is out of the bottle. 

The Public awareness grows with every highly publicized, new detail of the conflict.

The World’s Public Opinion (including Israeli) recognizes that the most basic rights of the Palestinians have been affected, revoked, by the occupier, and the secure and peaceful lives of the Palestinians, subjected to the Blockade and other atrocities, have been disturbed.  The Public pressure on the governments grows day by day. 

Although discouraged by the stiff statements of the US and British Government officials, the Palestinians will seek the political recognition for the State of Palestine during the September Session of the UN.  The World’s Public opinion is already on their side.  How is it going to influence the UN decision? 

The UN Secretary General, serving his second term at this point, sided with Israel on the issue of the Freedom Flotilla.  Is he going to be more open on the issue of the recognition of the State of Palestine – before the “Two State Solution” is successfully implemented (if ever)?

Time will tell. 

However, when dealing with ‘unwilling’ party (like the Israeli government of PM Netanyahu), even the simple and logical solutions become impossible. 

It’s time for the Public Opinion to be heard stronger and louder. 

It’s the only hope of THE SUPPRESSED.

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*1 - http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/07/02/israel.gaza.flotilla/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

*2 - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-28/u-s-lawmakers-say-americans-in-gaza-flotilla-may-be-prosecuted.html

*3 - http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/US-Warns-Americans-Against-Joining-Gaza-Aid-Flotilla-124393009.html

*4 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warsaw_Ghetto

*5 - http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=%20956143

*6 - http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/06/02/us-israel-flotilla-gaza-idUSTRE65133D20100602

*7 - http://www.icrc.org/ihl.nsf/FULL/560?OpenDocument

*8 - http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/01/AR2010060102934.html?sid=ST2010053101699

*9 - http://www.icrc.org/ihl.nsf/WebList?ReadForm&id=380&t=art

*10 - http://sabbah.biz/mt/archives/2010/06/08/gaza-blockade-legal-hardly/

*11 - http://www.icrc.org/ihl.nsf/WebART/380-600062?OpenDocument

*12 - http://www.icrc.org/ihl.nsf/WebART/380-600063?OpenDocument